News & Insights

Washington, D.C. – Following House passage of the bipartisan Developing Overseas Mineral Investments and New Allied Networks for Critical Energies (DOMINANCE) Act, National Association of Manufacturers President and CEO Jay Timmons released the following statement:

“China’s dominance of critical mineral supply chains poses a growing threat to America’s manufacturing competitiveness, economic security and technological leadership—at a time when manufacturers need reliable access to these materials more than ever. The bipartisan DOMINANCE Act is an important step toward countering that threat by strengthening partnerships with trusted allies and expanding access to the critical minerals manufacturers need to compete and win.

“Manufacturers have urged policymakers to advance a comprehensive critical minerals strategy, and we thank Reps. Young Kim (R-CA) and Ami Bera (D-CA) for their leadership on this bipartisan legislation. The vulnerabilities in our mineral supply chains are real, and the cost of inaction is rising. We urge the Senate to move quickly to advance the DOMINANCE Act and help secure the critical mineral resources that power innovation, strengthen manufacturing in America and support a higher quality of life for all Americans.”

Background

In March, the NAM released its strategy for a comprehensive, modern critical minerals policy that will secure access to key inputs for the manufacturing industry and the nation—one that generates new pipelines for critical mineral projects at home while securing diversified access to vital manufacturing inputs sourced globally.

The DOMINANCE Act builds on the NAM’s policy recommendations by:

• Facilitating cooperation on joint projects with partners, including through cost-sharing agreements, political risk insurance, pricing mechanisms and procurement;
• Strengthening investment protections in partner governments;
• Establishing a Critical Minerals Mining Fellowship Program to help expand the manufacturing workforce; and
• Coordinating standards to promote a predictable and transparent regulatory environment for critical mineral supply chains.

Ahead of the vote, the NAM urged House members to vote “yes” on the DOMINANCE Act.

-NAM-

The National Association of Manufacturers is the largest manufacturing association in the United States, representing small and large manufacturers in every industrial sector and in all 50 states. Manufacturing employs nearly 13 million men and women, contributes $2.96 trillion to the U.S. economy annually and accounts for nearly 52% of private-sector research and development. The NAM is the powerful voice of the manufacturing community and the leading advocate for a policy agenda that helps manufacturers compete in the global economy and create jobs across the United States. For more information about the NAM or to follow us on Twitter and Facebook, please visit www.nam.org.

Employment Report: Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 172,000 in May, coming in above expectations. Meanwhile, March’s job gain was revised upward by 29,000 to a gain of 214,000, while April’s job gain was revised upward by 64,000 to 179,000 jobs. The 12-month average stands at 42,000 job gains per month. Leisure and hospitality exhibited the most significant job gain, adding 70,000 in May. At the same time, the unemployment rate stayed the same from April at 4.3%, while the labor force participation rate was unchanged at 61.8% but is down from 62.4% in May 2025.

Manufacturing employment stepped up by 7,000 in May after staying the same in April. On the other hand, the collective job gains in March and April of 13,000 were revised upward by 2,000 jobs to an increase of 15,000 jobs. Manufacturing employment is down 46,000 over the year. Durable goods manufacturing employment rose by 17,000 in May, while nondurable goods employment fell by 10,000. The most significant gain in manufacturing in May occurred in fabricated metal product manufacturing, which added 6,700 jobs over the month. Meanwhile, the most significant loss occurred in plastics and rubber products manufacturing, which shed 6,100 jobs over the month.

The employment-population ratio edged up 0.1 percentage point from April to 59.2% in May but is down 0.5 percentage points from a year ago. Meanwhile, employed persons who are part-time workers for economic reasons fell by 137,000 from April to 4.8 million in May and are up from 4.6 million in May 2025. Native-born employment is up 294,000 from April but down 396,000 over the year. Meanwhile, foreign-born employment is down 176,000 in May and 107,000 over the year. At the same time, the native-born unemployment rate is up 0.1 percentage point over the year to 4.2% in May, while the foreign-born unemployment rate is down 0.2 percentage points to 3.5%.

Average hourly earnings for all private nonfarm employees rose 0.3%, or 12 cents, reaching $37.53. Over the past year, earnings have grown 3.4%. The average workweek for all employees stayed the same at 34.3 hours and was unchanged at 40.4 hours for manufacturing employees.

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey: Job openings for manufacturing rose by 24,000 to 474,000 in April. At the same time, the March job openings level of 450,000 was revised downward from 462,000 in the previous report. Nondurable goods openings in April stayed the same at 153,000, while durable goods job openings moved up 25,000 to 321,000. The manufacturing job openings rate ticked up to 3.6% from 3.4% in March and was up from 2.9% the previous year. The rate for nondurable goods manufacturing was unchanged at 3.1%, and the durable goods manufacturing rate increased 0.2 percentage points to 3.9%.

In the larger economy, the number of job openings advanced to 7.6 million, a gain of 731,000 from March and 520,000 higher than the previous year. The job openings rate stepped up to 4.6% from 4.2% in March and 4.3% in April 2025. This data reflects an overall labor market that has eased back to pre-pandemic levels but continues to remain relatively tight from a historical perspective.

The number of hires in the overall economy declined 419,000 to 5.1 million in April and 275,000 below the previous year. The hires rate for the overall economy moved down 0.3 percentage points in April to 3.2%. Meanwhile, the hires rate for manufacturing edged down to 2.3% from 2.4% in March and 2.5% in April 2025. The hires rate for durable goods was unchanged at 2.1%, while the hires rate for nondurable goods fell 0.6 percentage points to 2.4%.

In the larger economy, total separations, which include quits, layoffs, discharges and other separations, decreased 399,000 from March to 5.0 million and 292,000 from the previous year. The total separations rate declined 0.3 percentage points to 3.1% for the overall economy but stayed the same for manufacturing at 2.2%, though down from 2.5% the year prior. Within that rate, layoffs and discharges edged up 5,000 in April for manufacturing, while quits ticked down by 1,000. The quit and layoff rates continued to remain lower for manufacturing than the total nonfarm sector.

J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI: In May, growth in global manufacturing activity was unchanged from April at 52.6. Output and new orders both improved as manufacturing production growth hit a near five-year high. Meanwhile, lead times remained elevated at the greatest level since August 2022. Employment rose slightly, and inventory levels continued to grow as firms prepare for anticipated supply chain disruptions and further cost increases.

Taiwan, the Netherlands, the U.S. and India had the highest PMI readings in May. On the other hand, Russia, Brazil and Mexico were some of the larger nations to register declines in activity. The acceleration growth in manufacturing production occurred across consumer, intermediate and investment goods.

Meanwhile, input and output price pressures continued to surge as the rate of growth for selling prices remained near a 45-month high. At the same time, business optimism dipped to a seven-month low amid rising cost pressures and supply chain disruptions. Geopolitical uncertainty continued to weigh on sentiment as input costs rose to the highest level in almost four years.

Factory Orders: New orders for manufactured goods increased 4.8% in April after moving up 1.8% in March. Meanwhile, new orders for manufactured goods rose 6.0% over the year. When excluding transportation, new orders stepped up 1.3% over the month and 4.6% year-over-year in April. Orders for durable goods jumped 8.0%, following a 1.3% uptick in March. Year to date, durable goods orders advanced 9.3%. Meanwhile, nondurable goods orders increased 1.4% after rising 2.3% in March. At the same time, nondurable goods orders grew 2.7% over the year.

In April, the largest monthly increase occurred in nondefense aircraft and parts, which surged 165.9% after declining 23.0% in March. The largest decline occurred in electromedical, measuring and control instruments, which fell 5.1% after rising 8.9% the prior month. The largest over-the-year changes occurred in industrial machinery (up 34.9%) and photographic equipment (down 13.3%).

Factory shipments rose 1.0% in April, after increasing 1.5% in March. Shipments grew 5.2% over the year. Shipments excluding transportation stepped up 1.0% in April, following a 1.7% uptick the previous month. Shipments for durable goods moved up 0.6% in April, following a 0.8% rise in March, and are up 7.7% year to date. Meanwhile, nondurable goods shipments increased 1.4%, after advancing 2.3% the prior month, and are up 2.7% year to date.

Unfilled orders for all manufacturing industries rose 1.7% in April, after ticking up 0.2% in March. Unfilled orders over the year jumped 11.5%. Inventories increased 0.3% month-over-month and 1.7% year-over-year. The inventories-to-shipments ratio edged down from 1.51 in March to 1.50 in April. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio for durable goods moved up from 6.88 in March to 6.95 in April.

S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI: The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI was 55.1 in May, up from 54.5 in April, signaling stronger growth. Production rose at its fastest pace in over four years, accelerating from April. Supported by domestic demand, new orders continued to grow but at a softer pace than in April. At the same time, employment improved while optimism fell to its lowest level in four months.

The growth in production and new orders was driven by companies purchasing safety stock in anticipation of price increases and supply disruption. Furthermore, the conflict in the Middle East has led to further increases in input and output costs, with both rising at the fastest pace since 2022.

Additionally, supply disruptions persist as lead times deteriorated at their worst rate since August 2022. Meanwhile, stock of finished goods rose for the second consecutive month and at the quickest pace since November. Despite lowered optimism, firms anticipate higher sales and production going forward and have increased hiring plans.

In March, the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index recorded a 0.7% annual gain, down slightly from a 0.8% rise in February. The 10-City Composite increased 1.4%, down from 1.5% the previous month, while the 20-City Composite rose 0.8% year-over-year, down from 0.9% in February. Chicago again posted the highest annual gain at 6.1%, followed by New York at 4.0% and Cleveland at 3.0%. Meanwhile, Seattle posted the lowest annual return, with prices falling 2.5%.

On a month-over-month basis, the U.S. National Index advanced 0.7% before seasonal adjustment. At the same time, the 10-City and 20-City Composites both stepped up, rising 1.2% and 1.0%, respectively. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index and 20-City composite both ticked down 0.2%, while the 10-City Composite edged down less than 0.1%. The Northeast and Midwest continue to outperform other regions, but the housing market overall appears to be at a standstill, with price growth barely positive. Meanwhile, in addition to Seattle, Denver (down 2.0%), Tampa (down 1.9%), Dallas (down 1.7%), Phoenix (down 1.6%), Los Angeles (down 1.6%) and Washington, D.C. (down 0.1%) exhibited declines in March.

Despite a slight lift in prices that generally occurs in the spring season, more than half of the 20 major U.S. housing markets recorded year-over-year price declines in March. Climbing mortgage rates continue to hurt affordability and stunt demand. Overall, increases in U.S. home values remained below inflation for the 10th consecutive month, a trend that shows little signs of reversing.

Consumer confidence edged down 0.7 points in May to 93.1. Among its components, the Present Situation Index contracted while the Expectations Index improved as customers’ concerns regarding the present situation worsened and concerns about the future eased.

The Present Situation Index, reflecting current business and labor market conditions, declined 3.2 points to 121.2. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index, which reflects customers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, rose 1.0 point to 74.4, remaining below the recession signal threshold of 80 since February 2025.

Views of the current labor market situation worsened slightly in May, with 25.5% of consumers saying jobs were “plentiful,” down from April (26.9%), while 18.6% said jobs were “hard to get,” also down from April (19.4%). Looking to the future, 17.5% expect more jobs to be available, up from 16.7% in April, while 26.0% anticipate fewer jobs, down from 26.8% the previous month.

Consumers’ views of the economy remained pessimistic in May. In addition, mentions of oil, gas and war continued to be elevated as consumers expressed concern over the conflict in the Middle East. Consumers’ 12-month inflation expectations edged down but remained elevated, and the proportion of consumers expecting higher interest rates remained near 50.0%. At the same time, the share of consumers who believe that a recession is “very likely” over the next year rose, and the share believing a recession is “not likely” declined in May.

Buying plans for cars, with a clear preference for used cars, continued to rise in May, and purchasing plans for homes inched up. Meanwhile, consumers’ plans for buying other big-ticket items declined. At the same time, consumers’ intentions to purchase more services fell. Among service categories, restaurants, bars and take-out remained the top planned service spending category alongside streaming, internet and mobile services and beauty and personal care. Overall, consumers’ views of their current and future financial situation weakened slightly in May.

Manufacturing activity in the Fifth District rose at a faster pace in May after moving up in April, with the composite manufacturing index increasing from 3 to 13. At the same time, the local business conditions index decreased from 10 to 5 in May. Despite growth of current business conditions weakening, manufacturers are more optimistic about the future, with the outlook for future local business conditions climbing from 3 in April to 17 in May. The Fifth District consists of Virginia, Maryland, the Carolinas, the District of Columbia and most of West Virginia.

Among its components, shipments turned positive, rising from -2 in April to 16 in May, while new orders advanced from 8 to 17. The index for employment stepped up from 0 to 3, while the index for vendor lead times stayed the same at 14. Meanwhile, the share of firms reporting backlogs increased from 0 to 4. At the same time, the average growth rate of both prices paid and prices received slowed in May.

Looking ahead, firms expressed an expectation that prices paid would increase at a slower pace over the next 12 months, while prices received would rise at a faster pace. Expectations for future shipments and new orders both strengthened, moving from 21 to 35 and from 26 to 36, respectively. Expectations for backlogs jumped from 0 to 10. Meanwhile, firms’ expectations about equipment and software spending turned positive, stepping up from -5 to 3. In sum, businesses in the Fifth District are more optimistic about future business conditions and future investment plans.

In May, Texas factory activity expanded at a slower pace after strengthening the prior month. The production index decreased from 19.0 to 9.4, falling slightly below the series average of 9.6. The new orders index stepped down 3.5 points to 6.4, while the capacity utilization index fell 14.6 points to 5.2, below the series average of 7.5. Meanwhile, the shipments index declined 7.6 points to 7.4, slightly below the series average of 7.8. The Eleventh District consists of all of Texas, northern Louisiana and southern New Mexico.

Perceptions of manufacturing business conditions improved slightly in May, with the general business activity index moving up 2.7 points to 0.4. At the same time, the company outlook index remained positive but slipped 2.7 points to 0.3. Moreover, the uncertainty index rose 1.3 points to 19.2, remaining above the series average of 16.9.

Labor market indicators suggested a slight uptick in headcounts and a longer workweek in May, with the employment index moving up 1.1 points to 0.2 and the hours worked index decreasing 2.2 points to 1.8. Of those surveyed, 17.7% reported net hiring, while nearly the same percentage (17.5%) noted net layoffs.

Price pressures were mixed, while wage pressures weakened in May. The prices paid for raw materials index rose 5.7 points to 42.7. Meanwhile, the prices received for finished goods index fell 8.7 points to 18.9, both higher than the series averages. The wages and benefits index ticked down 1.2 points to 23.6, also remaining above the series average of 21.0.

The outlook for future manufacturing activity strengthened in May, with the future production index rising 2.2 points to 36.8 and climbing above the series average of 36.0. Furthermore, the future company outlook index moved up 0.9 points to 16.5, while the future general business activity index inched up 0.2 points to 14.3, remaining above the series average of 12.3.