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Global trade is projected to grow this year but will likely slow in 2026, the World Trade Organization said in its latest “Global Trade Outlook and Statistics Report” (SupplyChainBrain).

What’s going on: “According to data released on October 7, the WTO expects the financial value of goods traded globally to expand by 2.4% this year, up from its previous estimate in August of 0.9%, thanks in large part to importers and exporters who have front-loaded shipments to get ahead of expected tariffs from the Trump administration.”

• However, the organization slashed its previous expectation of 2026 growth to 0.5% from 1.8% owing to tariffs.

The backstory: Worldwide, trade volumes skyrocketed in the first half of 2025 due to the front-loading of imports into the U.S. ahead of anticipated tariffs and “disinflation, supportive fiscal policies and tight labor markets boosting real incomes and spending in major economies, the WTO said” (CNBC).

The artificial intelligence factor: Robust emerging-market growth and rising demand for AI also fueled trade expansion in the first six months of the year.

• “The WTO noted that the U.S. accounted for roughly one-fifth of global AI-related trade growth in the first half of 2025. The bulk of the expansion came from Asia, however, which accounted for nearly two-thirds of global AI-related trade growth in the same time period,” according to CNBC.

What’s ahead: “[T]he resilience of global trade will depend heavily on how governments manage upcoming tariff escalations, with particular risks tied to U.S.–China trade frictions and potential spillover effects on emerging markets,” according to SupplyChainBrain.