Consumers See a Brighter Outlook, Even with Current Conditions Under Strain

Consumer confidence inched up 0.6 points in June to 91.2. Among its components, the Present Situation Index contracted while the Expectations Index improved as customers’ concerns regarding the present situation worsened and concerns about the future eased.

The Present Situation Index, reflecting current business and labor market conditions, declined 3.0 points to 116.4. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index, which reflects customers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, rose 3.0 points to 74.4, remaining below the recession signal threshold of 80 since February 2025.

Views of the current labor market situation worsened in June, with 24.9% of consumers saying jobs were “plentiful,” up slightly from May (24.8%), while 22.5% said jobs were “hard to get,” also up from May (19.8%). Looking to the future, 15.2% expect more jobs to be available, down from 16.6% in May, while 25.6% anticipate fewer jobs, down from 27.0% the previous month.

Consumers’ views of the economy remained pessimistic in June. In addition, mentions of oil and gas remained elevated while concerns over the conflict in the Middle East eased slightly. Consumers’ 12-month inflation expectations edged down but remained elevated, and the proportion of consumers expecting higher interest rates decreased slightly to 61.5%. At the same time, the share of consumers who believe that a recession is “somewhat likely” over the next year rose and the share believing that a recession is “not likely” declined in June.

Buying plans for cars continued to rise in June, and purchasing plans for homes also increased. Meanwhile, consumers’ plans for buying other big-ticket purchases improved. At the same time, consumers’ intentions to purchase more services moved up. Among service categories, restaurants, bars and take-out remained the top planned service spending category alongside streaming, internet and mobile services and beauty and personal care. Overall, consumers’ views of their current financial situation weakened, while expectations for their future financial situation strengthened in June.