Study: China’s Export Controls Could Threaten $6.5 Trillion

Beijing’s rare earths export controls could put $6.5 trillion in downstream, non-Chinese production at risk, according to the International Energy Agency (Inside Critical Minerals, subscription).

What’s going on: In its Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026, the IEA said the curbs put in place last fall, which Chinese President Xi Jinping postponed for a year in October, could threaten production across the automotive, high-tech, defense and energy sectors.

• The automotive, transportation and electronic sectors face the biggest risk, accounting for almost 85% of the “economic value of downstream production at risk.”
• The automotive industry outside China could lose as much as $3 trillion due to the controls, with more than 40% of the losses inflicted on the U.S.

The diversification problem: Supply concentration remains a huge risk for global supply chains, particularly for mineral refining. Over the past two years, over 75% of total growth in refined supply came from the leading refining countries, most notably China and Indonesia.

• Meanwhile, both critical mineral investment and exploration spending dropped by about 10% in 2025, the IEA documented.

Solutions: In June, the NAM released its comprehensive policy agenda to kickstart U.S. production of critical minerals while leveraging strategic international partnerships.

• “Unearthing Mineral Solutions: A Comprehensive Critical Minerals Agenda for Manufacturers in America” lays out the risks in continued American dependence on unreliable foreign sources of critical minerals.
• It offers targeted solutions for domestic policymaking, including permitting reform, financial incentives, investments in technology and processing and workforce development.
• Meanwhile, it also offers a set of international policy solutions, including generating new pipelines for critical minerals projects in partnership with allied countries, to diversify global sources.

The NAM says: “The IEA’s findings make it clear that policymakers should implement recommendations from manufacturers to safeguard friendly supply chains and bring back critical manufacturing sectors like mining and refining to the U.S.,” said NAM Senior Director of Energy and Resources Policy Mike Davin and NAM Director of International Policy Rachel Minogue.