Economic Data and Growth

As anticipated, the Federal Open Market Committee maintained its interest rate target range at 3.50%–3.75% at its April meeting. On the other hand, one FOMC member—Stephen Miran—dissented from the action, preferring to lower the target range by 25 basis points. In a change to its previous statement, the FOMC noted that inflation remains elevated, in …

In April, the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded for the fourth consecutive month and at the same pace as the prior month, with the ISM Manufacturing® PMI remaining at 52.7% from March. Certain demand indicators, such as the New Orders and Backlog of Orders indexes, stayed in expansion territory, while the New Export Orders Index remained …

Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.0% in the first quarter of 2026, up from a 0.5% rise in the fourth quarter but slightly below consensus expectations. The increase in GDP during the first quarter mostly reflected increases in investment, consumer spending on services, exports and government spending, which were partially offset by …

Manufacturing activity grew at a slightly slower pace in the Tenth District in April, with the month-over-month composite index edging down to 10 in April from 11 in March. On the other hand, expectations for future activity improved 2 points to 18. The month-over-month activity loss was due to a decline in durable manufacturing, while …

The S&P Global Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI increased from 52.3 to 54.0 in April, a 47-month high. This continues the trend of nine consecutive months of growth. Factory production and new order growth improved in April, with both experiencing their strongest expansion since 2022. Meanwhile, export orders declined after stagnating the prior month as a …

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index stepped down 3 points to 95.8 in March, falling below the 52-year average of 98.0. March’s decrease was due primarily to a decline in earnings trends and expected business conditions. Of the 10 components included in the index, eight decreased and two stayed the same. Meanwhile, the Uncertainty Index …

U.S. import prices increased 0.8% in March, after rising 0.9% in February, with higher nonfuel and fuel prices driving the increase. Over the year, import prices advanced 2.1%, the largest 12-month increase since December 2024. Meanwhile, U.S. export prices climbed 1.6% in March, driven by higher prices for nonagricultural and agricultural exports. Over the past …

Manufacturing activity in New York state expanded in April, with the headline business conditions index rising 11.2 points to 11.0. The new orders index increased 12.9 points to 19.3, while the shipments index soared 27.1 points to 20.2, the highest level for both indexes since 2023. Unfilled orders decreased 1.7 points to 9.1, while inventories …

In April, Philadelphia’s regional manufacturing activity expanded for the fourth consecutive month, with the index for general business activity advancing from 18.1 to 26.7. This month, 32.6% of firms reported increases in activity, while only 5.9% noted decreases. The index for new orders jumped from 8.6 to 33.0, while the shipments index climbed 11.8 points …

The Producer Price Index for final demand (also known as wholesale prices) rose 0.5% over the month in March, unchanged from the 0.5% increase in February and below expectations. Over the year, producer prices jumped 4.0%, up from 3.4% in February and the largest 12-month increase since February 2023. Meanwhile, prices for final demand excluding …