News & Insights

Manufacturing activity in New York state was little changed in March, with the headline business conditions index falling 7.3 points to -0.2, right under the threshold that indicates contraction. The new orders index edged up 0.6 points to 6.4, while the shipments index moved down 5.9 points to -6.9. Unfilled orders increased 1.7 points to 10.8, while inventories ticked down 0.2 points to 6.9, indicating business inventories are growing but at a slightly slower pace. Delivery times lengthened, and supply availability worsened, declining 2.9 points to -3.9.

Employment increased in March, with the index for the number of employees rising 1.8 points to 5.8. At the same time, the average employee workweek index ticked down to 1.9 from 2.1, signaling a slower pace of increase in hours worked in March. The prices paid index fell 12.5 points to 36.6, while the prices received index edged down 0.8 points to 21.4, reflecting a slower pace of increase in both prices paid and prices received.

In March, firms’ optimism regarding the future declined but remained positive, with the future business activity index decreasing 3.7 points to 31.0. In the next six months, new orders are expected to rise but at a slower pace compared to the prior month at 29.1. The future employment index moved down 3.9 points to 22.2, suggesting an anticipated slower pace of employment growth over the next six months. Meanwhile, input and selling price expectations are forecasted to increase at a slower pace, dropping from 57.6 to 43.1 and from 40.3 to 32.4, respectively. Furthermore, capital spending plans strengthened from February, up from 18.2 to 21.6.

In March, Philadelphia’s regional manufacturing activity expanded for the third consecutive month, with the index for general business activity advancing from 16.3 to 18.1. This month, 39.2% of firms reported increases in activity, while 21.1% of firms noted decreases. The index for new orders moved down from 11.7 to 8.6, while the shipments index surged 21.9 points to 22.2, its highest reading since January 2025. Meanwhile, the employment and average employee workweek indexes both turned positive, rising 2.1 points to 0.8 and 14.4 points to 2.8, respectively.

The prices paid index increased from 38.9 to 44.7, while the prices received index moved up from 16.7 to 21.2 in March. As has been the case for many months, the prices received index remained lower than the prices paid index, indicating that manufacturers have been absorbing a portion of higher costs paid.

Looking ahead, indicators showing expectations for future growth remained positive. After climbing 17.3 points in February, expectations for future business activity fell 2.8 points to 40.0 in March. The decline came from an increase in the proportion of firms expecting a decrease in activity (16.3%). At the same time, the proportion of firms expecting an increase in activity (56.3%) moved up in March. The future new orders index decreased from 54.1 to 49.6, while the capital expenditures index rose from 14.4 to 25.8. The future prices paid and prices received indexes declined from 54.1 to 53.7 and from 50.1 to 38.4, respectively. Additionally, the index for future employment jumped from 14.9 to 40.4.

In March, firms were asked about total production and capacity utilization in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the prior quarter. Of those responses, 51.8% reported an increase in production, while a smaller share (29.6%) noted a decrease. The median capacity utilization rate was unchanged from last quarter at 70% to 80%. When asked about which factors acted as constraints on capacity utilization, nearly half of firms (48.1%) said that uncertainty was at least a moderate constraint on capacity utilization. Looking forward, 53.6% of respondents expect the impact of energy markets to worsen, while 40.7% forecast the impact from uncertainty to worsen.

The Producer Price Index for final demand (also known as wholesale prices) jumped 0.7% over the month in February, up from the 0.5% increase in January and significantly above expectations. Over the year, producer prices climbed 3.4% in February, up from 2.9% in January and the largest 12-month increase since February 2025. Meanwhile, prices for final demand excluding foods, energy and trade services grew 0.5% over the month in February after rising 0.4% in January. Prices for these goods advanced 3.5% from February 2025.

Within final demand, prices for services rose 0.5% in February, after advancing 0.8% in January. Meanwhile, prices for goods soared 1.1% in February, the largest monthly increase since August 2023, after edging down 0.2% in January. Within the final demand services index, prices for traveler accommodation services surged 5.7%, accounting for about 20% of the February increase. Within the final demand goods index, prices for fresh and dry vegetables jumped 48.9%, accounting for over 20% of the February rise. At the same time, prices for industrial material handling equipment climbed 0.1% from January and 6.1% from February 2025.

Prices for processed goods for intermediate demand rose 1.6% in February, the largest monthly increase since August 2023, after staying the same in January. Within the index, prices for diesel fuel soared 13.9% after declining 1.1% in January. Meanwhile, prices for steel mill products and aluminum mill shapes advanced 3.0% and 5.7% from January and 20.9% and 39.1% from February 2025, respectively. Over the year, the index rose 4.0%, the largest annual increase since December 2022.

Meanwhile, prices for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand jumped 3.1% in February, the largest monthly increase since January 2025, after moving up 0.9% in January. The monthly rise was led by a 10.9% leap in natural gas prices, which surged 30.0% over the year. In contrast, prices for raw milk fell 9.1% in February and 33.3% from February 2025. Over the year, prices for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand decreased 1.7%, after declining 4.5% in January.

As anticipated, the Federal Open Market Committee maintained its interest rate target range at 3.50%–3.75% at its March meeting. On the other hand, one FOMC member—Stephen Miran—dissented, preferring to lower the target range by 25 basis points. In a change to its previous statement, the FOMC noted that the implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain.

In the press conference following the meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell noted that economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace, with job gains staying low while inflation remains elevated. Chairman Powell noted that the higher energy prices due to events in the Middle East will push up prices in the near term, but it is too soon to know the scope and duration of the potential effects on the economy. He reaffirmed that the FOMC is well positioned to determine the extent and timing of additional adjustments to its policy stance.

The FOMC’s summary of economic projections, which maps out the Federal Reserve’s expectations for where interest rates may be headed in the future, signaled a somewhat less mixed stance compared to the December summary. Twelve Federal Reserve officials project there will be additional rate cuts across 2026, while seven anticipate no additional rate cuts this year. A majority of the officials who predict a rate cut this year anticipate just one 25-basis-point cut across 2026. Meanwhile, the projections show that officials still expect inflation to remain elevated, averaging 2.7% in 2026, more so than the 2.4% average projected in December. At the same time, the projections show officials expect real GDP to rise slightly more in 2026 than previously anticipated.

New orders for manufactured goods inched up 0.1% in January following a 0.4% decrease in December. Meanwhile, new orders for manufactured goods grew 3.5% over the year. When excluding transportation, new orders rose 0.4% over the month and 0.6% year-over-year in January. Orders for durable goods stayed the same following a 0.9% decline in December. Year to date, durable goods orders jumped 9.1%. Nondurable goods orders advanced 0.3% in January after ticking up 0.1% in December. Nondurable goods orders decreased 1.8% over the year.

New orders for ships and boats led the rise in durable goods orders, surging 10.9% following December’s 5.8% drop. In January, the largest monthly decrease occurred in defense aircraft and parts, which plummeted 23.8% after gaining 11.8% in December. The largest over-the-year changes occurred in nondefense aircraft and parts (up 93.8%) and metalworking machinery (down 8.9%).

Factory shipments rose 0.5% in January after increasing 0.7% in December. Shipments over the year grew 1.4%. Shipments excluding transportation moved up 0.4% in January following a 0.5% gain the previous month. Shipments for durable goods stepped up 0.6% following a 1.2% rise in December and are up 4.8% year to date. Meanwhile, nondurable goods shipments increased 0.3%, after ticking up 0.1% the prior month, and have declined 1.8% year to date.

Unfilled orders for all manufacturing industries increased 0.8% in January after rising 0.9% in December. Unfilled orders over the year jumped 11.1%. Inventories stepped up 0.8% year-over-year. The inventories-to-shipments ratio edged down from 1.56 to 1.55 in January. Meanwhile, the unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio for durable goods stayed the same at 7.01 from December.

Industrial production increased 0.2% in February, while manufacturing output rose by the same amount after expanding 0.8% in January. At 97.6% of its 2017 average, manufacturing production advanced 1.3% from February 2025. Capacity utilization for manufacturing was 75.6%, unchanged from January but up 1.1% over the past year. Capacity utilization remained 2.6 percentage points below its long-term average from 1972 to 2025.

In February, major market groups posted mixed results. Consumer goods production stayed the same, while business equipment output increased 0.2%. The gain in production of consumer durables (up 0.4%) was led by the output of appliances, furniture and carpeting rising 1.5%. Meanwhile, the index for consumer nondurables moved down 0.1%, led by a decline in the index for clothing (down 0.4%). Among business equipment, the 2.8% gain in transit equipment led the increase. At the same time, the index for materials improved 0.3%, while the index for construction supplies declined 0.2% and the index for business supplies ticked up 0.1%.

Durable goods manufacturing advanced 0.1% in February and 2.4% from the year prior. Monthly growth was greatest for motor vehicles and parts (up 1.7%), while machinery posted the largest decline (down 1.2%). Meanwhile, led by a 0.9% gain in chemicals output, nondurable manufacturing edged up 0.2% in February and 0.3% from February 2025.

Washington, D.C. – Manufacturers today welcomed President Trump’s national AI legislative framework for its practical, pro-growth policy recommendations to advance U.S. leadership in artificial intelligence.

National Association of Manufacturers Executive Vice President Erin Streeter issued the following statement urging Congress to take up policies to advance AI innovation:

“Manufacturers support a consistent federal framework that emphasizes innovation and avoids a cumbersome 50-state patchwork, and President Trump’s announcement today reflects this approach. The president’s commonsense AI framework will remove barriers to innovation and growth, which is critical for success. But we also need comprehensive permitting reform to go hand in hand to achieve the energy dominance needed to set manufacturers on a trajectory to win the global race for AI.

“We look forward to working with Congress to get this done.”

Background

Manufacturers have been at the forefront of developing and implementing cutting-edge AI systems that are transforming shop floors and revolutionizing operations.

Last December, the NAM supported President Trump’s AI Executive Order on state AI regulations and endorsed several bills to streamline permitting.

In July 2025, the Manufacturing Institute, the nonprofit workforce development and education affiliate of the NAM, unveiled a set of policy priorities responding to a White House Executive Order on workforce modernization.

In May 2025, the Manufacturing Leadership Council, the digital transformation division of the NAM, released a groundbreaking report, “Shaping the AI-Powered Factory of the Future,” revealing that 51% of manufacturers already deploy AI in their operations, and 80% say AI will be essential to growing or maintaining their business by 2030. This is not just about efficiency—it’s about competitiveness, innovation and the future of American industry.

In May 2024, the NAM published “Working Smarter: How Manufacturers Are Using Artificial Intelligence”—a report that explains the ways in which manufacturers are using AI already, making the technology integral to modern manufacturing with manufacturers at the forefront of developing and implementing AI systems.

-NAM-

The National Association of Manufacturers is the largest manufacturing association in the United States, representing small and large manufacturers in every industrial sector and in all 50 states. Manufacturing employs nearly 13 million men and women, contributes $2.95 trillion to the U.S. economy annually and accounts for 53% of private-sector research and development. The NAM is the powerful voice of the manufacturing community and the leading advocate for a policy agenda that helps manufacturers compete in the global economy and create jobs across the United States. For more information about the NAM or to follow us on Twitter and Facebook, please visit www.nam.org. 

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Washington, D.C. – National Association of Manufacturers President and CEO Jay Timmons issued the following statement in response to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth District decision enabling Resolution Copper’s congressionally mandated land exchange to move forward—an outcome the NAM helped drive through years of sustained advocacy and strategic legal action, including an amicus brief filed with the court.

“The completion of Resolution Copper’s land exchange is a monumental milestone for our nation and the manufacturing industry’s efforts to ensure U.S. supply chains have reliable access to the raw materials that power our economy. We appreciate the leadership of the Trump administration, the Department of the Interior, the Department of Agriculture, the Bureau of Land Management and Congress for getting this extremely important land exchange across the finish line.

“The significance of this moment cannot be overstated. The U.S. imports about 35% of its copper. At full capacity, Resolution Copper—the third-largest known copper deposit in the world—could supply a quarter of all U.S. copper demand and as much as 40 billion pounds of copper over 40 years, securing access to critical minerals that are essential to our nation’s economic strength and national security. This would also reduce our reliance on adversarial nations for minerals and boost energy and critical national defense systems. The land exchange proves what is possible when policy, process and partnership align. It’s the kind of outcome manufacturers need to see more often: one that protects key landscapes, unlocks critical resources and advances America’s economic and national security.”

Background:

Copper is a critical material for manufacturing—serving as a core input in industrial production and machinery, as well as energy infrastructure that powers factories, data centers and advanced technologies. As manufacturers work to outcompete China and achieve American energy dominance, securing reliable, domestic sources of critical minerals like copper has become increasingly urgent. The NAM’s recent policy framework underscores this need, calling for a comprehensive critical minerals strategy.

At the same time, projects like Resolution Copper illustrate the challenges posed by the current permitting landscape. For more than a decade, the project has faced complex and uncertain federal review processes—reflecting broader systemic issues. According to recent NAM analysis, America’s broken permitting system costs manufacturers at least $7.9 billion each year, highlighting the need for bipartisan, comprehensive permitting reform to strengthen America’s economic and national security.

-NAM- 

The National Association of Manufacturers is the largest manufacturing association in the United States, representing small and large manufacturers in every industrial sector and in all 50 states. Manufacturing employs nearly 13 million men and women, contributes $2.90 trillion to the U.S. economy annually and accounts for 53% of private-sector research and development. The NAM is the powerful voice of the manufacturing community and the leading advocate for a policy agenda that helps manufacturers compete in the global economy and create jobs across the United States. For more information about the NAM or to follow us on Twitter and Facebook, please visit www.nam.org. 

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Washington, D.C. – Manufacturers today are urging policymakers to enact a modern, comprehensive policy agenda to secure access to critical minerals for both the industry and the nation—one that generates new pipelines for critical mineral projects at home while securing diversified access to vital manufacturing inputs sourced globally. To advance this agenda, the National Association of Manufacturers shared with the United States Trade Representative a framework to rebalance global supply chains with plurilateral partners.  

“The stakes are clear: manufacturers depend on secure, reliable and sustainable supply chains to make things in America,” said NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons. “Critical minerals and rare earth elements are essential for automotive parts and vehicles, electrical grid components, robotics and industrial automation, defense technology, electronics and more. With China dominating global supply chains, manufacturers can no longer risk these vulnerabilities.  

“Manufacturers support the administration and Congress’ efforts to rebalance global supply chains through comprehensive actions domestically and with international partners. The comprehensive approach the NAM is releasing today will enhance critical minerals capacity at home, leverage resources abroad and safeguard access to a diverse range of critical minerals necessary for U.S. economic strength and national security.”  

The NAM’s two-pronged policy framework offers specific, complementary domestic and international policy recommendations to the Trump Administration and Congress. On the domestic front, it calls for enacting comprehensive permitting reform and making strategic energy incentives permanent. Internationally, the NAM urges the administration to negotiate a plurilateral agreement that positions U.S. investors for success and leverages the collective advantages of international partners and allies across every stage of the critical minerals life cycle—effectively rebalancing the global market for critical minerals.  

Read the NAM’s full policy agenda here. 

-NAM- 

 The National Association of Manufacturers is the largest manufacturing association in the United States, representing small and large manufacturers in every industrial sector and in all 50 states. Manufacturing employs nearly 13 million men and women, contributes $2.95 trillion to the U.S. economy annually and accounts for 53% of private-sector research and development. The NAM is the powerful voice of the manufacturing community and the leading advocate for a policy agenda that helps manufacturers compete in the global economy and create jobs across the United States. For more information about the NAM or to follow us on Twitter and Facebook, please visit www.nam.org.  

733 10th St. NW, Suite 700 • Washington, DC 20001 • (202) 637-3000 

Washington, D.C. – America’s broken permitting system is costing manufacturers in America $7.9 billion each year, according to a new report released today by the National Association of Manufacturers and the Foundation for American Innovation—underscoring the urgent need for bipartisan, comprehensive permitting reform to strengthen America’s economic and national security. The findings highlight how widespread and complex federal permitting requirements have become, with manufacturers most commonly citing Clean Water Act permits (required for 82.1% of projects) and Clean Air Act permits (required for 72.6% of projects)—the latter noted as the most burdensome approval process.

The new report, “America on Hold: How Permitting Delays Stall Manufacturing Progress,” draws from a recent joint survey of manufacturers conducted between Dec. 9, 2025, and Jan. 15, 2026, examining the types of projects companies are pursuing, the permits they most frequently require, where uncertainty and regulatory complexity create challenges and which reforms would have the greatest impact. The findings reveal a permitting system that hits manufacturers hardest where they operate most often: routine upgrades, expansions and ongoing operations.

“Manufacturers are investing across America, but permitting roadblocks are holding projects back,” said NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons. “It takes the U.S. up to 80% longer than our peer nations to move projects forward. Manufacturers want ribbon cuttings, not red tape—that means modernizing our laws to streamline regulations and eliminate duplicative reviews and a regulatory regime to support timely permitting and give manufacturers the certainty to invest, build and create jobs.”

From the NAM’s survey to manufacturers:

• 50.8% say permitting concerns discourage investment in new or expanded capacity.
• 65.6% would increase U.S. investment if permitting timelines were shorter and more predictable.
• The most common permitted activities are facility expansions and equipment upgrades, not megaprojects.

Until now, consolidated research demonstrating the full economic impact of the federal permitting system on manufacturing investment has been limited—largely due to the sheer number of laws and regulations governing permits, as well as the absence of a centralized federal repository of permitting data. The NAM–FAI report addresses that gap by combining publicly available permitting data with original industry survey results to provide one of the most comprehensive views to date on the cost of permitting for manufacturers.

The full report can be read here.

Methodology:

Using external and survey data, the NAM–FAI findings estimate that over the past 10 years, the U.S. manufacturing sector has incurred an average annual permitting burden of $7.9 billion+. To calculate, unit costs are derived by multiplying the 10-year federal permit counts with the total out-of-pocket and indirect costs of the permitting process, as detailed in the bullets below.

• The federal count of applications and final permits obtained by manufacturers over the past 10 years, categorized by permit type (i.e., NEPA, Clean Water Act, Clean Air Act, etc.)
• Out-of-pocket costs that include application fees, consultants, legal expenses and more from project delays
• Delays created by indirect costs, such as carrying costs, lost revenue from pushing back project initiation, inventory and contract impacts

-NAM- 

The National Association of Manufacturers is the largest manufacturing association in the United States, representing small and large manufacturers in every industrial sector and in all 50 states. Manufacturing employs nearly 13 million men and women, contributes $2.95 trillion to the U.S. economy annually and accounts for 53% of private-sector research and development. The NAM is the powerful voice of the manufacturing community and the leading advocate for a policy agenda that helps manufacturers compete in the global economy and create jobs across the United States. For more information about the NAM or to follow us on Twitter and Facebook, please visit www.nam.org.

Featured Quotes from Chairman Bruce Westerman and Manufacturing Leaders

“The federal permitting process is broken, and this report confirms what we already know: clarity and certainty must return to the process to jumpstart projects, end duplicative reviews, reform judicial review processes and boost project investments in the United States. My bipartisan SPEED Act will tackle these issues to let America build again, so we can remain a global leader across all industries, including manufacturing.” – House Committee on Natural Resources Chairman Bruce Westerman (R-Ark.)

“Regulatory uncertainty is one of the most significant hurdles our customers face as they consider placing new equipment orders with Husco. Permitting delays and denials can derail projects that enhance our economy and provide family-sustaining jobs for workers. A comprehensive effort to streamline the permitting process would represent a significant step forward. Common-sense reforms to the National Environmental Policy Act are just one example of many that would help expedite new investment. We fully support NAM’s ongoing and important efforts in this area.” – Austin Ramirez, President and CEO of Husco and NAM Small and Medium Manufacturers Group Vice Chair

“Projects that strengthen our energy system can face years of unnecessary delays under the current NEPA framework. Uncertain timelines, duplicative reviews, overly expansive analyses, and lengthy litigation can stall or even cancel critical infrastructure. Modernizing NEPA is a critical step toward providing greater certainty for developers and communities so we can deliver the energy needed to support American jobs, strengthen supply chains, and keep energy affordable for families and businesses.” – Toby Z Rice, President and CEO, EQT

“As the U.S. works to strengthen energy security and expand domestic manufacturing, the ability to build power generation, transmission and grid infrastructure on predictable timelines has become increasingly important. In our work across the energy sector, we see how lengthy and duplicative permitting processes can add years of uncertainty to projects needed to support reliability, electrification and new human critical infrastructure investments. Nearly as critical, it can also delay hiring and investment in the skilled workforce required to build and operate this critical infrastructure. While the National Environmental Policy Act plays an important role in protecting communities and the environment, modernizing permitting by improving coordination, setting clearer timelines and ensuring reviews are applied in an energy‑source‑neutral way would help advance critical infrastructure without lowering standards. Properly resourcing permitting agencies — and the judiciary to resolve challenges efficiently — would further improve predictability. A more efficient, transparent permitting framework is essential to delivering the power systems required to meet growing demand and keep U.S. industry competitive.” – Todd Edsall, President, Power Providers, Black & Veatch

We were the first mining project covered under the federal government’s FAST-41 permitting program in 2024. From start to finish the process will take just over two years. We have seen the benefits that streamlining and coordinating federal efforts under NEPA provides to projects like Hermosa. When there is a collective will to support a project needed for national security, the resources are put in place to ensure the defined timeline milestones are met with the same, if not more, amount of rigor and efficiency. By responsibly modernizing NEPA in a bipartisan manner, more critical projects can move forward to support communities, provide jobs, and deliver for America” – Pat Risner, President, Hermosa Project, South32

“The recent NEPA reforms are solid first step towards modernizing the permitting process. However, there is much more we can do to remove the bureaucracy that is not providing value. We don’t have time to waste if our energy infrastructure is going to keep pace with the AI boom. If we can create more predictability in permitting, the results will include more stability, greater speed, and lower costs.” – Ryan Lindsey, Executive Vice President of Government Relations, CRH Americas

“At Nucor, permitting delays are not abstract—they directly affect our ability to invest, build, and create good paying manufacturing jobs in America. We have experienced firsthand how reviews under NEPA and related permitting requirements can add months to project timelines and significantly increase costs, even for projects with strong environmental performance and local support. Modernizing NEPA to provide clearer timelines, better interagency coordination, and a more predictable review process, including a greater role for states with appropriate federal oversight, would strengthen American manufacturing while maintaining robust environmental protections.”  – Ben Pickett, Executive Vice President of Business Services, Nucor Corporation

“Rising energy demand in the U.S. from AI, manufacturing, and industrial operations is ushering in a full-scale expansion of our energy backbone. Given our role as an Energy Technology Partner to the U.S., Schneider Electric is uniquely positioned to help electrify, automate, and digitalize the infrastructure needed to meet the moment. By adopting favorable policies like permitting reform and advancing innovative energy tech, we can help usher in a new era of energy intelligence and accelerate our time to power.” — Jeannie Salo, Chief Public Policy Officer, North America, Schneider Electric