Policy and Legal

If enacted, the broad constitutional amendments being pushed by outgoing Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador would put the special U.S.–Mexico trade relationship at serious risk, according to the NAM.

What’s going on: Last week, Obrador froze Mexico’s relationships with U.S. and Canadian embassies following concerns voiced by those countries’ ambassadors about the proposed reforms, which include sweeping changes to the Mexican judiciary and the elimination of several important state regulatory and oversight agencies.

• Mexico is America’s largest trading partner, with the volume of trade between the two nations coming in at $900 billion last year.
• Obrador’s proposed revisions led investment bank Morgan Stanley to issue an “effective ‘sell’ recommendation on Mexico” late last month (Reuters, subscription).

Why it’s a problem: “We’re concerned that some of the reforms as proposed could harm Mexico’s standing as an attractive place to do business,” NAM Vice President of International Policy Andrea Durkin said on the “Imagen Empresarial” (“Corporate Image”) podcast last week. “Manufacturers pay attention to how banks are factoring these potential changes to the constitution into Mexico’s risk profile.”

• Indeed, “[i]nvestors see independent judiciaries—sheltered from politics—as a sign of strong rule of law,” one emerging markets expert told The Wall Street Journal (subscription).
• Several planned revisions also appear to violate Mexico’s obligations under the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement, which is due for review by all three nations in 2026. Moving forward with the reforms could jeopardize the continuation of that deal.

What’s next: Incoming Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who takes office Oct. 1, “supports the judicial changes, but executing the overhaul might take up most of the energy of her new government, leaving her little bandwidth for her own agenda, which includes an expansion of social programs that need foreign investment,” according to the Journal.