Consumer confidence declines to 90.8 in July as present situation assessments worsen

Conference Board Consumer Confidence: Consumer confidence decreased 1.4 points in July to 90.8. Among its components, the Present Situation Index contracted while the Expectations Index was unchanged as customers’ concerns regarding the present situation worsened and concerns about the future held steady.

The Present Situation Index, reflecting current business and labor market conditions, declined 3.6 points to 114.9. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index, which reflects customers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, was unchanged at 74.7, remaining below the recession signal threshold of 80 since February 2025.

Views of the current labor market situation worsened in July, with 24.6% of consumers saying jobs were “plentiful,” down slightly from June (25.5%), while 21.5% said jobs were “hard to get,” also down slightly from June (21.7%). Looking to the future, 16.7% expect more jobs to be available, up from 15.6% in June, while 25.3% anticipate fewer jobs, down from 25.5% the previous month.

Consumers’ views of the economy remained pessimistic in July. In addition, mentions of food and grocery prices increased, while references to prices of oil and gas eased slightly. Consumers’ 12-month inflation expectations edged down in July, and the proportion of consumers expecting higher interest rates was unchanged at 61.3%. At the same time, the share of consumers who believe a recession is “somewhat likely” over the next year rose, and the share believing a recession is “very likely” declined in July.

Buying plans for cars and homes continued to rise in July. Meanwhile, among consumers’ plans for buying other big-ticket items, plans to buy smartphones moderated. At the same time, consumers’ intentions to purchase more services moved up. Among the service categories, restaurants, bars and takeout remained the top planned service spending category alongside streaming, internet and mobile services and beauty and personal care. Overall, consumers’ views of their current financial situation strengthened, while expectations for their future financial situation weakened slightly in July.