Economic Data and Growth

The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 52.4 in January, up from the December reading of 51.8. New orders rose in January, though growth was modest and below the survey average. However, exports declined for the seventh consecutive month, as tariffs were noted to have driven up costs and hurt demand. Meanwhile, prices on inputs increased, with vendors raising charges in response, and selling price inflation rose to its highest level since August. In sum, the rate of inflation remained elevated from a historical context in January.

Production rose at the strongest rate since last August, and combined with weak sales, allowed stocks of finished goods to increase for the sixth consecutive month. In anticipation of future production, employment grew modestly in January. Backlogs of orders increased in January due to the rise in new orders, following four months of decline. Meanwhile, delivery times continued to lengthen, a result of difficulty sourcing inputs and resource constraints for suppliers.

Potential for growth from lowered interest rates and reduced import competition held business confidence steady in January. At the same time, output continuing to outpace sales presents the risk of a production slowdown and negative effects on employment unless demand improves.