Economic Data and Growth

In January, growth in global manufacturing activity strengthened from December, rising from 50.4 to 50.9, a three-month high. Output and new orders both expanded as manufacturers saw the strongest rise in new work in almost a year. New export orders contracted in January for the 10th consecutive month but at their slowest pace during this downturn. Meanwhile, lead times continued to slow, lengthening for the 20th consecutive month. Employment grew for the first time in three months as job gains in the U.S., China and Japan contrasted job losses across the Eurozone.

India, Greece, the Philippines and Thailand had the highest PMI readings in January. On the other hand, Brazil, Germany, Russia and Italy were some of the larger nations to register declines in activity. The upturn in manufacturing occurred across consumer, intermediate and investment goods in January, with the fastest growth seen in consumer goods.

Meanwhile, input and output price pressures rose at the quickest rates in three years in January, with the jump largely driven by the U.S. Despite this, forward-looking indicators remained positive, with business optimism hitting a 10-month high but remaining below long-run averages.

Job openings for manufacturing increased by 34,000 to 433,000 in December. On the other hand, the November job openings level of 399,000 was revised downward from 403,000 in the previous report. Nondurable goods job openings in December rose by 11,000 to 139,000, while durable goods job openings climbed by 23,000 to 294,000. The manufacturing job openings rate ticked up to 3.3% from 3.0% in November but stayed the same from 3.3% the previous year. The rate for nondurable goods manufacturing advanced 0.2 percentage points to 2.8% and 0.3 percentage points to 3.6% for durable goods manufacturing.

In the larger economy, the number of job openings dropped to 6.5 million, a decline of 386,000 from November and 966,000 from the previous year. The job openings rate fell to 3.9% from 4.2% in November and from 4.5% in December 2024. This data reflects an overall labor market that has eased back to pre-pandemic levels, but remains relatively tight from a historical perspective.

The number of hires in the overall economy increased 172,000 to 5.3 million in December but decreased 81,000 from the previous year. The hires rate for the overall economy edged up 0.1 percentage point in December to 3.3%. Meanwhile, the hires rate for manufacturing similarly ticked up 0.1 percentage point to 2.3%, down from 2.4% in December 2024. The hires rate for durable goods stayed the same at 2.0%, while the hires rate for nondurable goods inched up 0.1 percentage point to 2.7%.

In the larger economy, total separations, which include quits, layoffs, discharges and other separations, rose 107,000 from November to 5.3 million and 169,000 from the previous year. The total separations rate ticked up 0.1 percentage point to 3.3% for the overall economy but stayed the same for manufacturing at 2.4%, down from 2.5% from the year prior. Within that rate, layoffs and discharges increased by 7,000 in December for manufacturing, while quits ticked up by 2,000. The quit and layoff rates continue to remain lower for manufacturing than the total nonfarm sector.

In January, the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded for the first time after 10 consecutive months of contraction, with the ISM Manufacturing® PMI increasing to 52.6% from 47.9% in December. Demand indicators moved into expansion territory, with the New Orders, New Export Orders and Backlog of Orders Indexes rising to 57.1%, 50.2% and 51.6%, respectively. Meanwhile, the Customers’ Inventories Index contracted at a faster rate into “too low” territory, which is also a positive sign for future production. Meanwhile, the Production Index expanded at a faster pace in January, increasing from 50.7% to 55.9%.

The New Orders Index expanded in January after contracting for four consecutive months, jumping 9.7 percentage points from December. Of the six-largest manufacturing sectors, four—machinery; transportation equipment; chemical products; and food, beverage and tobacco products—reported an increase in new orders. In a turnaround from recent months, respondents noted optimism about near-term demand. However, numerous respondents cited post-holiday replenishment and customers’ desire to get ahead of additional tariff-driven price increases as likely reasons for the increase.

The New Export Orders Index expanded after 10 consecutive months of contraction in January, 3.4 percentage points higher than December. Nonetheless, respondents remain concerned about dampened international demand amid ongoing trade tensions and policy uncertainty. Meanwhile, the Imports Index stayed the same in January after nine consecutive months of contraction, up 5.4 percentage points from December to 50.0%.

The Employment Index contracted for the 12th consecutive month but at a slower pace than the prior month, up 3.3 percentage points from December to 48.1%. Of the six-largest manufacturing sectors, two—transportation equipment and computer and electronic products—reported increased employment. Companies continued to focus on layoffs and attrition to restrict headcounts due to uncertainty around near- to mid-term demand. For every comment on hiring, two respondents noted reduced headcounts.

The Prices Index ticked up 0.5 percentage points from December to 59.0%, indicating raw materials prices grew for the 16th straight month in January and at a slightly faster pace than the prior month. Of the six-largest manufacturing sectors, four—machinery; computer and electronic products; transportation equipment; and chemical products—reported increased prices. The increase continues to be driven by higher steel and aluminum prices impacting the entire supply chain, as well as the tariffs applied to most imported goods. Roughly 29.0% of companies reported paying higher prices, up from 26.4% in December and from 21.0% in January 2025.

In November, the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index recorded a 1.4% annual gain, consistent with the gain in October. The 10-City Composite increased 2.0%, up from 1.9% the previous month, while the 20-City Composite rose 1.4% year-over-year, up from 1.3%. Among the 20 cities, Chicago posted the highest annual gain at 5.7%, followed by New York at 5.0% and Cleveland at 3.4%. Tampa again posted the lowest annual return, with prices falling 3.9%.

On a month-over-month basis, the U.S. National Index declined 0.1% before seasonal adjustment. At the same time, the 10-City Composite inched up 0.1%, while the 20-City Composite edged down less than 0.1%. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index rose 0.4%, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both grew 0.5%.

The combination of high financing costs and prices continue to cap growth. Before seasonal adjustment, 15 of the 20 major metro areas saw price declines in November. The Northeast and Midwest continue to outperform other regions as overall conditions cool. Meanwhile, in addition to Tampa, the Sun Belt and Western markets continue declining, including Phoenix (down 1.4%), Dallas (down 1.4%) and Miami (down 1.0%).

Any short-term momentum from last year has slowed across regions. Home price gains continue to trail inflation, weakening home values over the past year. The new equilibrium of minimal price growth and elevated costs is leaving home values essentially flat in real terms.

Consumer confidence plummeted 9.7 points in January to 84.5, its lowest level since 2014. Among its components, the Present Situation Index and Expectations Index both declined as consumers’ concerns regarding the present situation and expectations for the future worsened.

The Present Situation Index, reflecting current business and labor market conditions, fell 9.9 points to 113.7. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index, which reflects consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, decreased 9.5 points to 65.1, remaining below the recession signal threshold of 80 since February 2025.

Views of the current labor market situation weakened, with 23.9% of consumers saying jobs were “plentiful,” down from December (27.5%), while 20.8% said jobs were “hard to get,” up from December (19.1%). Looking to the future, 28.5% expect fewer available jobs in the next six months, up from 26.0% the prior month, while 13.9% anticipate more jobs to be available, down from 17.4% the previous month.

Mentions of high prices and inflation, tariffs and trade, politics and the labor market continued to top the list of topics influencing consumers’ views of the economy. At the same time, mentions of health care and insurance and war edged higher in January. Consumers’ 12-month inflation expectations increased, and the proportion of consumers expecting interest rates to rise dipped in January. At the same time, the share of consumers who believe a recession is “very likely” over the next year ticked up, and the small share thinking the economy is already in a recession rose.

Buying plans for cars overall were flat in January, as purchasing plans for homes fell. Consumers’ plans for buying big-ticket items declined in January, with purchasing plans for household appliances and electronics decreasing in all categories except smartphones. Consumers’ intentions to purchase more services also dropped; however, restaurants, bars and take-out remain the top planned service spending category and continued to rise. Overall, consumers’ views of their current and future financial situation weakened in January.

As anticipated, the Federal Open Market Committee maintained its interest rate target range at 3.50%–3.75% at its January meeting. In a change to its previous statement, the FOMC noted that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace, while the unemployment rate has shown signs of stabilization, no longer necessitating a rate cut. On the other hand, two FOMC members—Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller—dissented, preferring to lower the target range by 25 basis points. In addition, at its annual organization meeting, the FOMC reaffirmed its “Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy,” which articulates its approach to monetary policy. The statement is identical to the version adopted in August 2025.

In the press conference following the meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell noted that the economy goes into 2026 on a firm footing, with job gains staying low while inflation remains elevated. Chairman Powell noted that the FOMC is well positioned to determine the extent and timing of additional adjustments to its policy stance. In addition, the improved outlook for economic activity should have a positive impact on labor demand and employment.

The FOMC’s summary of economic projections, which maps out the Federal Reserve’s expectations for where interest rates may be headed in the future, generally is released in conjunction with every other FOMC meeting. Since the December meeting included a release of economic projections, there was not a release in conjunction with the January FOMC meeting. The December summary signaled a mixed stance regarding where monetary policy should go in 2026. Twelve Federal Reserve officials projected additional rate cuts across 2026, while four anticipated no additional rate cuts, and three predicted a 25-basis-point hike.

The Producer Price Index for final demand (also known as wholesale prices) rose 0.5% over the month in December, after prices ticked up 0.2% in November. Over the year, producer prices moved up 3.0% in December, unchanged from November. Meanwhile, prices for final demand excluding foods, energy and trade services increased 0.4% over the month in December after rising 0.2% in November. Prices for these goods advanced 3.5% from December 2024.

Within final demand, prices for services jumped 0.7% in December after staying the same in November. Meanwhile, prices for goods stayed the same in December, after rising 0.8% in November. Within the final demand services index, margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling moved up 4.5%, accounting for more than 40% of the December increase. Within the final demand goods index, prices for nonferrous metals climbed 4.5%, while prices for diesel fuel fell 14.6%.

Processed goods for intermediate demand inched down 0.1% in December, following a 0.5% increase in November. The decrease was driven by a 2.4% decline in the index for processed energy goods, in particular the drop in prices for diesel fuel. On the other hand, the index for processed materials less foods and energy advanced 0.7%. Over the year, the index rose 3.4% after a 0.1% increase in December 2024.

Meanwhile, prices for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand grew 2.3% in December, the largest increase since January 2025, after moving up 0.5% in November. The gain was led by a 34.8% jump in the index for natural gas. At the same time, prices for slaughter hogs declined 10.1%. Over the year, prices for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand decreased 0.3% after moving up the same amount in November.

Manufacturing activity in the Fifth District contracted in January, but at a slightly slower pace than the previous month, with the composite manufacturing index inching up from -7 to -6. At the same time, the local business conditions index improved from -9 in December to -8 in January. Despite current weakness, manufacturers are more optimistic about the future, with the outlook for future local business conditions rising from 16 in December to 19 in January. The Fifth District consists of Virginia, Maryland, the Carolinas, the District of Columbia and most of West Virginia.

Among its components, shipments remained negative but contracted at a slower pace, increasing from -11 to -5. New orders improved slightly, ticking up from -8 to -6 in January. Employment worsened, falling from -1 to -6, and the vendor lead time index declined from 9 to 0. Meanwhile, the share of firms reporting backlogs worsened, decreasing from -7 to -13. The average growth rate of prices paid quickened, while average growth of prices received slowed in January.

Looking ahead, firms expect both price indexes to increase in the next 12 months, with both rising at a slightly faster pace than forecasted in December. Expectations for future shipments climbed from 28 to 34, while new orders increased from 27 to 36. Expectations for backlogs inched down from 5 to 4. Meanwhile, firms’ expectations about equipment and software spending turned negative, declining from 0 to -3. At the same time, expectations for capital expenditures improved but remained negative, increasing from -6 to -4. In sum, businesses in the Fifth District remain optimistic about future business conditions but pessimistic about future investment plans.

In January, Texas factory activity expanded notably after contracting the prior month. The production index increased from -3.0 to 11.2, moving above the series average of 9.6. The new orders and capacity utilization indexes also turned positive, rising 18.4 points to 11.8 and 11.7 points to 7.1, respectively. Meanwhile, shipments jumped 22.5 points to 12.0. The Eleventh District consists of all of Texas, northern Louisiana and southern New Mexico.

Consistent with the growth seen across indexes in January, perceptions of manufacturing business conditions strengthened, with the general business activity index increasing 10.1 points to -1.2. At the same time, the company outlook index rose 15.2 points to 2.9. On the other hand, the uncertainty index moved up 4.8 points from 0.0, remaining below the series average of 16.9.

Labor market indicators suggest strong growth in headcounts but almost no change in the workweek in January, with the employment index rising 9.6 points to 8.2 and the hours worked index stepping up 8.5 points to 0.7. Nearly 21.5% of firms reported net hiring, while a smaller percentage (13.3%) noted net layoffs.

Price pressures accelerated while wage pressures weakened in January. The prices paid for raw materials index inched up 1.9 points to 37.1. Meanwhile, the prices received for finished goods index jumped 9.7 points to 18.5, more than double the series average. The wage and benefits index decreased 4.3 points to 17.4, staying below the series average of 20.9.

The outlook for future manufacturing strengthened in January, despite the future production index declining 3.7 points to 29.2. Moreover, the future general business activity index and future company outlook index both moved up, increasing to 16.6 and 23.2, respectively.

New orders for manufactured goods increased 2.7% in November, following a 1.2% decline in October. Meanwhile, new orders for manufactured goods grew 3.4% over the year. When excluding transportation, new orders inched up 0.2% over the month and 0.7% year-over-year in November. Orders for durable goods jumped 5.3%, following a 2.1% decrease in October. Year to date, durable goods orders rose 7.3%. Nondurable goods orders stayed the same in November after declining 0.3% in October. Nondurable goods orders edged down 0.3% over the year.

New orders for nondefense aircraft and parts led the increase in durable goods orders, surging 97.6%, following October’s 17.9% drop. In November, the largest monthly decrease occurred in defense search and navigation equipment, which fell 9.7% after increasing 2.5% the prior month. The largest over-the-year changes occurred in nondefense aircraft and parts (up 111.8%) and mining, oil field and gas field machinery (down 6.8%).

Factory shipments declined 0.1% in November, after ticking up 0.1% in October. Shipments over the year rose 1.5%. Shipments excluding transportation increased 0.2% in November, following a 0.1% decrease the previous month. Shipments for durable goods dropped 0.3% in November, following a 0.5% rise in October, and are up 3.3% year to date. Meanwhile, nondurable goods shipments stayed the same after moving down 0.3% the prior month, and are down the same amount year to date.

Unfilled orders for all manufacturing industries increased 1.4% in November, after inching up 0.2% in October. Unfilled orders over the year jumped 9.4%. Inventories rose 1.1% year-over-year. The inventories-to-shipments ratio remained unchanged at 1.56 in November. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio for durable goods moved up to 7.04 in November from 6.93 in October.