Economic Data and Growth

In September, Philadelphia’s regional manufacturing activity was mixed. The index for current general business activity turned positive, rising from -7.0 to 1.7. Nearly 22% of firms reported increased activity this month, while 20% reported decreases and nearly 51% reported no change. On the other hand, the indexes for new orders and shipments declined and turned negative. Firms reported an increase in employment after declining last month, with the employment index rising back into positive territory at 10.7. Firms also provided forecasts on production levels, with a higher share of firms reporting an increase in production (nearly 38%) than those reporting a decrease (28%).

Price indexes moved higher, with firms continuing to report overall increases in prices. The prices paid index rose to its highest reading since December 2022, reflecting the notable portion of firms experiencing higher input costs. The prices received index also rose, undoing the previous month’s decrease.

Looking ahead, most future indicators increased. The index for future general business activity rose slightly to 15.8, indicating growing optimism among firms. A higher proportion of firms still expected increases in activity. Additionally, the new orders, shipments and future employment indexes also rose. Although the future prices paid index increased, the future prices received rose by a larger margin. Meanwhile, the future capital expenditures index moved up to its highest reading since March 2022.