Economic Data and Growth

Manufacturing activity in New York state grew in September for the first time in nearly a year, with the headline general business conditions index rising 16 points to 11.5. The new orders index climbed 17 points to 9.4, a multiyear high, while the shipments index rose 18 points to 17.9, its highest level in a year and a half. Unfilled orders increased slightly, while inventories rose 11 points to zero, indicating inventories are now level after two months of declines. Delivery times were little changed, and supply availability was the same reading (-2.1) as August.

Employment continued to shrink modestly, with the index for the number of employees coming in at -5.7. The average employee workweek recovered some after a steep drop the prior month, signaling a slight increase in hours worked. Input and selling prices were little changed, as reflected in the prices paid index at 23.2 and the prices received index at 7.4. Manufacturers continued to face rising costs while operating in a weakened pricing environment.

Firms were more optimistic about the future. The future business activity index rose eight points to 30.6, with nearly 45% of respondents expecting conditions to improve over the next six months. However, the capital spending index fell 11 points, dipping below zero for the first time since 2020.