News & Insights

Washington, D.C. – National Association of Manufacturers President and CEO Jay Timmons released the following statement in response to the Commerce Department’s investigation into potential tariffs on robotics and industrial machinery: 

“Manufacturers are working to increase capacity in the United States—and domestic production of robotics and industrial machinery can enhance both our industrial might and our national security. However, tariffs on critical manufacturing inputs would significantly increase costs on equipment and machinery on factory floors across the country, which could in turn stall investment in new plants and equipment right here at home at a time when manufacturers want to help President Trump create more U.S. manufacturing output and jobs. 

“The challenge facing the United States today is that our domestic industry can produce at most 84% of the inputs manufacturers need to build, modernize and operate our facilities and to increase production and output. That is true even if every manufacturer in the country is working at full capacity. That means that, at an absolute minimum, 16% of critical manufacturing inputs must be imported to manufacture more here in the U.S. That’s why manufacturers have offered practical pro-growth solutions to bring in these essential inputs without adding cost burdens, while rewarding manufacturers that invest, expand and create new jobs at home.” 

-NAM- 

The National Association of Manufacturers is the largest manufacturing association in the United States, representing small and large manufacturers in every industrial sector and in all 50 states. Manufacturing employs nearly 13 million men and women, contributes $2.90 trillion to the U.S. economy annually and accounts for 53% of private-sector research and development. The NAM is the powerful voice of the manufacturing community and the leading advocate for a policy agenda that helps manufacturers compete in the global economy and create jobs across the United States. For more information about the NAM or to follow us on Twitter and Facebook, please visit www.nam.org. 

Christina Keller’s path into manufacturing began away from the factory floor.

She studied abroad in Costa Rica and Chile, taught microbusiness classes for young women in Peru, graduated from high school in Switzerland, consulted for global firms after business school and worked for a nonprofit that provides solar energy to impoverished communities in Africa.

From early opportunities that sparked her passion for building teams to leadership roles where she has driven strategy and culture, Christina has navigated every stage of her career with an openness to growth and reinvention. Along the way, Christina drew inspiration from leaders like Oprah Winfrey, whom she had the opportunity to interview as chair of the Economic Club of Grand Rapids. Examples of resilience and authenticity left a lasting mark on how Christina approaches her own leadership style.

That journey has brought her to the helm of her company today, where as CEO of Cascade Engineering she is leading with a vision of innovation and community good.

In the latest installment of the NAM’s “Forge Your Path” series, Christina talks about how trust fuels innovation, why she believes in “taking those who are most ready” and how Cascade’s triple bottom line—people, planet and profit—continues to drive lasting change.

Q: What is one lesson or insight you’ve gained in leadership that you haven’t widely shared before but that has been a key part of your and/or your company’s success?

Christina: “One lesson I haven’t shared widely is that real innovation starts with trust—trust that every voice has value. At Cascade Engineering, I realized that when people feel safe to share ideas, even small operational suggestions, we uncover transformational solutions.

For example, some of our biggest advances—EcoCart; Pink Cart; the first all-plastic chair (Equa for Herman Miller); and the first all-plastic vehicle (Chrysler Concept Vehicle)—came from individuals within our organization and our partners who have felt comfortable enough to share ideas. This is one of my roles as a leader: I spend time cultivating systems where ideas can flow freely. It’s reinforced for me that the idea of collective thriving isn’t just a philosophy; it’s a leadership strategy that unlocks innovation at every level.”

Q: Can you share a quote or mantra that defines your approach to leadership?

Christina: “‘Take those who are most ready.’ If one person, one team or one community thrives and models collective thriving, it lifts up everyone around them and then creates pathways where other people can follow. This shapes how I make decisions, whether it is investing in physical artificial intelligence to lighten repetitive work, or enabling people through the Source, which helps overcome barriers to housing, child care and transportation. I see leadership as not a zero-sum game but as a multiplier. When we help one group thrive, it sparks growth and resilience across the whole system. And to get there, you start with those who are most ready and pour into them.”

Q: What accomplishments at your organization are you the proudest of and why?

Christina: “As a triple bottom-line organization, I often think along the lines of people, planet and profit. So from a people perspective, I am most proud of our work with helping to establish the Source, which has helped nearly 600 employees overcome more than 1,800 barriers to employment and demonstrating how businesses can directly improve lives. In our community, we have collectively shifted the recidivism rate, and the BBC spotlighted our work.

From a planet perspective, I am proud of our decades of being zero waste to landfill and our award from the Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries for our EcoCart, which uses post-consumer curbside bulky rigids in addition to taking back post-consumer trash containers from the field.

From a profit standpoint, I am most proud of our innovative products and our use of physical AI to build out our automation and layer on a rich history of product innovation that includes the first all-plastic chair, the first all-plastic vehicle, all of the bumpers, grills and chassis skirts for the heavy truck industry in North America and the premier waste-collection product—Evolution cart—which fits 40% more on a truck than others in the industry.”

Q: Where do you see your company in the next 5–10 years, and what are you hoping to achieve?

Christina: “I see Cascade Engineering as a leader in collective thriving, circular economy and physical AI. We will be a factory of the future, modeling what sustainable manufacturing can look like globally. We will be leaders in physical AI, utilizing automation and robotics not just to reduce costs, but to create safer, more human-centered jobs and to expand on our innovative creativity.

We will also expand our diversified portfolio of circular economy products, such as containers, flood barriers and medical solutions, and tackle real environmental and community challenges. Most importantly, we will continue to demonstrate collective thriving—business success, employee well-being and community growth are mutually reinforcing. My hope is that others in manufacturing will follow, accelerating an industrial movement toward sustainability and dignity at scale.”

Q: What are the past three books that you’ve read that you would recommend to your peers and why?

Christina: “One that I recommend is ‘The Circular Economy Handbook’ by Peter Lacy, Jessica Long and Wesley Spindler. It’s a practical and strategic guide to embedding circular economy principles in business. It’s enhanced in my mind the importance of life-cycle thinking as we consider the design of products. It also echoes what we did with EcoCart—making carts from recycled carts—and inspired me to think about how we can scale circularity across industries.

Another book is ‘How Minds Change’ by David McRaney. This book offers insights into persuasion, psychology and how people shift their beliefs. As leaders navigating innovation, sustainability and culture change, it reinforced for me that transformation isn’t only about new technology; it’s also about helping people move through the chance curve with dignity and understanding.

I’d also recommend ‘The Coming Wave’ by Mustafa Suleyman. It’s a compelling exploration of how AI and emerging technologies will reshape society. It sharpened my conviction that physical AI, when applied with foresight and responsibility, can create safer, smarter and more sustainable manufacturing.

Together, these books cover the essential themes that I continue to explore and I see as key areas for manufacturing leadership: circular economy, collective thriving and physical AI.”

Washington, D.C. – Last week, the National Association of Manufacturers released its quarterly Outlook Survey. The Q3 2025 Outlook Survey—the first to be administered after the passage of this year’s landmark tax legislation—shows markedly improved optimism among manufacturers. Manufacturers report increased optimism (65%) over the previous quarter (55.4%).

However, persistent uncertainty in familiar policy areas is edging up from the previous quarter.

• Trade uncertainty: 78.2% (up from 77.0%)
• Rising raw material costs: 68.1% (up from 66.1%)
• Increasing health care costs: 65.1% (up from 60.0%)

NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons remarked: “These results confirm what we’ve seen in the economic data—that the sector is still enormously challenged as manufacturing output took four months to recover from this spring’s dip, and optimism still falls below the survey’s historical average of 74%.”

“To supercharge the increase in optimism we’re starting to see, manufacturers need certainty across a full manufacturing strategy spanning sensible trade policy, permitting reform to unleash American energy dominance, modernized regulations and workforce investments,” Timmons said. “Put another way, so long as this uncertainty persists, manufacturers will not be able to tap fully into the strength of President Trump’s monumental and historic tax provisions, championed by our allies in the White House and Congress.”

NAM Chief Economist Victoria Bloom observed that “the third quarter optimism level aligns with August’s production data released by the Federal Reserve, which showed that manufacturing output was 100.3% of its 2017 average, barely above March’s level of 100.2%, taking four months to recover from April’s drop.”

“At the same time, manufacturers are projecting moderate growth over the next 12 months with production expected to rise 2.5% (up from 1.4% in Q2) and capital investments 1.0% (up from 0.3%),” Bloom said. “Costs are still expected to climb, but at a slightly slower pace than Q2, with raw material and input costs projected to increase 5.4% (down from 5.8%) and product prices up 3.7% (down from 4.3%). These findings reflect both the resilience of the sector and the real challenges still weighing on growth.”

The NAM releases these results to the public each quarter. Further information on the survey is available here.

-NAM-

The National Association of Manufacturers is the largest manufacturing association in the United States, representing small and large manufacturers in every industrial sector and in all 50 states. Manufacturing employs nearly 13 million men and women, contributes $2.93 trillion to the U.S. economy annually and accounts for 53% of private-sector research and development. The NAM is the powerful voice of the manufacturing community and the leading advocate for a policy agenda that helps manufacturers compete in the global economy and create jobs across the United States. For more information about the NAM or to follow us on Twitter and Facebook, please visit www.nam.org

Building permits declined 3.7% in August and 11.1% over the year. Permits for single-family homes in August decreased 2.2% from July and 11.5% over the year. Meanwhile, permits for buildings with five or more units dropped 6.7% from July and 10.8% over the year.

In August, housing starts declined 8.5% from July and 6% from August 2024. Starts for single-family homes fell 7% from July and 11.7% over the year. Meanwhile, buildings with five or more units dropped 11% over the month but jumped 15.8% over the year.

Meanwhile, housing completions increased 8.4% over the month but decreased by the same percentage over the year. Single-family home completions gained 6.7% from July and 5.6% from August 2024. Completions for buildings with five or more units grew 10.8% over the month but plunged 28.7% from one year ago.

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered its interest rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25% at its September meeting. In a change to its previous statement, the FOMC noted that job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up. At the same time, inflation has moved up. Nonetheless, the committee judged that downside risks to employment have risen, which has shifted the balance of risks and provided support for the decision to lower its interest rate target. One FOMC member, Stephen Miran, dissented, desiring to lower the target range by 50 basis points.

In the press conference following the meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell noted that job gains have slowed significantly, likely due to both lower immigration and lower labor force participation. Chairman Powell also noted that in recent months, goods inflation has picked up due to tariffs, while it has moved down for services.

The FOMC’s summary of economic projections, which maps out the Federal Reserve’s expectations for where interest rates may be headed in the future, signaled a more dovish stance than the June summary. Six Federal Reserve officials project there will be no additional rate cuts in 2025, while nine anticipate an additional 50 basis points worth of cuts in 2025. Furthermore, the projections show that officials expect inflation to remain elevated for longer than they expected in June. On the other hand, the projections show officials expect real GDP to rise more in 2025 than previously anticipated.

U.S. import prices rose 0.3% in August, after advancing 0.2% in July, with higher nonfuel import prices driving the increase. Over the past year, import prices stayed the same. Meanwhile, U.S. export prices stepped up 0.3% in August, with nonagricultural export prices driving the increase. Over the past year, export prices climbed 3.4%, the largest over-the-year rise since December 2022.

In August, U.S. import prices for manufacturing rose 0.2% over the year, but with significant divergences in prices across the industry. Petroleum and coal products manufacturing experienced the most significant over-the-year U.S. import price declines in August, falling 14.6%. On the other hand, the greatest yearly increase in U.S. import prices occurred in primary metal manufacturing, which advanced 11.3% from August 2024. Meanwhile, U.S. export prices for manufacturing in August grew 3.3% over the year, with primary metal manufacturing export prices exhibiting the largest rise (27%).

Fuel import prices decreased 0.8% over the month in August, following a 2.5% increase in July. Lower prices for petroleum and natural gas drove the decline, falling 0.2% and 13.2%, respectively. Over the past year, fuel import prices have fallen 10.1%. Import petroleum prices dropped 10.7% over the year in August, while natural gas prices surged 43.5% over that period. Nonfuel import prices rose 0.4% in August, the largest increase since April 2024. Higher prices for consumer goods, nonfuel industrial supplies, capital goods and automotives more than offset lower prices for foods, feeds and beverages. Nonfuel import prices increased 0.9% on an over-the-year basis.

After declining 0.2% in July, agriculture export prices stayed the same in August. Over the past 12 months, agriculture export prices advanced 5.1%. Meanwhile, nonagricultural export prices rose 0.3% in August. Higher prices for consumer goods, nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials, capital goods and automotives drove the increase. Over the past year, nonagricultural export prices jumped 3.2%, the largest over-the-year increase since December 2022.

Manufacturing activity in New York state declined in September for the first time since June, with the headline general business conditions index falling nearly 21 points to -8.7. The new orders index plummeted 35 points to -19.6, while the shipments index dropped nearly 30 points to -17.3, the lowest levels for both indexes since April 2024, indicating significant reductions in orders and shipments. Unfilled orders decreased further, from -5.5 to -6.9, while inventories increased 1.5 points to -4.9 in September, indicating that business inventories continue to shrink but at a slightly slower pace. Delivery times stayed the same, but supply availability slipped 3.3 points to -8.8.

Employment declined slightly in September, with the index for the number of employees coming in at -1.2. Meanwhile, the average employee workweek dipped to -5.1 from 0.2 in August, signaling a modest drop in hours worked. The prices paid index fell 8 points to 46.1 while the prices received index also moderated slightly, declining 1.3 points to 21.6, a reflection of a slower pace of increase for prices received and prices paid.

Firms’ optimism regarding the future remained positive but subdued in September. The future business activity index stepped down 1.2 points to 14.8. In the next six months, new orders are still expected to increase, and at roughly the same pace anticipated last month, clocking in at 16.6. The future employment index fell to 1.2, suggesting that employment levels are not expected to grow meaningfully over the next six months. Input prices are expected to still climb but at a slower pace, falling from 64.2 to 57.8. On the other hand, selling price expectations ticked up 1.8 points to 43.1. Capital spending plans remained soft, falling 3 points to -3.9.

In September, Philadelphia’s regional manufacturing activity expanded notably following weakness in August. Rising from -0.3 to 23.2, the index for current general business activity recorded its highest reading since January. Just 16.7% of firms reported decreases in activity this month, while 39.9% noted increases. The indexes for new orders and shipments both improved, rising from -1.9 to 12.4 and from 4.5 to 26.1, respectively. Meanwhile, the employment index was little changed at 5.6, but the average employee workweek index rose 10.2 points to 14.9.

The prices paid index fell from 66.8 to 46.8, while the prices received index also declined, moving to 18.8 from 36.1. As has been the case for many months, the prices received index remained lower than the prices paid index, indicating that manufacturers have been absorbing a portion of higher costs paid.

Looking ahead, indicators showed expectations for future growth have continued to improve from previous months. After stepping up 3.5 points in August, expectations for future general business activity rose 6.5 points to 31.5 in September. A higher proportion of firms (52.2%) expect increases in activity compared to last month’s reading of 40.5%, though a higher proportion (20.8%) also anticipate activity will decline, compared to last month’s reading of 15.5%. Meanwhile, the future new orders index edged up from 39.2 to 42.4, but the future shipments index weakened from 40.3 to 31.0. The capital expenditures index fell from 38.4 to 12.5. The future prices paid index ticked up from 68.4 to 69.8, and the future prices received index jumped in September from 48.5 to 64.8. Additionally, the index for future employment increased from 12.7 to 23.7.

Industrial production ticked up 0.1% in August, while manufacturing output increased 0.2% after edging down 0.1% in July. At 100.3% of its 2017 average, manufacturing production in August rose just 0.9% from the same month last year. Capacity utilization for manufacturing inched up to 76.8%, up 0.1 percentage point from July and advanced 1.2% over the past year. Capacity utilization remains 1.4 percentage points below its long-term average from 1972 to 2024.

In August, major market groups posted mixed results. Consumer goods production rose 0.4%, while business equipment output dipped 0.1%. The rise in production of consumer durables (up 0.6%) was primarily driven by automotive products’ output growth, advancing 1.3%, while the index for consumer nondurables increased 0.3%, experiencing gains in nearly every category. Among business equipment, the 1.2% drop in the index for industrial and other equipment more than offset the 2.1% and 0.7% rise in the indexes for transit equipment and information processing equipment, respectively. On the other hand, the indexes for construction supplies and materials rose 0.6% and 0.1%, respectively, while the index for business supplies fell 0.4% in August.

Durable goods manufacturing rose 0.2% in August and 1.5% from the year prior. Monthly growth was greatest for motor vehicles and parts (up 2.6%), while furniture and related products and miscellaneous manufacturing posted the largest declines at 1.7% each. Meanwhile, led by a 2.5% boost in textile and product mills output, nondurable goods manufacturing increased 0.3% in August and 0.7% from August 2024.

The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative published an official request for public comment yesterday on the U.S.–Mexico–Canda Agreement. The notice is part of the process for the schedule six-year review of the landmark agreement, which the NAM helped to shape and secure back in 2019.

The timeline: The deadline for comments is Nov. 3, ahead of a USTR hearing on Nov. 17.

The topics: The notice includes specific topics that the USTR would like respondents to address, including:

• “Any aspect of the operation or implementation of the USMCA”;
• “Any issues of compliance with the Agreement”;
• “Recommendations for specific actions that USTR should propose ahead of the Joint Review to promote balanced trade, new market access and alignment on economic security with Mexico and Canada”;
• “Factors affecting the investment climate in North America and in the territories of each Party, as well as the effectiveness of the USMCA in promoting investment that strengthens U.S. competitiveness, productivity and technological leadership”; and
• “Strategies for strengthening North American economic security and competitiveness, including collaborative work under the Competitiveness Committee, and cooperation on issues related to nonmarket policies and practices of other countries.”

Mexico’s notice: The government of Mexico also opened a 60-day window for public comment.

• For NAM members seeking to comment through their affiliates, the notice can be accessed here.

What NAM members should do: The NAM is issuing an urgent call for member feedback on specific nontariff barriers.

• This feedback might be part of bilateral talks with Canada and Mexico, and so should be sent to the NAM as soon as possible, the NAM’s trade experts stressed. The NAM will be submitting a draft letter to the USTR summarizing manufacturers’ priorities for policymakers.

The NAM’s focus: The NAM asks that members focus on four broad topics:

• Technical fixes to make the USMCA function better
• Bilateral issues in Mexico or Canada that the review could help address
• New mechanisms or tools that could be built to counter shared challenges in third markets, particularly nonmarket economies
• Sector-specific agreements or commitments that could be pursued to strengthen North American manufacturing

Get in touch: If you are interested in contributing to this important message about an essential pillar of U.S. trade policy, please contact NAM Director of International Policy Kevin Doyle.