News & Insights

Demand for U.S. durable goods bounced back in August following two months of declines, according to U.S. Census Bureau preliminary data out Thursday.

What’s going on: New orders for durable manufactured items rose $8.9 billion, or 2.9%, to $312.1 billion last month, led by a surge in transportation equipment.

• The figures come after a 2.7% July decrease in durable goods orders and a 9.3% decline in June.
• Excluding transportation, new orders went up 0.4%, and excluding defense, they rose 1.9%.
• Orders for transportation equipment, which tend to be volatile month to month, went up $8.1 billion, or 7.9%, to $110.2 billion after declining 9.4% in July.

Shipments and unfilled orders: In August, durable goods shipments inched down $0.5 billion, or 0.2%, to $307.5 billion, following a 1.6% increase in July.

• Unfilled orders, which have risen for 13 of the past 14 months, rose $9.6 billion last month, or 0.7%, to $1,479.0 billion after a flat July.

Inventories and capital goods: Inventories of durable goods ticked down in August, decreasing $0.1 billion, following 10 back-to-back monthly increases.

• Nondefense new orders for durable goods increased $4.6 billion, or 5.1%, to $95.0 billion in August. Shipments declined $0.7 billion, or 0.8%, to $89.2 billion.

In other economic news: Sales of pre-owned homes declined 0.2% in August, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.0 million units ( The Wall Street Journal, subscription).

• The median home price rose to $422,600, up 2% from August 2024 and the highest-ever price for August.

Late last week, the Advisory Committee for Immunization Practices, which advises the Centers for Disease Control on vaccine safety and efficacy, recommended changes to the childhood vaccine schedule.

What’s going on: ACIP voted on a recommendation that children age 4 and under no longer receive the combined measles-mumps-rubella-varicella vaccine but instead receive two separate shots: one to vaccinate against measles, mumps, and rubella, and a separate varicella (chickenpox) shot.

Why it matters: The Vaccines for Children Program, and other federal health programs such as Medicaid, use ACIP recommendations to determine vaccine coverage. The committee’s vote—assuming the CDC director approves the recommendation, which is expected—means that these programs likely will no longer cover the MMRV shot for children under the age of 4.

• The combined MMRV vaccine has been proven safe and effective, according to the CDC itself.
• The vote also means private health insurers are no longer required to cover these vaccines. However, America’s Health Insurance Plans (AHIP) said its members will continue coverage of these and other previously recommended vaccines through the end of 2026.

What’s next: Acting CDC Director Jim O’Neill must approve ACIP’s recommendations. In the past, CDC directors have almost always taken recommendations from ACIP.

• Some states, including California, Colorado, Oregon, Nevada, and Washington, have issued their own guidance in an attempt to maintain access to these vaccines.

The NAM says: “Vaccines have revolutionized public health, saved millions from serious and deadly illnesses, and insulated our economy from destabilizing epidemics,” said NAM Vice President of Domestic Policy Jake Kuhns. “Continued access to immunizations is important to help keep manufacturing workers and their families safe and healthy.”

Incidents of high-value “man in the middle” cyber fraud have risen in recent years, taking a financial toll on global shipping (BBC).

What’s going on: “This type of fraud involves a hacker being able to intercept the communication between two parties, such as emails. The criminal then impersonates both in order to try to steal [global shipping firms’] sensitive information, such as log-in details or financial data, or even to take control of a company’s computer system.”

• The number of attacks is increasing, having gone from 10 in 2021 to at least 64 in 2024, according to a research group at NHL Stenden University of Applied Sciences in the Netherlands.

Who’s doing it: “Many incidents are linked to the governments of four countries . . .  Russia, China, North Korea and Iran . . . Other attacks are purely for financial extortion, be it gangs from Nigeria or elsewhere.”

Why it’s important: “Law firm HFW’s data shows that such hacking is a growing problem for the shipping sector, both attacks on ships and ports. It says that between 2022 and 2023 the cost of dealing with an attack doubled to an average of $550,000.”

• In those cases where the firms are unable to get rid of the cyber criminals and are forced to pay them, “HFW says the average cost of a ransom payment is now $3.2 million.”

A big target: About 80% of the world’s trade travels by ocean, and disruptions caused by hackers can make shipping firms’ costs increase enormously, “leav[ing] them short of capacity.”

Why it’s on the rise: The shipping industry’s increasing digitalization means “there are now simply more routes for hackers to use . . . while new communication technologies, Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite service, for example, have meant that ships have become more connected to the outside world. And therefore more hackable.”

• Compounding the problem is that adoption of digital technologies in the sector often happens in “a piecemeal way, and involves technology that can go rapidly out of date”—in large part because firms can’t afford to have their ships out of commission long enough for updates.
• Also, sensors used by ships to monitor emissions transmit data hackers can often access.

How it’s being addressed: “Ship management systems are now required—rather than simply advised— to include increasingly stringent cyber security measures, ranging from basic security hygiene to more technical operational and IT measures.”

NAM in action: The NAM supports legislation to crack down on supply chain theft and fraud and is working with industry partners to highlight the growing issue for policymakers.

The Manufacturing Institute, the 501(c)3 workforce development and education affiliate of the National Association of Manufacturers, announced that Amatrol will be an official sponsor of the Federation for Advanced Manufacturing Education USA.

The background: FAME USA, an initiative founded by Toyota and now run by the MI, is the premier American model of manufacturing skills training, developing highly skilled, professional and sought-after talent to meet the unique needs and challenges of modern manufacturing.

• Amatrol is a globally recognized leader in technical education, providing critical certification, training equipment and continuing education materials to educational institutions and manufacturers.

The partnership: Amatrol is now the exclusive FAME training equipment and content sponsor for the advanced manufacturing, industrial maintenance and smart manufacturing space.

• Together, the two institutions will advance workforce readiness and upskilling as the sector embraces artificial intelligence and the Manufacturing 4.0 revolution.
• Amatrol will continue its Diamond Sponsorship of the FAME National Conference while extending its support to the MI’s Workforce Summit as a Gold Sponsor.

The MI says: “The Manufacturing Institute’s mission is building and strengthening the manufacturing workforce, and FAME USA is a key part of fulfilling that mission. Manufacturers will need to fill 3.8 million jobs by 2033, and half of those are expected to go unfilled because we don’t have the people with the right skills,” said MI President and Executive Director Carolyn Lee.

• “Through the partnership with Amatrol, we’re creating a clear pathway for FAME USA chapters to access top-tier training resources—whether ensuring new chapters start with great equipment from day one, or giving existing chapters the opportunity to strengthen and expand their training programs as needs evolve.”

“Most importantly, this will allow us to work more cohesively with instructors throughout the FAME initiative and help them be more successful,” said Amatrol President Paul Perkins.

The Commerce Department published a FRN today indicating it opened an investigation on September 2 “to determine the effects on the national security of imports of robotics and industrial machinery.”

A wide scope: The NAM’s back-of-the-envelope calculation finds that this could affect some half a trillion dollars in manufacturing equipment and inputs, the largest 232 investigation to date.

• The FRN cites examples of products in the scope of investigation, including robots, programmable computer-controlled mechanical systems, CNC machining centers, turning and milling machines, grinding and deburring equipment, and industrial stamping and pressing machines.

Timing: Public comments are due in 21 days, or by October 17.

A twist: In addition to comments on the role of foreign supply chains in meeting U.S. demand for such products, this FRN probes for impacts on employment from use of robotics and the ability of foreign actors to weaponize foreign-built robotics and machinery.

• Please thoroughly read the lengthy list of criteria for consideration of tariffs on these products as you develop company-specific comments.

What’s next: The NAM team will solicit specific input as it develops its submission, but you are welcome to start sending insights, ideas and data to NAM Vice President of International Economic Policy Andrea Durkin immediately.

Another FRN: Commerce also published a second FRN today indicating that it opened an investigation on September 2 to determine the effects on national security of imports of personal protective equipment, medical consumables and medical equipment including devices.

• The FRN cites examples of products in the scope of this investigation, including respirators, syringes, infusion pumps, medical supplies common in all hospitals, diagnostic and laboratory reagents and durable patient equipment such as wheelchairs, and medical devices, including those used to diagnose, monitor and treat patients such as coronary stents, insulin pumps, blood glucose monitors, MRI machines and more.

Timing: Public comments are again due in 21 days, or October 17.

Get in touch: The NAM team will solicit input on this FRN as it develops a submission, but again your ideas and insights are welcome as soon as possible. Please contact Senior Director of International Policy Anne Collett.

The NAM says: “Manufacturers are working to increase capacity in the United States—and domestic production of robotics and industrial machinery can enhance both our industrial might and our national security. However, tariffs on critical manufacturing inputs would significantly increase costs on equipment and machinery on factory floors across the country, which could in turn stall investment in new plants and equipment right here at home at a time manufacturers want to help President Trump create more U.S. manufacturing output and jobs,” NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons said in a public statement.

• “The challenge facing the United States today is that our domestic industry can produce at most 84% of the inputs manufacturers need to build, modernize and operate our facilities and to increase production and output. That is true even if every manufacturer in the country is working at full capacity.”
• “That means that, at an absolute minimum, 16% of critical manufacturing inputs must be imported to manufacture more here in the U.S. That’s why manufacturers have offered practical pro-growth solutions to bring in these essential inputs without adding cost burdens, while rewarding manufacturers that invest, expand and create new jobs at home.”

Washington, D.C. – National Association of Manufacturers President and CEO Jay Timmons released the following statement in response to the Commerce Department’s investigation into potential tariffs on robotics and industrial machinery: 

“Manufacturers are working to increase capacity in the United States—and domestic production of robotics and industrial machinery can enhance both our industrial might and our national security. However, tariffs on critical manufacturing inputs would significantly increase costs on equipment and machinery on factory floors across the country, which could in turn stall investment in new plants and equipment right here at home at a time when manufacturers want to help President Trump create more U.S. manufacturing output and jobs. 

“The challenge facing the United States today is that our domestic industry can produce at most 84% of the inputs manufacturers need to build, modernize and operate our facilities and to increase production and output. That is true even if every manufacturer in the country is working at full capacity. That means that, at an absolute minimum, 16% of critical manufacturing inputs must be imported to manufacture more here in the U.S. That’s why manufacturers have offered practical pro-growth solutions to bring in these essential inputs without adding cost burdens, while rewarding manufacturers that invest, expand and create new jobs at home.” 

-NAM- 

The National Association of Manufacturers is the largest manufacturing association in the United States, representing small and large manufacturers in every industrial sector and in all 50 states. Manufacturing employs nearly 13 million men and women, contributes $2.90 trillion to the U.S. economy annually and accounts for 53% of private-sector research and development. The NAM is the powerful voice of the manufacturing community and the leading advocate for a policy agenda that helps manufacturers compete in the global economy and create jobs across the United States. For more information about the NAM or to follow us on Twitter and Facebook, please visit www.nam.org. 

Global nuclear operational capacity will increase more than 100% in the next 25 years, according to new International Atomic Energy Agency projections.

What’s going on: “For the fifth year in a row, the [IAEA] has revised up its projections for the expansion of nuclear power, as global momentum continues to build behind this clean and secure source of energy.”

• By 2050, capacity will reach 2.6 times its 2024 level, “with small modular reactors (SMRs) expected to play a pivotal role in this expansion.”
• The projections—which include all “operating reactors, possible license renewals, planned shutdowns, power uprates to increase output levels and plausible and ongoing construction projects foreseen for the next few decades”— are included in the IAEA’s annual report, released earlier this month at the 69th IAEA General Conference in Vienna.

The current state: By the end of last year, there were 417 nuclear power reactors in operation worldwide, with a capacity of 377 gigawatts electric.

• In the low-case projection, nuclear electrical-generating capacity is expected to increase to 992 GW(e), while in the high-case projection, it’s slated to go up to 561 GW(e).

Why it’s important: “As a clean, safe and abundant energy source, nuclear is a key piece of the successful all-of-the-above strategy the U.S. needs to meet growing energy demand that will power growth in domestic advanced manufacturing,” said NAM Director of Energy and Resources Policy Michael Davin.

Real GDP grew at an annual rate of 3.8% in the second quarter, according to the third and last estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This represents a 0.5 percentage point increase from the second estimate of 3.3% and 0.8 percentage point jump from the first estimate of 3.0%.

• Meanwhile, the revised estimate for the first quarter showed real GDP decreased 0.6%, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate of -0.5%.

What’s behind it: The upward revision of GDP in Q2 primarily reflects higher consumer spending.

• “Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 2.9% in the second quarter, revised up 1.0 percentage point from the previous estimate,” the BEA reported.

What it means for manufacturers: “The upward revisions to consumer spending and business investment in the second quarter are positive signs, given that manufacturers’ optimism and every forecasted metric in the latest NAM Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey increased notably in the third quarter,” said NAM Chief Economist Victoria Bloom.

• “Although investment in equipment picked up, spending on structures, which represent factories and infrastructure, contracted 7.5% in the second quarter amid an environment of heightened uncertainty.”

Low-carbon hydrogen is on track for explosive worldwide growth through 2030 (POLITICO Pro’s ENERGYWIRE, subscription).

What’s going on: “The International Energy Agency reported Friday that ‘clean’ hydrogen production will jump fivefold by the end of the decade from projects that are already operational or have reached financial close. More than 200 projects in the sector have finalized financial deals since 2020, it said.”

• It’s a big change from 2024, when global hydrogen demand rose 2% (though most of that was from traditional-fuel projects).
• Clean hydrogen—hydrogen gas produced with little to no emissions, either from renewables or via the capture of “blue” carbon from traditional energy sources—is seen as a way to cut emissions, particularly in sectors that have traditionally been difficult to decarbonize.

China’s big role: “China is driving much of the growth of green hydrogen produced with machines called electrolyzers.”

• This accounts for some 65% of global green hydrogen capacity that has either already been installed or gotten to financial closing.
• Renewable hydrogen in China could be cost-competitive by the end of the decade due to low technology and capital costs, according to the report.

And elsewhere in Asia: “Southeast Asia, where hydrogen production consumes 8% of the gas supply, also is emerging as a major market for the fuel to support chemical industries,” the report said.

In the U.S.: But low-carbon hydrogen projects are expected to decline in the U.S., as tax credits for them phase down.

• Production is expected to decline to 150,000 annual metric tons by 2030, down from 1.2 million estimated last year, according to BloombergNEF. And a pending review of Department of Energy projects could cut that further.
• However, “even if DOE funds are nixed, some hub projects may be economical. In a second research note this week, BloombergNEF said remaining hydrogen tax credits at a maximum could provide $90 billion over 10 years for the hubs.”

Canceled projects: Clean hydrogen production could increase to 37 million metric tons a year by 2030, but that estimate is nearly 25% lower than last year’s projection.

• Eighty percent of that decline is due to canceled projects in the U.S., Europe, Australia and Africa. These initiatives represent approximately 3% of the total pipeline.

The NAM’s take: “Manufacturers believe the U.S. should be supporting a robust and stable domestic hydrogen industry, which can play a role in achieving energy dominance and fuel security,” said NAM Vice President of Domestic Policy Chris Phalen.  “We must not cede leadership over innovation in emerging energy technologies to China.”

Traditional energy exploration and production in the U.S. declined slightly in the third quarter, as oil and gas executives reported rising concern about tariffs and trade uncertainty—and decreasing optimism about the state of the industry (POLITICO Pro, subscription).

What’s going on: A quarterly survey of oil and gas companies released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas quotes industry executives who pointed to concerns about various administration policies, from tariffs to energy.

• The survey of 139 energy-firm executives in northern Louisiana, Texas and southern New Mexico found that oil companies were drilling less as the administration’s 15% tariff on imported steel required for oil-and-gas infrastructure continued.
• The survey’s company index also slipped, from -6.4 in Q2 to -17.6.

Why it’s important: “Oil executives told the Dallas Fed earlier this year that Trump’s push to lower fuel prices, which lessens the economic incentive for producers to drill, was incompatible with his stated desire to increase production.”

• Tariffs on many imported goods have increased the cost of drilling “at a time when producers are struggling with an oversupplied market, sluggish demand and weak prices.”

What they’re saying: “Tariffs are increasing our supply costs,” said one oil-and-gas support services firm executive.

• “The administration is pushing for $40 per barrel crude oil, and with tariffs on foreign tubular goods, [input] prices are up, and drilling is going to disappear,” an exploration and production company leader said in his survey response. “The oil industry is once again going to lose valuable employees.”
• Said another: “The uncertainty from the administration’s policies has put a damper on all investment in the oilpatch. Those who can are running for the exits.”