Input Stories

Manufacturing activity in New York state dropped dramatically in March, wiping out gains from the previous month. The headline general business activity index fell 25.7 points to -20.0. The new orders index declined 26.3 points to 11.4, and the shipments index dropped 22.7 points to -8.5, reflecting significant deterioration in both orders and shipments. Unfilled orders slipped to -2.0 from 1.1, while inventories inched up from 8.7 to 13.3, the highest reading in more than two years. Delivery times were little changed, dipping 4.4 points to 1.0, while supply availability improved slightly, edging up to -1.0 from -2.2.

Employment and hours worked both continued their slow decline in March, with the index for the number of employees falling from -3.6 to -4.1 and the average employee workweek slipping -1.3 to -2.5. Meanwhile, both input and selling price increases picked up, reflected in the prices paid index rising 4.7 points to 44.9, the fastest pace of increase in nearly two years, and the prices received index increasing 2.8 points to 22.4, the highest reading since May 2023.

Firms are less optimistic than they have been in previous months. The index for future business activity decreased 9.5 points to 12.7, falling for the second month in a row. Employment and the average employee workweek are forecasted to weaken, a change from expected growth in the six months ahead in February. New orders are anticipated to increase but at a slower pace than previously expected, while capital spending plans weakened. Input prices are expected to remain high. Meanwhile, supply availability is forecasted to contract slightly.