Economic Data and Growth
Small Business Optimism Drops Below Average as Uncertainty and Inflation Concerns Rise
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index stepped down 3 points to 95.8 in March, falling below the 52-year average of 98.0. March’s decrease was due primarily to a decline in earnings trends and expected business conditions. Of the 10 components included in the index, eight decreased and two stayed the same. Meanwhile, the Uncertainty Index …
Trade Costs Climb as Import and Export Prices Pick Up
U.S. import prices increased 0.8% in March, after rising 0.9% in February, with higher nonfuel and fuel prices driving the increase. Over the year, import prices advanced 2.1%, the largest 12-month increase since December 2024. Meanwhile, U.S. export prices climbed 1.6% in March, driven by higher prices for nonagricultural and agricultural exports. Over the past …
New York Factory Activity Rebounds as Orders and Shipments Hit Their Strongest Pace Since 2023
Manufacturing activity in New York state expanded in April, with the headline business conditions index rising 11.2 points to 11.0. The new orders index increased 12.9 points to 19.3, while the shipments index soared 27.1 points to 20.2, the highest level for both indexes since 2023. Unfilled orders decreased 1.7 points to 9.1, while inventories …
Philly Manufacturing Survey Signals Stronger Momentum as Orders and Shipments Increase
In April, Philadelphia’s regional manufacturing activity expanded for the fourth consecutive month, with the index for general business activity advancing from 18.1 to 26.7. This month, 32.6% of firms reported increases in activity, while only 5.9% noted decreases. The index for new orders jumped from 8.6 to 33.0, while the shipments index climbed 11.8 points …
Producer Prices Climb Year Over Year as Goods Inflation Accelerates
The Producer Price Index for final demand (also known as wholesale prices) rose 0.5% over the month in March, unchanged from the 0.5% increase in February and below expectations. Over the year, producer prices jumped 4.0%, up from 3.4% in February and the largest 12-month increase since February 2023. Meanwhile, prices for final demand excluding …
Industrial Output Retreats as Factory Production Slips
Industrial production declined 0.5% in March, while manufacturing output ticked down 0.1% after moving up 0.4% in February. At 97.3% of its 2017 average, manufacturing production advanced 0.5% from March 2025. Capacity utilization for manufacturing was 75.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from February but up 1.1% over the past year. Capacity utilization remained 2.9 percentage …
Survey: Trade Policies Shake Up Manufacturers’ Economic Outlook
Q1 2025 NAM Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey. What’s going on: In the most recent survey, conducted from Feb. 11 to Feb. 28, trade uncertainties moved to the top of the list of manufacturers’ concerns—with 76.2% of respondents citing them as their primary worry. Increased raw material costs came in second, cited by 62.3% of those surveyed. …
