News & Insights

Consumer confidence edged down 0.7 points in May to 93.1. Among its components, the Present Situation Index contracted while the Expectations Index improved as customers’ concerns regarding the present situation worsened and concerns about the future eased.

The Present Situation Index, reflecting current business and labor market conditions, declined 3.2 points to 121.2. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index, which reflects customers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, rose 1.0 point to 74.4, remaining below the recession signal threshold of 80 since February 2025.

Views of the current labor market situation worsened slightly in May, with 25.5% of consumers saying jobs were “plentiful,” down from April (26.9%), while 18.6% said jobs were “hard to get,” also down from April (19.4%). Looking to the future, 17.5% expect more jobs to be available, up from 16.7% in April, while 26.0% anticipate fewer jobs, down from 26.8% the previous month.

Consumers’ views of the economy remained pessimistic in May. In addition, mentions of oil, gas and war continued to be elevated as consumers expressed concern over the conflict in the Middle East. Consumers’ 12-month inflation expectations edged down but remained elevated, and the proportion of consumers expecting higher interest rates remained near 50.0%. At the same time, the share of consumers who believe that a recession is “very likely” over the next year rose, and the share believing a recession is “not likely” declined in May.

Buying plans for cars, with a clear preference for used cars, continued to rise in May, and purchasing plans for homes inched up. Meanwhile, consumers’ plans for buying other big-ticket items declined. At the same time, consumers’ intentions to purchase more services fell. Among service categories, restaurants, bars and take-out remained the top planned service spending category alongside streaming, internet and mobile services and beauty and personal care. Overall, consumers’ views of their current and future financial situation weakened slightly in May.