Consumer Confidence Rises as Expectations Strengthen

Consumer confidence rose 7.5 points in October to 91.7. Among its components, the Present Situation Index and Expectations Index both strengthened as consumers’ views of current conditions and their outlook for the future improved.

The Present Situation Index, reflecting current business and labor market conditions, rose 8.6 points to 120.4. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index, which reflects consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, moved up 6.9 points to 72.6, remaining below the recession signal threshold of 80 since February 2025.

Views of the current labor market improved in October, with 26.7% of consumers saying jobs were “plentiful,” up from 24.3% in September, while 21.4% said jobs were “hard to get,” unchanged from the prior month. Looking to the future, 15.2% expect more jobs to be available, up from 14.7% in September, while 26.3% anticipate fewer jobs, down from 27.6% the previous month.

Consumers’ views of the economy were more optimistic in October. Mentions of war and conflict eased from September. On the other hand, mentions of prices and the high cost of food, groceries, oil and diesel rose from the month prior. Consumers’ 12-month inflation expectations declined in October but remained elevated. Looking forward, when asked about the likelihood of a recession over the next 12 months, “somewhat likely” remained the most cited answer.

In October, buying plans for both cars and homes declined slightly. Consumers’ plans to purchase other big-ticket items moderated, while intentions to spend more on services also weakened. Among the service categories, restaurants, bars and takeout remained the top planned service spending category, alongside streaming, internet and mobile services, utilities, healthcare and beauty and personal care. Overall, consumers’ views of their current and future financial situation improved in October.