Input Stories

Manufacturers are “deeply apprehensive” about their economic future (Axios).

What’s going on: That’s the takeaway “from a slew of recent surveys by regional Federal Reserve banks, along with the Fed’s regular compilation of anecdotal information.”

• The just-released Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, which is published eight times a year and is “based on what business contacts around the country are saying about [market] conditions,” includes 80 uses of the word “uncertainty.” 
• Indeed, durable goods orders—a solid reflection of business investment plans—were essentially unchanged in March excluding transportation equipment, according to new data out today from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Other surveys agree: The Beige Book release comes on the heels of surveys by the Fed banks in New York, Philadelphia and Richmond, all of which have shown a decline in manufacturer sentiment about the future.

Our view: “Although negative changes in economic activity were subdued in this latest Beige Book release, there’s ample evidence that goods purchases largely continued at pace in an effort to escape tariff-related price increases,” said NAM Chief Economist Victoria Bloom.

• “Therefore, this report doesn’t indicate that severe economic damage has already been realized. Instead, it highlights the expected deterioration that is to come.”