News & Insights

Manufacturing activity in the Fifth District declined in October, but at a slower pace than the previous month, with the composite manufacturing index moving up from -17 to -4. Meanwhile, the local business conditions index increased from -12 in September to -1 in October. Despite improvements in most indicators in October, manufacturers are more pessimistic about the future, with the outlook for future local business conditions falling from -1 in September to -5 in October. The Fifth Federal Reserve District consists of Virginia, Maryland, the Carolinas, the District of Columbia and most of West Virginia.

Among its components, shipments moved into positive territory, rising from -20 to 4. New orders and employment remained negative but contracted at a slower pace, stepping up to -6 and -10, respectively. The vendor lead time index declined from 10 to 6 in October. Meanwhile, the share of firms reporting backlogs eased, moving from -21 to -16. The average growth rate of prices paid and prices received both fell in October.

Looking ahead, firms still expect both price indexes to increase in the next 12 months, but with both rising at a slower rate than forecasted in September. Expectations for future shipments jumped from 0 to 13, while new orders increased from 8 to 12. Expectations for backlogs worsened, falling from -8 to -12. Meanwhile, firms’ expectations about equipment and software spending remained negative but improved from -9 to -6. Expectations for capital expenditures moved into positive territory, increasing from -11 to 1. In sum, businesses in the Fifth District are somewhat more optimistic about new investment plans while remaining cautious about future business conditions.