Input Stories

The S&P Global Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI fell from 52.5 to 51.9 in November, a four-month low, but remained positive. This continues the trend in business conditions with 10 of the past 11 months signaling growth. Factory production and new order growth both decreased in November, with new orders driving the weakening in the PMI. Meanwhile, export orders declined for the fifth consecutive month, increasing downside risks to production in December.

Inventories continued to grow in November as the stock of finished goods rose to the highest level in survey history. At the same time, supplier delivery times lengthened for a third consecutive month, with respondents linking the increase to tariff-related supply constraints. Manufacturers’ input cost inflation declined to the lowest level since February but continued to remain high by historical norms. Meanwhile, selling prices for goods grew in November but stayed below rates seen in recent months. Overall, price increases slowed for manufacturers but accelerated for the service industry.

Overall business activity climbed to a four-month high, edging up from 54.6 in October to 54.8 in November. Again, this reading was accompanied by the largest rise in new business seen in 2025, led by the services sector and an increase in manufacturing output. Overall, new orders growth was the largest seen since December 2024 alongside a buildup of unsold stock. Employment rose for the 11th time in the past 12 months; however, companies showed a reluctance to take on staff as the rate of job creation continues to slow.

Meanwhile, optimism about future business conditions jumped in November to its highest level this year. The optimism reflects reduced concerns about tariffs and political disruptions, boosted by the end of the government shutdown. In addition, companies are hopeful for greater policy support, including lower interest rates and government fiscal stimulus.