Input Stories

In May, the U.S. manufacturing sector contracted for the third consecutive month and at a slightly faster pace than the prior month, with the ISM Manufacturing^® PMI decreasing to 48.5% from 48.7% in April. Customer demand and output slowed, while inputs started to weaken. The New Orders and Production Indexes continued to contract but at a slower pace, rising to 47.6% and 45.4%, respectively. Meanwhile, the New Export Orders and Imports Indexes contracted at a faster pace, plummeting to 40.1% and 39.9%, respectively. As anticipated, inventories (46.7%) contracted after growing in April, as companies completed pull-forward deliveries ahead of increased tariffs.

The New Orders Index contracted for the fourth consecutive month but at a slightly slower pace than the prior month, a 0.4 percentage point rise from April. The index hasn’t shown consistent growth since a 24-month streak of expansion ended in May 2022. Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, two—petroleum and coal products; and machinery—reported an increase in new orders. Respondents noted weakening demand, with a lack of new orders from overseas customers being a key factor.

The New Export Orders Index contracted for a third consecutive month and at the fastest pace since the pandemic to 40.1%, 3.0 percentage points lower than April. The sharp contraction was due to the combination of slower global growth as well as the application of retaliatory tariffs applied to a variety of U.S.-manufactured products. Meanwhile, the Imports Index contracted for a second consecutive month, plunging 7.2 percentage points to 39.9% in May. Imports continue to contract as tariff pricing results in lower demand compared to prior months.

The Employment Index contracted for the fourth consecutive month but at a slower pace than the prior month, a 0.3 percentage point bump from April. Of the six-largest manufacturing sectors, only one—petroleum and coal products—reported increased employment. Companies continued to reduce headcounts through layoffs, attrition and hiring freezes, while opting for layoffs at an accelerating pace due to uncertainty around future demand.

The Prices Index fell 0.4 percentage points to 69.4%, indicating raw materials prices increased for the eighth straight month in May, driven by the dramatic rise in steel and aluminum prices impacting the entire supply chain, as well as the broad 10% tariff applied to imported goods. Forty-five percent of companies reported paying higher prices, down slightly from 49% in April but still up dramatically from 21% in January.