Regulatory and Legal Reform

Manufacturers are increasingly worried about the future of trade and rising raw material costs, according to the Q1 2025 NAM Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey.
 
What’s going on: In the most recent survey, conducted from Feb. 11 to Feb. 28, trade uncertainties moved to the top of the list of manufacturers’ concerns—with 76.2% of respondents citing them as their primary worry. Increased raw material costs came in second, cited by 62.3% of those surveyed.

• In fact, manufacturers expect prices on their companies’ product lines to go up by 3.6% in the next year, an increase from 2.3% in Q4 2024 and the highest since Q3 2022, when inflation was more than 8%.
• Manufacturers also anticipate the cost of raw materials and other inputs to rise 5.5% in the next year, the highest expected rate of increase since Q2 2022, when inflation was between 8% and 9%.
• Manufacturers foresee export sales to increase just 0.1% in the next year. That’s the lowest anticipated rise since Q2 2020 at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.
• In addition, the percentage of manufacturers with a positive outlook for their company inched down from the last quarter, to 69.7% from 70.9%.

Taxes: Manufacturers also feel strongly that their businesses need the “rocket fuel” of the tax reform extension. If Congress fails to extend pro-manufacturing provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017:

• 69.35% of respondents said they would delay capital equipment purchases;
• 45.23% would delay hiring;
• 44.72% would pause operations expansions;
• 41.71% would limit R&D investment; and
• 40.20% would curb employee wages or benefits increases.

Our take: “The pressure of increased costs, trade instability and sluggish demand is dampening the sector’s momentum, making it more difficult for manufacturers to plan, invest and hire,” NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons wrote in a social post Thursday.

• “We are calling for a comprehensive manufacturing strategy that includes a commonsense trade policy in addition to making President Trump’s 2017 tax reforms permanent and more competitive, securing regulatory certainty, expediting permitting reform to unleash American energy dominance and key manufacturing projects and increasing the talent pool.”