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A 15-day shipping stoppage at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach would cost the U.S. economy $7.5 billion and 41,000 jobs—nearly 15% of them from the manufacturing sector, according to a new NAM-commissioned study by Inforum Economics.

What’s happening: As negotiations between the Pacific Maritime Association and International Longshore and Warehouse Union continue, the July 1 deadline for the labor deal looms. Failure to achieve a new agreement by Friday will further damage an already challenged U.S. economic climate, according to NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons.

• “With supply chains already stretched thin, inflation at its highest level in four decades and concerns of a recession rising, any disruption would mean a devastating hit to our economy and to manufacturers’ competitiveness,” Timmons said.

Why it’s important: “The disruption would be felt immediately,” Timmons continued. “Manufacturing jobs will be lost if parts and supplies don’t arrive. New equipment, machinery and products can’t be built when ships are backed up and there is no one available to unload and process cargo. Our overseas customers won’t wait for us to fix these disruptions, either—they’ll simply find other suppliers, weakening U.S. manufacturing competitiveness in the process.”

Hear more: Listen to Timmons discuss the supply chain and U.S. competitiveness earlier this week on Bloomberg TV and Radio’s “Balance of Power.”