News & Insights

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.3 points in September to 91.5, marking the 33rd consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98. Meanwhile, the Uncertainty Index rose 11 points to 103, the highest reading ever recorded. This high level of uncertainty is making small business owners hesitant to invest in capital and inventory, with owners reporting the lowest level of capital outlays in September since July 2022 and inventory gains falling to the lowest reading since June 2020. Although price increases have slowed in recent months, inflation is the top concern for small business owners, with 23% identifying higher input and labor costs as their primary issue.

Filling job openings continues to be a top issue for small businesses and is acute particularly in manufacturing, transportation and construction. In September, 34% of small business owners reported jobs they could not fill.

A net 25% of small business owners plan price hikes in September. A net 32% of small business owners reported raising compensation, down one point from August and the lowest reading since April 2021. Following the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut, a net 12% of owners reported paying a higher rate on their most recent loan, down 3 points from August and the lowest reading since March 2022. Profitability remained under pressure, mainly due to weaker sales.

The service sector continues to be holding up, while manufacturing and housing remain weak. The outlook for general business conditions remains negative but is improved from earlier in the year, while the current economic conditions and business climate were the top reasons cited for why it is not a good time to expand.