News

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. fell 0.5% to 99.7 in September, following a 0.3% decline in August. Over the past six months (March to September 2024), the LEI has decreased 2.6%, which is worse than the 2.2% decline in the prior six months (September 2023 to March 2024). Weakness in new factory orders continued to be a significant drag on the index.

In addition, the yield curve remained inverted, building permits declined and consumers had a tepid outlook on future business conditions. Although the LEI signaled a recession is likely imminent or underway again in September, the index has been a poor predictor of recessions in the past few years. While it has been inaccurate in forecasting where the overall economy is going, the index includes several manufacturing-specific components that illustrate the recent weakness in the manufacturing sector.

Meanwhile, the Coincident Economic Index inched up 0.1% in September to 112.9 and rose 0.9% over the past six months. On the other hand, the Lagging Economic Index declined 0.3% in September to 118.9 and contracted 0.2% over the past six months.

Existing home sales dropped 1.0% in September and fell 3.5% from September 2023. Housing inventory rose to 1.39 million units, reflecting a 1.5% increase from August and a 23.0% boost from last year. The median existing home price was $404,500, up 3.0% from last year, with all four U.S. regions reporting price increases.

Single-family home sales edged down 0.6% from August, with the median price increasing 2.9% from September 2023 to $409,000. Condo and co-op sales dropped a more significant 5.1% in September and were down 14.0% from the previous year, with the median price up 2.2% from the prior year to $361,600.

Homes were typically on the market for 28 days in September, up from 26 days in August and 21 days in September 2023. First-time buyers made up 26% of sales, matching the all-time low from the previous month and down from 27% in September 2023. All-cash sales accounted for 30% of transactions in September, up from 26% in August. Meanwhile, investors or second-home buyers represented 16% of homes purchased in September, down from 19% in August. Distressed sales represented 2% of sales in September, just slightly above the rate of 1% the prior month.

The S&P Global Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI rose from 47.3 in September to 47.8 in October, signaling a deterioration in business conditions for the fourth consecutive month but at the slowest rate since August. The largest negative contribution to the PMI came from new orders, which fell for the fourth straight month but at a slower rate than the prior month.

Suppliers’ delivery times lengthened for the first time in three months, due to freight-related congestion and weather-related disruptions. Manufacturing input cost growth cooled to a seven-month low thanks to lower fuel prices, reduced buying and competition among suppliers. Inventories fell at the sharpest rate in 14 months. Production and employment also fell but at reduced rates from September. While business conditions improved slightly in October, future optimism in manufacturing hit a nine-month high.

Manufacturing activity in the Fifth District remained sluggish in October. The Fifth Federal Reserve District consists of Virginia, Maryland, the Carolinas, the District of Columbia and most of West Virginia. Although it remained negative, the composite manufacturing index improved from -21 in September to -14 in October. Among its components, shipments increased from -18 to -8, new orders rose from -23 to -17 and employment improved from -22 to -17. The vendor lead time index increased from -4 in September to 6 in October, and firms continued to report declining backlogs. Companies also grew slightly less pessimistic about local business conditions, but the index remained in negative territory. The average growth rate of prices paid decreased in October, while the rate of prices received increased slightly.

Expectations for future shipments and new orders both increased further into positive territory, suggesting that firms still anticipate improvement in these areas over the next six months. Expectations for backlogs improved and became positive. Meanwhile the outlook for future local business conditions improved dramatically, rising from -6 to 21. Firms continue to exhibit a more cautious approach to equipment and software spending, as expectations remained negative. Similarly, spending on capital expenditures declined further into negative territory. In sum, businesses in the Fifth District remain optimistic about consumer demand improving in the near future but remain cautious about their own expenditures.

Manufacturer sentiment fell in the third quarter of this year, according to the NAM’s Q3 2024 Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey, out Wednesday.

What’s going on: Results of the survey, which was conducted Sept. 5–20, reflect “preelection uncertainty,” NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons said—but also larger economic concerns.

• “The good news is that there is something we can do about it,” said Timmons. “We will work with lawmakers from both parties to halt the looming tax increases in 2025; address the risk of higher tariffs; restore balance to regulations; achieve permitting and energy security; and ease labor shortages and supply chain disruptions.”

Key findings: Notable data points from the survey include the following:

• Some 62.9% of respondents reported feeling either somewhat or very positive about their business’s outlook, a decline from 71.9% in Q2.
• A weaker domestic economy was the top business challenge for those surveyed, with 68.4% of respondents citing it.
• Nearly nine out of 10 manufacturers surveyed agreed that Congress should act before the end of 2025 to prevent scheduled tax increases on manufacturers.
• The overwhelming majority—92.3%—said the corporate tax rate should remain at or below 21%, with more than 71% saying a higher rate would have a negative impact on their businesses.
• More than 72% said they support congressional action to lower health care costs through the reform of pharmacy benefit managers.

The last word: “When policymakers take action to create a more competitive business climate for manufacturers, we can sustain America’s manufacturing resurgence—and strengthen our can-do spirit,” Timmons said.

• “This administration and Congress—and the next administration and Congress—should take this to heart, put aside politics, personality and process and focus on the right policies to strengthen the foundation of the American economy.”

In a politically divided time, the NAM set out to answer an important question: Can businesses build trust, brighten views about America’s creators and rekindle belief in the American Dream? The answer, tested over three-and-a-half days at the Circleville Pumpkin Show in Ohio: “Yes, they can—and we probably should,” said NAM Managing Vice President of Brand Strategy Chrys Kefalas.

Why it matters: Declining American pride is more than just a cultural shift—it’s a business problem. “When people lose faith in the American Dream, they lose faith in manufacturers and the business community’s ability to drive progress, leading to skepticism, division and fewer supporters of the environment that manufacturers and businesses need to succeed,” said Kefalas.

• This challenge comes at a pivotal moment: America’s 250th anniversary—its Semiquincentennial—arrives in 2026. This milestone offers a once-in-a-generation opportunity to reignite pride and belief in the country’s future.

What we built: With funding from Stand Together Trust, the NAM and its partners developed the Route 250 Diner, a pop-up experience that combined stories about community creators, snack giveaways, career resources and service opportunities. It brought together businesses, trade groups and civic organizations to see if they could elevate creators locally and nationally while inspiring civic pride and acts of service.

The results: Nearly 4,700 visitors of many ages and political affiliations pledged to undertake service opportunities and shared overwhelmingly positive feedback. Some even contributed cash to survey boxes as a gesture of gratitude. The concept clearly resonated.

• “We need more of this,” “Love this” and “I hope y’all be back” were frequent refrains among survey respondents. “I believe that how towns like Circleville go, so goes America,” said Circleville Mayor Michelle Blanton. “What resonates here can inspire communities across the country.”

Leading brands take part: The concept won early supporters like Snap-on, Johnson & Johnson and The J.M. Smucker Company, as well as growing enterprises like Seaman Corporation and Centrus Energy. The Honda–LG Energy Solution battery plant joint venture team participated on-site, highlighting the 2,200 job opportunities at the new plant in Fayette County, Ohio.

• The National Restaurant Association and the International Franchise Association, which represent two vital sectors of the American economy, joined the effort, as well as state business groups The Ohio Manufacturers’ Association and the Ohio Restaurant & Hospitality Alliance.

Support: The NAM set out to complement national and state efforts to celebrate America’s 250th anniversary and promote civic education. The concept enjoyed the participation of the congressionally chartered, nonpartisan U.S. Semiquincentennial Commission (America 250), state-chartered America 250-Ohio, the Bill of Rights Institute and the Edward M. Kennedy Institute. 

What they’re saying: Gov. Mike DeWine (R-OH) highlighted the initiative on social media, focusing on advancing participants’ career aspirations. “Empowered individuals and driving positive change in their communities are vital to America’s next 250 years,” said Stand Together Vice President Sarah Cross, stressing another key point of the activation.

• NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons: “By strengthening civic pride, inspiring acts of service and deepening our connections to our communities, we can ensure that manufacturers and enterprises across the nation shape a brighter future for America.”
• America250 Chair Rosie Rios: “The Route 250 Initiative is an important celebration of America’s creators and makers who play a vital role in strengthening our communities through meaningful acts of service as we approach America’s 250th anniversary in 2026.”
• National Restaurant Association President and CEO Michelle Korsmo: “The Route 250 Initiative reminds us that in every community, there are people creating opportunities for themselves and others—and that’s something worth celebrating as we help more people learn how to make America’s next 250 years better than our first.”
• Bill of Rights Institute President and CEO David Bobb: “By engaging in meaningful, constructive dialogue and celebrating the individuals who by their hands, hearts and minds are creating a better future, we can inspire a renewed commitment to those enduring ideals.”
• America 250-Ohio Executive Director Todd Kleismit: “By sharing stories of creators and community heroes and inviting us all to learn what we’re doing to serve our community, we’re not just celebrating the past—we’re inviting people to see themselves in America’s future.”
• The Ohio Manufacturers’ Association President Ryan Augsburger: “As we look ahead to America’s 250th anniversary, Ohio manufacturers will continue to lead the way. This diner and the Route 250 Initiative give us the chance to reflect on our past while also inspiring the next generation to shape the future—one innovation, one community, one creator at a time.”
• Ohio Restaurant & Hospitality Alliance Managing Director of External Affairs and Government Relations Tod Bowen: “As we look ahead to America’s 250th anniversary in 2026, we’re reminded of the importance of spaces like this. The diner invites us all to reflect on how we’re contributing to our communities and how, by coming together, we can make the next 250 years even better.”

The big takeaway: “At the heart of this proof of concept is a message: manufacturers, creators and communities all play essential roles in writing the next chapter of America’s story,” said Timmons. “This is a model, showing how civic pride, community service and the power of industry can renew belief in the American Dream.”

• “Some argue that no single narrative can unite the American people, but the Route 250 Diner and manufacturing’s story in America prove otherwise,” Kefalas added. “The question isn’t if we can find a unifying narrative—it’s who will step up to lead it, and that’s why we tried to show the way forward.”

What’s next: The NAM will evaluate the full results of the proof of concept with its partners and other key stakeholders, continuing to look for ways of using America’s 250th anniversary to strengthen the industry and the country.

In the news: POLITICO Influence covered the launch announcement, and The Scioto Post of Pickaway County, Ohio, previewed the experience.

More: Watch highlights of the grand opening event.

Building permits fell 2.9% in September and are 5.7% lower than September 2023. Permits for single-family homes were 0.3% higher than August but were down 1.2% in the past year. Permits for buildings with five or more units plummeted 10.8% from August and are down a significant 17.4% in the past year.

In September, housing starts decreased 0.5% over the month and 0.7% over the year. On the other hand, starts for single-family homes were up 2.7% from August and 5.5% from September 2023. Meanwhile, starts for buildings with five or more units declined 4.5% from August and were down a dramatic 15.7% from September 2023.

Housing completions in September were down 5.7% from August but up a significant 14.6% from September 2023. Single-family home completions were down 2.7% from August to 1 million but up 1.6% over the year. Completions for buildings with five or more units dropped 8.7% over the month but were 41.9% higher than September 2023.

U.S. import prices declined 0.4% in September, following a 0.2% decrease in August. This is the largest one-month drop since a 0.7% decline in December 2023. Over the past year, import prices have edged down slightly (down 0.1%). U.S. export prices fell 0.7% in September, extending the 0.9% decline in August. While nonagricultural export prices contributed to the decrease (down 0.9%), agricultural export prices rose 0.6%. Over the past year, export prices fell 2.1%.

Fuel import prices decreased 7.0% in September, after declining 2.9% in August. Over the past year, fuel import prices have fallen 17.3%, the largest 12-month drop since August 2023. While petroleum prices declined a significant 16.7% over the year in September, natural gas prices fell an even more dramatic 57.4%.

Nonfuel import prices ticked up 0.1% for the third straight month in September. Higher prices for nonfuel industrial supplies and materials, consumer goods and automotive vehicles in September more than offset lower prices for foods, feeds and beverages.

After declining 2.1% in August, agricultural export prices advanced 0.6% in September. Over the past 12 months, agricultural export prices dropped 5.3%. On the other hand, nonagricultural export prices decreased 0.9% in September, with lower prices for nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials and automotive vehicles more than offsetting higher prices for capital goods, consumer goods and nonagricultural foods. Over the past year, nonagricultural export prices fell 1.8%, the largest annual decrease since December 2023.

In October, Philadelphia’s regional manufacturing activity expanded overall. The index for current general business activity rose from 1.7 to 10.3. More than 24% of firms reported increased activity this month, while 14% reported decreases and nearly 57% reported no change. The indexes for new orders and shipments also increased and turned positive. On the other hand, firms reported a decrease in employment after rising last month, with the employment index falling back into negative territory at -2.2.

Both price indexes edged down but continue to indicate overall increases in prices. The prices paid index declined from 34.0 to 29.7 but remains at an elevated level that reflects the notable portion of firms experiencing higher input costs. The prices received index also fell and remained significantly lower than the prices paid index at 17.9, exhibiting how manufacturers are eating a portion of those higher costs paid.

Looking ahead, most future indicators increased. The index for future general business activity rose markedly to 36.7, indicating growing optimism among firms. A higher proportion of firms still expected increases in activity. Additionally, the new orders, shipments and future employment indexes also rose. On another positive note, the future prices paid index decreased, while the future prices received increased. On the other hand, the future capital expenditures index moved down slightly.

Manufacturing activity in New York state retreated in October after rising in September, with the headline general business conditions index falling 23.4 points to -11. The new orders index dropped 19.6 points to -10.2, after climbing to a multiyear high last month, while the shipments index fell 20.6 points to -2.7, exhibiting a decline in both orders and shipments. Unfilled orders edged down to a slightly negative reading of -2.2, while inventories shrank from 0 to -7.5, indicating inventories are in decline again. Delivery times were somewhat shorter, while supply availability deteriorated slightly.

Despite the decline in business activity, employment increased, with the index for the number of employees rising 9.8 points to 4.1. The average employee workweek also improved some, signaling a slight increase in hours worked. Input and selling price increases remained modest, as reflected in the prices paid index rising 5.8 points to 29.0 and the prices received index moving up 3.4 points to 10.8. Since prices paid continue to increase at a faster pace than prices received, manufacturers still face rising costs while operating in a weakened pricing environment.

Despite weak business conditions in October, firms felt much more optimistic about the future. The future business activity index rose 8.1 points to 38.7, a multiyear high, with nearly 55% of respondents expecting conditions to improve over the next six months. The capital spending index also reversed its losses from September, rising to 9.7 in October.