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In September, the U.S. manufacturing sector contracted for the sixth consecutive month, with the Manufacturing PMI matching the figure in August at 47.2%. New orders (46.1%), production (49.8%) and backlog of orders (44.1%) remained in contraction, but at a slower rate of decline. Inventories dropped significantly from a rate of growth (50.3%) to contraction (43.9%), and supplier deliveries are still slowing. Demand continued to be weak, with companies hesitant to invest due to federal monetary policy and election uncertainty.

The New Orders Index continued its contraction for the sixth consecutive month but is up 1.5 percentage points from August. This decline reflects ongoing uncertainty and concern about a lack of new order activity, with only two major sectors, computer and electronic products and food, beverage and tobacco products, reporting an increase in new orders. Their confidence in the future economic environment remains at its lowest levels since the COVID-19 pandemic recovery.

The Production Index remained in contraction in September but is up 5.0 percentage points from August. Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, three (computer and electronic products; food, beverage and tobacco products; and fabricated metal products) reported increased production.

The Employment Index fell 2.1 percentage points from August, among the lowest readings since July 2020. Companies continued to reduce headcounts through layoffs, attrition and hiring freezes, with only the food, beverage and tobacco products and machinery sectors expanding employment in September.

The Prices Index dropped 5.7 percentage points to 48.3%, indicating raw materials prices decreased in September after eight straight months of increases. Key commodity prices were less volatile, with petroleum-derived products showing weakness, aluminum indicating slowing growth, corrugate and ocean freight continuing growth and steel and steel products prices easing. Approximately 13% of companies reported paying higher prices, compared to 21% in August.

In August, the number of job openings rose to 8.0 million, an increase of 329,000 from the previous month but a decrease of 1,318,000 from the previous year. The job openings rate increased to 4.8%, up from 4.6% in July but down from 5.6% last year.

Job openings for manufacturing edged up slightly by 1,000 to 506,000 in August, with the increase of 12,000 job openings in nondurable goods making up for the decrease of 11,000 in durable goods. The manufacturing job openings rate stayed consistent at 3.8% from last month. The rate for durable goods manufacturing dropped from 4.0% to 3.9%, while it rose from 3.3% to 3.5% for nondurable goods.

The number of hires fell to 5.3 million from 5.4 million in August and are down 571,000 from the previous year. The hires rate dipped 0.1% to 3.3%. The hires rate for manufacturing declined 0.3% to 2.4%. The hires rate for durable and nondurable goods dropped to 2.2% and 2.7%, respectively.

Total separations, including quits, layoffs, discharges and other separations, fell 317,000 from July to right under 5.0 million and are down 612,000 from the previous year. The total separations rate declined to 3.1% and to 2.5% for manufacturing. The quit and layoff rates continue to remain lower for manufacturing than the total nonfarm sector.

Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 254,000 in September, blowing past the consensus estimate of 150,000 job gains. July and August job gains were also revised upward by 72,000 jobs. The 12-month average stands at 203,000 job gains per month. Manufacturing employment, however, declined by 7,000, largely influenced by a 6,500 decrease in motor vehicles and parts. In addition, August’s 24,000 manufacturing job loss was revised down to 27,000. The unemployment rate dipped 0.1 percentage point to 4.1%, while the labor force participation rate remained unchanged at 62.7%.

The employment-population ratio ticked up slightly to 60.2%, though it’s down 0.2 percentage points from a year ago. Employed persons who are part-time workers for economic reasons decreased by 206,000 to 4.6 million but are up from 4.1 million in September 2023. Native born employment is up over the month but down 825,000 over the year. Meanwhile, foreign born employment is up 1,201,000 over the year.

Average hourly earnings for all private nonfarm payroll employees rose 0.4%, or 13 cents, reaching $35.36. Over the past year, earnings have grown 4.0%. The average workweek for all employees edged down by 0.1 hour to 34.2 hours in September.

After days of disruption, and sustained advocacy by the NAM to keep manufacturers’ concerns at the forefront, the East Coast and Gulf Coast ports strike has ended, allowing for the resumption of normal operations crucial to manufacturers and the broader supply chain.

Background on the strike: The strike, which began earlier this week, had halted operations at key shipping terminals stretching from Boston to Houston, exacerbating the backlog at some of the busiest ports in the U.S. (Reuters , subscription). NAM data on the effects of a prolonged strike—including a hit to the U.S. GDP by as much as $5 billion a day—was cited widely by supporters of a compromise that would keep ports open as negotiations continued.

• The tentative agreement is for a wage hike of around 62% over six years, Reuters reports, with the current Master Contract extending until January to allow for ports to remain open as a final contract is negotiated.

Impacts on manufacturing: NAM members voiced deep concerns over shipment delays and the effects on production timelines. The strike impacted everything from raw materials to finished goods, underscoring the interconnectedness of the global supply chain and domestic manufacturing.

• “Manufacturers are encouraged that cooler heads have prevailed and the ports will reopen,” NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons said in a statement . “This decision avoids the need for government intervention and invoking the Taft-Hartley Act, and it is a victory for all parties involved—preserving jobs, safeguarding supply chains and preventing further economic disruptions.”

Resolution and next steps: The resolution came after intense negotiations facilitated by federal mediators, with both parties agreeing to resume operations while finalizing contract details. The NAM will monitor developments and remain engaged with policymakers to support stable labor conditions at key ports.

“Manufacturers depend on the stability of our ports to continue building, innovating, delivering products to American families and supporting communities across the country,” Timmons continued. “Another strike would jeopardize $2.1 billion in trade daily… We cannot afford that level of economic destruction.”

As part of its “Manufacturing Wins” tax campaign, the NAM’s small and medium-sized manufacturers are drawing lawmakers’ attention to R&D amortization, an uncompetitive tax policy that’s killing jobs and dragging down the world’s most innovative economy.

The problem: “Allowing companies like Sukup Manufacturing to immediately expense R&D investments had been part of the tax code for more than 70 years,” explained Steve Sukup, president and CEO of the Sheffield, Iowa–based company. “But since 2022, we have had to amortize our R&D expenses over five years.”

• “This affects manufacturers everywhere and has a dramatic impact on the U.S. economy, as the private sector accounts for more than 75% of total R&D spending—with small businesses accounting for approximately $90 billion of all private-sector R&D investments.”
• Another heavily impacted manufacturer is Husco of Waukesha, Wisconsin. “In 2024, we have $20 million less liquidity than we would have under the old R&D expensing rules,” said Husco President and CEO Austin Ramirez. “That $20 million represents almost our entire capital budget for 2024.”

Threatening jobs: “Limiting R&D doesn’t just limit innovation—it also has a direct impact on people’s jobs here,” said Tom Tredway, president of Erie Molded Packaging in Pennsylvania. “And these are quality, high-paying jobs—but they are at risk if immediate R&D expensing isn’t restored.”

• “Bringing a new medical device to market is a multiyear process, necessitating significant investments in R&D,” explained Chuck Wetherington, president of BTE Technologies in Hanover, Maryland. “Being required to amortize our R&D expenses has forced us to staff our technical team at a reduced level, slowing down the development of new products.”

Handing a win to China: “China allows a ‘super deduction’ for manufacturing R&D equal to 200% of research costs. That is what we are up against,” said Lisa Winton, who co-founded Winton Machine Company in Suwanee, Georgia. “Meanwhile, Belgium is the only other developed nation with an amortization requirement like the United States.”

• “When you look at the generosity of foreign support, especially China’s, versus the United States, it’s so lopsided,” said Daryl Bouwkamp, who serves as Vermeer Corporation’s senior director of international business development and government affairs. “China is trying to drive behavior toward R&D—and that’s something we’re lacking.”
• “Suddenly, China started manufacturing bagel baskets and shipping them to New York City for cheaper than I could get the steel,” recalled Drew Greenblatt, president and owner of Marlin Steel Wire Products. “We realized we couldn’t thrive in a commodities market. … We [need] to be able to say to buyers, ‘You must buy from the American innovative company because we’re coming up with such slick ideas that our product blows the competition away.’”

Innovation at risk: “[Now is the time] we most need to make investments in innovation, both around the technologies that we provide in our products enabling the United States’ economic growth and success [and] the technologies we use to produce the products that we make,” said Karl Hutter, CEO of Click Bond in Carson City, Nevada.

• Patricia Miller of M4 Factory in Woodstock, Illinois, highlighted that manufacturers are key to meeting the world’s most intractable challenges: “We need to keep those [companies] that are driving the future of innovation and manufacturing in the U.S. economically viable and competitive.”

The last word: “Congress not allowing manufacturers to immediately expense R&D expenses directly translates to fewer quality jobs in the manufacturing sector while our foreign competitors are implementing vastly more beneficial R&D benefits,” Tredway concluded.

Within days of Hurricane Helene’s landfall, manufacturers were reaching out to help those who had been affected.

What’s going on: Companies from an array of industries are volunteering their resources, time and energy to getting storm victims essential items. Helene, which made landfall in Florida last Thursday, has killed at least 189 people and left more than 1.2 million customers without power (ABC News).

• Toyota is matching donation contributions made by its U.S.-based employees to the American Red Cross, disaster relief organization SBP and other nonprofits. The auto manufacturer is also offering payment relief options to those affected.
• Norfolk Southern Corp. has donated $100,000 to the American Red Cross, which is undertaking relief work across multiple states, including North Carolina, Florida, Georgia and Tennessee. The company’s Employee Disaster Relief Program is also giving employees affected by the storm grants for qualified expenses and losses.
• DENSO North America Foundation, the philanthropic group of global automotive components manufacturer DENSO, is donating $200,000 to the American Red Cross in support of disaster relief across southeastern states.
• Procter & Gamble’s Disaster Relief is partnering with Walmart and Matthew 25: Ministries, an international aid organization, in their recovery efforts in the hard-hit Florida cities of Perry and St. Petersburg. P&G resources will go toward a Tide Loads of Hope Mobile Laundry Unit, powered by Matthew 25: Ministries, to offer free, full-service laundry to responders and affected residents. Shower trailers with hot water will also be provided.

Additional resources: SBP and Good360 offer manufacturers disaster preparedness resources and training when natural disasters hit.

• “Hurricane Helene has been devastating, leaving many without access to power and vital resources,” NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons wrote in a social post Wednesday. “Manufacturers looking for recovery resources or looking to provide supplies can connect with SBP via sbpusa.org and Good360 via good360.org.”

Share your stories: Are you helping those affected by Helene? Tell us how by emailing [email protected].

The NAM recently talked to Sen. Todd Young (R-IN) about the importance of reinstating immediate expensing for research-and-development expenditures. Here’s the full interview:

NAM: Sen. Young, Congress is facing a “Tax Armageddon” next year, as crucial provisions from 2017’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act are set to expire. As a member of the Senate Finance Committee, what is your focus moving into next year’s debate?

Sen. Young: The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was a great success—millions of Americans, especially those in the middle class—saw their taxes go down. Corporate tax receipts went up. We stemmed the tide of corporate inversions, and many companies chose to return their operations and tax bases to the United States. If Congress does not act next year to extend provisions of the TCJA, we will undo all of these victories and inflict long-lasting damage on our economy. As we prepare for next year, I am focused on evaluating how best we can build upon our TCJA successes and continue to adopt pro-growth, fiscally responsible tax policy that helps hardworking Americans thrive.

NAM: As you know, for nearly 70 years, manufacturers in the U.S. were able to fully deduct their R&D expenses in the year incurred. Beginning in 2022, however, manufacturers were forced to spread their deductions over several years, greatly harming our ability to grow and compete. What is Congress doing to restore immediate R&D expensing?

Sen. Young: For several years now, I have advocated for the American Innovation and Jobs Act (S. 866), my bill with Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) that would restore full and immediate expensing of R&D expenditures. We first introduced the bill back in 2020 well before the provision expired, and I am disappointed that we are now reaching the end of 2024—nearly three years after the law shifted to amortization of R&D investments—and Congress has yet to pass our bill to fix this crucial issue. As our global competitors, like China, are expanding their R&D incentives, we simply cannot allow our nation and our economy to be left behind. Congress must work to restore our R&D incentives as soon as possible, and this will be one of my top priorities heading into next year’s tax negotiations.

NAM: As a senator who was there during the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, you know how impactful the legislation was for manufacturers to be able to compete on a global level. As we get closer to next year, what are you hearing from stakeholders on the need for pro-growth tax policy so American businesses can engage and grow around the world?

Sen. Young: At the risk of oversimplifying the issue, it really comes down to competitiveness. A lot of the work I have done in the tax space as well as in other areas is focused on ensuring that America’s position as a global leader remains strong. Without growth, our economy suffers and our ability to remain internationally competitive is diminished. This is a massive national security risk. So, as I look ahead to what next year may hold in the tax arena, I am focused on pro-growth tax policy. We need to be thinking creatively about ways we can add value to our economy and, in turn, ensure Americans are better off.

In different industries this takes on different forms; however, one common thread is the need for R&D. To grow and develop new products, businesses have to put significant amounts of capital into R&D costs, both domestically and internationally. That is why one of my core areas of focus continues to be restoring full and immediate expensing of R&D costs. It is vital for the health of our economy that we take this action, which allows safer and more innovative products to be brought to the marketplace; increases the number of [well]-paying, high-skilled jobs; and secures U.S. interests abroad by ensuring we remain globally competitive.

NAM: Thank you, Sen. Young. What else can NAM members do to stay engaged and be a resource for you going into next year?

Sen. Young: I have always appreciated the NAM’s partnership and advocacy as we work together on these important issues. I would encourage NAM members to continue sharing stories with their elected federal officials of the importance of these tax incentives, like R&D, that enable the creation of high-quality jobs, promote our national competitiveness and strengthen our economy. Your voice matters.

The NAM recently talked to Rep. Ron Estes (R-KA), chair of the U.S. Innovation Tax Team, to learn what he and his colleagues are doing to fight for the return of immediate research-and-development expensing. Here’s the full interview:

NAM: Rep. Estes, Congress is facing a “Tax Armageddon” next year, as crucial provisions from 2017’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act are set to expire. As a member of the Ways and Means Committee, what is your focus moving into next year’s debate?

Rep. Estes: The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act did so much to encourage economic growth and make the United States competitive globally. Today, about half of the members serving in Congress weren’t in office in 2017 when we passed this landmark legislation, so there’s a lot of educating that’s been happening, not just for the general public but for our members as well. Ways and Means Republicans are taking this opportunity to examine what worked and ways to improve and expand the legislation. Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO) established 10 tax teams to address various parts of the bill, and I’ve been leading the U.S Innovation Tax Team.

NAM: As you well know, for nearly 70 years, manufacturers in the U.S. were able to fully deduct their R&D expenses in the year incurred. Beginning in 2022, however, manufacturers were forced to spread their deductions over several years, greatly harming our ability to grow and compete. What is Congress doing to restore immediate R&D expensing?

Rep. Estes: I’ve introduced legislation—the American Innovation and R&D Competitiveness Act—to address this issue. It’s bipartisan legislation that is supported by 220 colleagues, nearly evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats. Those provisions were also included in the House-passed Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act, which would have been a welcome fix. However, election-year politics has stalled that bill in the Senate. But manufacturers and innovators need action on immediate R&D expensing now, and it’s something the Senate should still address before the next Congress begins in January.

NAM: Your U.S. Innovation Tax Team has been very busy this year, as you’ve held several roundtables and been receiving feedback focused on the importance of U.S. manufacturers having a chance to compete around the globe. As we get closer to next year, what is your tax team hearing from stakeholders on the need for American businesses to engage and grow around the world?

Rep. Estes: The U.S. Innovation Tax Team has hosted roundtables and listening sessions with innovators and manufacturers across the country. Their message has been consistent and clear: we need a stable tax code that encourages innovation through R&D immediate expensing, continues good policies like FDII [the foreign-derived intangible income deduction] and discourages foreign extraterritorial taxes that are out to pilfer from American innovators. A manufacturer in rural Kansas told me about how the change in immediate R&D expensing has changed their plans for expansion. This is a major employer in a small town, so the impact isn’t just about the business, but it’s also about the jobs that are impacted when R&D is stifled. At the same time, China is offering a 200% super deduction and is working to expand R&D in their country. We can’t cede our dominance in manufacturing, research and development.

NAM: Thank you, congressman. What else can NAM members do to stay engaged and be a resource for you going into next year?

Rep. Estes: The best thing for NAM members to do is to continue talking about the benefits of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and the importance of R&D expensing for manufacturers and workers. Unfortunately, there’s a lot of misinformation about the impact of the 2017 tax law, but even the New York Times admitted in 2019 that the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act benefitted most Americans, saying in their headline, “Face It: You (Probably) Got a Tax Cut,” and going on to say, “Studies consistently find that the 2017 law cut taxes for most Americans. Most of them don’t buy it.” Americans, small businesses, innovators and manufacturers need us to extend and expand the 2017 tax law to encourage the kind of economic growth we experienced just several years ago.

For more than two years, manufacturers have not been able to immediately deduct their R&D expenses—and it’s taken a toll, particularly on small businesses.

What’s going on: For more than 70 years, the U.S. tax code allowed manufacturers to immediately deduct their R&D expenditures. But since the expiration of this key provision in 2022, manufacturers have been required to amortize their R&D costs over a period of years.

Why it’s important: As a direct result of the expiration, manufacturers’ tax bills have increased, according to a new NAM tax explainer released as part of the NAM’s “Manufacturing Wins ” campaign. This means manufacturers are now less able to conduct groundbreaking research and support well-paying R&D jobs.

Uneven playing field: The U.S. is now one of just two developed nations that requires the amortization of R&D expenses.

• The policy makes the U.S. less competitive against China, which offers companies a 200% “super deduction” for R&D costs.
• In 2022, the first full year after the expiration of immediate R&D expensing, the European Union’s R&D growth surpassed that of the U.S. for the first time in nearly a decade—and China’s R&D growth was triple that of the U.S.

What should be done: The NAM is calling on Congress to restore immediate R&D expensing, along with other pro-growth tax provisions.

The last word: “It is imperative that the U.S. tax code support job-creating, life-changing R&D,” said NAM Vice President of Domestic Policy Charles Crain. “Congress must act to bolster manufacturing innovation and American competitiveness by reinstating immediate R&D expensing.”

Consumer confidence fell dramatically in September to 98.7 from 105.6 in August. September’s decline was the largest since August 2021, with all five components of the index deteriorating.

The Present Situation Index, reflecting current business and labor market conditions, dropped 10.3 points to 124.3. The Expectations Index, which reflects consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, declined 4.6 points to 81.7, slightly above the recession signal threshold of 80. Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions turned negative, with only 18.8% of consumers saying business conditions were “good,” while views of the current labor market situation softened further. Consumers also felt more pessimistic about future labor market conditions, with more consumers anticipating fewer jobs to be available than more. Consumers also felt less positive about future business conditions and future income.

Consumers’ views of their current financial situation weakened further, with 18.0% anticipating income growth, down from 18.6% in August. Despite slower overall price increases, inflation expectations increased to 5.2% in September, but expectations for higher interest rates continued to decline. Buying plans for homes and new cars improved slightly, while purchase plans for big-ticket appliances were mixed. Despite the largely negative responses, concerns about a recession remained stable and low.