News

The U.S. economy added 911,000 fewer nonfarm jobs and 95,000 fewer manufacturing jobs than previously reported in the 12 months ending in March 2025, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced today (BLS).

• This report is the preliminary benchmark revision of the BLS establishment survey, which the agency performs every year; the final revision will be issued in February.

What it means: The revision indicates that the BLS survey greatly overstated job gains last year. In the period between April 2024 and March 2025, 1.76 million new jobs were reported, but only 847,000 jobs were created, averaging 70,580 job gains per month.

• For context, last year’s preliminary benchmark report revised the jobs numbers down by 818,000 for all nonfarm employment and 115,000 for manufacturing.

The bigger picture: “Although a revision of this size is not unprecedented when measuring as a percent of the first estimate, it is incredibly large,” said NAM Chief Economist Victoria Bloom. Here are some important facts for more context:

• The BLS’s Birth-Death model “is due for improvements,” Bloom said.

• It has been misestimating business closures and openings since the pandemic, for example, and more recently has begun overestimating payroll growth. Meanwhile, the BLS has had an increasingly hard time with administering the surveys, grappling with such problems as a drop in response rates.

• Furthermore, misestimations tend to be more dramatic during shifts in the business cycle, since it is harder for the BLS to accurately estimate business growth during recessions and the subsequent recoveries. Nonetheless, revisions, on average, are smaller than they were decades ago.

• “We should anticipate recent employment estimates to also be revised down in the future,” Bloom predicted.

 The conclusion: “Although it was already apparent that there was weakness in the labor market in the third quarter of last year, leading the Federal Reserve to cut their interest rate target by 100 basis points in the second half of 2024, this revision shows that weakness was more significant,” Bloom said.

• “The [Federal Open Market Committee] was already expected to cut their interest rate target by 25 basis points next week, and I anticipate that will remain true.”

The STEP Ahead Awards are back—and nominations are now open.

What’s going on: The Manufacturing Institute’s annual awards and gala are returning to its original name, STEP Ahead, recognizing standout women and allies in manufacturing. The MI is the NAM’s 501(c)3 workforce development and education affiliate.

• “By returning to the STEP Ahead name, we’re honoring the program’s history while expanding our mission to include both women and allies whose leadership bolsters our industry and shapes its future,” said STEP Ahead National Director Lexi Champion.

Who they’re looking for: Until Oct. 10, the MI is accepting the names and details of exceptional manufacturing leaders for nomination for the 2026 STEP Ahead Awards.

• Nominees and winners in past years have included manufacturing professionals who volunteer extensively in their communities, those who have started mentorship programs at their employer companies and individuals who have launched product lines.
• In short, the MI is seeking manufacturing professionals who “constantly exceed expectations making an impact in their companies and in their communities,” said MI President and Executive Director Carolyn Lee.
• Awardees will be announced publicly in March and then celebrated at the awards gala in Washington, D.C., in April. Prior to the gala, awardees will participate in a two-day leadership conference in Washington, D.C., focused on peer learning, leadership development and inspiration.

Why it’s important: Manufacturing needs skilled talent—and the awards help “elevate proven role models whose leadership inspires others and helps attract and retain the talent our industry needs to thrive,” Champion said.

The details: To learn who’s eligible for nomination, how nominees are scored and selected and to see winning writing samples from past entrants, review the 2026 Nomination Guide and submit your nomination today.

Still need a hand? Join the MI for its webinar, Strategies for Successful Nominations, this Wednesday, Sept. 10, from 11:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. EDT. Register here.

The Trump administration announced that it will take a crucial step for simplifying the permitting process and unleashing new construction—including of data centers supporting the AI boom (Daily Caller).

• The NAM has led the manufacturing industry’s efforts to streamline permitting, working closely with the administration on dozens of key policy moves.

What’s going on: “The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced its intent to revise the definition of ‘begin actual construction’ for New Source Review (NSR) preconstruction permitting so that companies can build or update non-emitting sections of power plants and industrial facilities before obtaining a Clean Air Act (CAA) construction permit.”

• “The shift would allow companies to get much-needed power on the grid sooner while still safeguarding the environment, several industry insiders told the Daily Caller News Foundation.”
• NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons told the DCNF, “[c]hampioning the needs of manufacturers, the EPA’s new guidance on New Source Review brings speed and certainty to a vital preconstruction permitting process.”

What they’re saying: “For years, Clean Air Act permitting has been an obstacle to innovation and growth,” EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin said Tuesday.

• “We are continuing to fix this broken system. Today’s guidance is another step to allow the build-out of essential power generation, data centers and manufacturing projects that will bring about America’s Golden Age.”

NAM advocacy:  In December , manufacturers laid out recommendations to the presidential transition team to speed up the nation’s permitting process, including reforms to NSR.

• In April, manufacturers reiterated the need to abandon the previous administration’s NSR proposal and instead adopt a practical, commonsense approach.

The NAM’s response: “ Today, the EPA is delivering by making the permitting process more prompt, clear and responsible—keeping air quality safe while cutting excessive red tape,” said NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons in a statement issued today.

• “By doing so, the EPA will fast-track construction of essential power generation, data centers and manufacturing facilities, and that means more jobs, investments and opportunities for manufacturers in the U.S. and the communities we serve.”
• “Delivering on what manufacturers have asked for, this guidance will drive infrastructure development by streamlining permitting reform for all energy sources so we can unleash American energy dominance.”
• In a win for manufacturers, Timmons continued, “[we] thank President Trump and EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin for their leadership to advance commonsense reforms that strengthen manufacturing in America, enhance our competitiveness and allow us to lead the world in innovation.”

On Friday night, President Trump issued an executive order that amends the list of products exempted from International Emergency Economic Powers Act reciprocal tariffs. In effect, this EO significantly changes the procedures for updates to IEEPA reciprocal tariffs and Section 232 tariffs. These changes went into effect on Monday.

Changes to April 2 EO: This EO amends Annex II of the April 2 IEEPA reciprocal tariff EO. It contained a list of Harmonized Tariff Schedule codes that are exempt from IEEPA reciprocal tariffs but contained many items likely to become subject to Section 232 tariffs as they were part of the scope of pending investigations.

• Exemptions added: Forty HTS codes have been added to Annex II, exempting them from the IEEPA reciprocal tariffs. They include certain critical minerals such as nickel, tin and thorium ores, chemicals, permanent magnets and LEDs.
• Exemptions taken away: Eight HTS codes have been removed from Annex II, making them newly subject to the IEEPA reciprocal tariffs. They include certain aluminum hydroxide, crystals, resins, PET and silicones.

Zero-for-zero: The NAM has long advocated for the administration to negotiate new market access for U.S. industrial exports on a reciprocal basis.

• Friday’s EO establishes a new “Potential Tariff Adjustments for Aligned Partners” Annex.
• The PTAAP Annex lists products for which the president “may be willing to provide a zero percent reciprocal tariff” to countries that have concluded final “Framework Agreements” with the United States.

Potential reductions: While the EO does not implement tariff reductions, it does provide guidelines for eligibility.

• Products eligible for tariff reductions include those that cannot be grown, mined or naturally produced in the United States or grown, mined or naturally produced in sufficient quantities in the United States to satisfy domestic demand.
• Also eligible are certain agricultural products, aircraft and aircraft parts and non-patented articles for use in pharmaceutical applications.

Getting to zero: The president stipulates that “except in rare circumstances” trading partners won’t get a zero tariff or a 232 tariff preference “before the conclusion of a final trade and security agreement (‘final agreement’) with the U.S.”

• However, the EO goes on to refer to the EU Framework Agreement as sufficient to modify U.S. tariffs.
• The EO states that “the imports that might receive a reciprocal tariff rate of zero percent may be different for each final agreement between a foreign trading partner and the United States.”
• Importantly, the zero-duty treatment can apply to both IEEPA reciprocal tariffs and to Section 232 national security tariffs.​​​​​​​

New orders for manufactured goods declined 1.3% in July, following a 4.8% drop in June. On the other hand, new orders for manufactured goods grew 3.5% over the year. When excluding transportation, new orders inched up 0.6% over the month and 0.7% year-over-year in July. Orders for durable goods decreased 2.8%, following a 9.4% dive in June. Year to date, durable goods orders are up 7.3%. Nondurable goods orders ticked up 0.3% in July after rising 0.4% in June. Nondurable goods orders are down 0.1% over the year.

New orders for nondefense aircraft and parts, which have been incredibly volatile in recent months, led the decrease in durable goods orders, plunging 32.7%, following June’s 52.7% plummet. In July, the largest monthly increase occurred in defense aircraft and parts, which jumped 10.2%, after rising 4.3% the prior month. The largest over-the-year changes also occurred in nondefense aircraft and parts (up 139.2%) and mining, oil field and gas field machinery (down 8.3%).

Factory shipments increased 0.9% in July, after rising 0.6% in June. Shipments over the year rose 1.2%. Shipments excluding transportation advanced 0.6% in July, following a 0.5% gain the previous month. Shipments for durable goods improved 1.5% in July, following a 0.7% increase in June, and are up 2.5% year to date. Meanwhile, nondurable goods shipments ticked up 0.3% after rising 0.4% the prior month but are down 0.1% year to date.

Unfilled orders for all manufacturing industries stayed the same in July, after increasing 0.9% in June. Unfilled orders over the year jumped 7.1%. Inventories grew 0.3%, after inching up 0.2% the prior month. Inventories increased 1.5% year-over-year. The inventories-to-shipments ratio edged down to 1.56 from 1.57 in June. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio for durable goods decreased to 6.87 from 7.01 in June.

The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI was 53.0 in August, up considerably from the July reading of 49.8 and the highest reading since May 2022. New orders increased for the eighth consecutive month primarily as a result of domestic sales, with international sales declining slightly. Tariffs led to steep rises in both input and output costs in August, with input cost inflation accelerating at the steepest pace in the past three years, apart from June.

Amid worries over rising prices and supply constraints due to tariffs, finished stocks of goods rose to the greatest extent in more than a year. Meanwhile, stronger sales and a buildup of inventories resulted in production growth surging from July at the fastest pace in 13 months. Average lead times improved slightly in August, with delivery times shortening despite the influx of new orders.

Although tariffs continued to weigh on business confidence, firms are more hopeful than in July, with an anticipation that demand will improve in the year ahead. As manufacturers faced new orders and completed some existing orders in August, firms increased employment levels, also buoyed by optimism regarding future production. Nonetheless, capacity remained under pressure, resulting in backlogs of work rising in August at the steepest pace since September 2022.

In August, global manufacturing activity grew at the fastest pace since June 2024, rising from 49.7 to 50.9. Output and new orders also returned to growth in August after contracting in July. New export orders continued to decline but at a slower pace than the prior month. August’s recovery is challenging the prediction of a stall in global manufacturing activity in the second half of the year. On the other hand, forward-looking indicators are more downbeat, and the surge in finished goods inventory suggests the rebound could be due largely to stockpiling rather than an improvement in demand.

India, Colombia, Greece and Spain had the highest PMI readings in August. On the other hand, the U.K., Brazil and Canada were some of the larger nations to register declines in activity. The upturn in manufacturing output occurred across the consumer, intermediate goods and investment goods categories.

Additionally, manufacturing employment rose in August after declining for 14 consecutive months. However, staffing level increase was minimal. Meanwhile, price pressures picked up, with the rises in input and output costs accelerating to six- and four-month highs, respectively. Furthermore, inflationary pressure was pronounced particularly in the U.S., which experienced the steepest rise in output costs and second-fastest increase in input costs of the nations covered.

Job openings for manufacturing increased by 41,000 to 437,000 in July. On the other hand, the June job openings level of 396,000 was revised downward from 415,000 in the previous report. Nondurable goods job openings in July rose by 23,000 to 176,000, while durable goods job openings advanced by 18,000 to 261,000. The manufacturing job openings rate increased to 3.3% from 3.0% in June but fell from 3.7% the previous year. The rate for nondurable goods manufacturing grew 0.4% to 3.5%, while it ticked up 0.2% to 3.2% for durable goods.

In the larger economy, the number of job openings dropped to 7.2 million, a decrease of 176,000 from the previous month and 323,000 from the previous year. The job openings rate declined to 4.3%, down from 4.4% in June and 4.5% last year. This data reflects an overall labor market that has eased back to pre-pandemic levels, but remains relatively tight from a historical perspective.

The number of hires in the overall economy increased 41,000 to 5.3 million in July but decreased 143,000 from the previous year. The hires rate for the overall economy stayed the same in July at 3.3%. Meanwhile, the hires rate for manufacturing ticked up 0.2% in July to 2.5%. The hires rate for nondurable goods similarly increased 0.2% to 2.7%, while the hires rate for durable goods inched up 0.1% to 2.3%.

In the larger economy, total separations, which include quits, layoffs, discharges and other separations, decreased 52,000 from June to 5.3 million and 145,000 from the previous year. The total separations rate stayed the same at 3.3% for the overall economy and at 2.5% for manufacturing. Within that rate, layoffs and discharges increased by 6,000 in July for manufacturing, while quits rose by 9,000. The quit and layoff rates continue to remain lower for manufacturing than the total nonfarm sector.

In August, the U.S. manufacturing sector contracted for the sixth consecutive month but at a slower pace than the prior month, with the ISM Manufacturing^® PMI increasing to 48.7% from 48.0% in July. Two of the demand indicators improved in August, with the New Orders and New Export Orders Indexes rising to 51.4% and 47.6%, respectively. Meanwhile, the Backlog of Orders and Imports Indexes contracted at a faster pace, falling to 44.7% and 46.0%, respectively. On the other hand, the Inventories Index (49.4%) contracted at a slightly slower pace, while the Production Index returned to negative territory after growing in July, falling from 51.4% to 47.8%.

The New Orders Index expanded after six consecutive months of contraction, rising 4.3 percentage points from July. The index hasn’t shown consistent growth since a 24-month streak of expansion ended in May 2022. Of the six-largest manufacturing sectors, two—food, beverage and tobacco products and computer and electronic products— reported an increase in new orders. Despite the index’s expansion, respondents continued to note concern about near-term demand, due primarily to tariffs and uncertainty.

The New Export Orders Index contracted for the sixth consecutive month but at a slightly slower pace, 1.5 percentage points higher than July. The continued contraction is likely indicative of dampened demand amid ongoing trade tensions. Meanwhile, the Imports Index contracted for the fifth consecutive month and at a faster rate, down 1.6 percentage points to 46.0% in August. Imports continue to contract as tariff pricing results in lower demand compared to prior months.

The Employment Index contracted for the seventh consecutive month but at a slightly slower pace than the prior month, up 0.4 percentage points from July to 43.8%. Of the six-largest manufacturing sectors, none reported increased employment. Companies continued to reduce headcounts through layoffs and attrition, while opting for layoffs at an accelerating pace due to uncertainty around near- to mid-term demand. For every mention of hiring, four respondents noted reduced headcounts, a wide ratio from a historical standpoint.

The Prices Index decreased 1.1 percentage points to 63.7%, indicating prices for raw materials grew for the 11th straight month in August, but at a slower pace. The increase continues to be driven by the dramatic rise in steel and aluminum prices impacting the entire supply chain, as well as the tariffs applied to most imported goods. Roughly 33.5% of companies reported paying higher prices, down slightly from 35.4% in July but still up dramatically from 21% in January.

Nonfarm payroll employment inched up by 22,000 in August, coming in below expectations. Furthermore, June’s job gain was revised downward by 27,000 to a loss of 13,000 jobs, while July’s job gain was revised upward by 6,000 to a gain of 79,000 jobs. The 12-month average stands at 122,000 job gains per month. The unemployment rate increased 0.1% to 4.3%, while the labor force participation rate inched up 0.1% to 62.3%.

Manufacturing employment slipped by 12,000 in August, the fourth consecutive month of job losses. On the other hand, the collective job losses in June and July of 26,000 were revised upward by 7,000 jobs to a decrease of 19,000 jobs. Manufacturing employment is down 78,000 over the year. Durable goods manufacturing employment fell by 19,000 in August, while nondurable goods employment increased by 7,000. The most significant gain in manufacturing in August occurred in plastics and rubber products manufacturing, which added 4,300 jobs over the month. Meanwhile, the most significant loss occurred in transportation equipment manufacturing, which shed a whopping 14,500 jobs over the month.

The employment-population ratio stayed the same at 59.6% but is down 0.4 percentage points from a year ago. Employed persons who are part-time workers for economic reasons increased by 65,000 to 4.75 million but are down from 4.82 million in August 2024. Native-born employment is down 561,000 over the month but up 2,762,000 over the year. Meanwhile, foreign-born employment is up 50,000 over the month but down 822,000 over the year.

Average hourly earnings for all private nonfarm payroll employees rose 0.3%, or 10 cents, reaching $36.53. Over the past year, earnings have grown 3.7%. The average workweek for all employees stayed the same at 34.2 hours but edged down 0.1 hours to 40.0 hours for manufacturing employees.