News

Consumer prices rose 0.2% over the month and 2.6% over the year in October, in line with consensus expectations but higher than the 2.4% over-the-year increase in September. Core CPI, which excludes more volatile energy and food prices, stayed at a 3.3% over-the-year increase and remains higher than overall CPI.

Shelter increased 0.4% over the month and 4.9% over the year in October, accounting for more than 65% of the yearly increase of the all-items index. On the other hand, food price increases have slowed considerably, rising 0.2% over the month and 2.1% over the year in October. Prices for transportation services also remain high, rising 0.4% over the month and 8.2% over the year, with motor vehicle insurance increasing 14.0% over the year.

Energy costs, which were flat over the month, fell 4.9% over the year in October, helping to restrain the headline inflation rate. This decline is due partly to energy prices being somewhat elevated in October 2023. While energy commodity prices are down over the year, electricity prices are up 4.5%.

Although the over-the-year headline rate ticked up from the previous month, markets are still anticipating a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee’s next meeting in December. However, slowing progress on inflation might upend the Federal Reserve’s previous easing plans for 2025, pointing to the possibility of the FOMC’s interest rate target being cut at a slower pace.

Inflation rose again last month (The Wall Street Journal, subscription).

What’s going on: The consumer price index increased 0.2% in October, the fourth consecutive increase (Bureau of Labor Statistics).

• “[P]rices were up 2.6% from a year earlier, in line with economists’ expectations. Core inflation, at 3.3%, also matched forecasts,” according to the Journal.

The details: Shelter prices rose 0.4% in October, accounting for more than half the increases overall (BLS).

• Food prices inched up 0.2%, while energy prices were unchanged after having declined 1.9% in September.

What it means: The news strengthened investor confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December for the third time this year in an effort to hit its 2% inflation goal, the Journal reports.

• “The October CPI report will likely support the notion that the last mile of inflation’s journey back to target will be the hardest,” Wells Fargo economists wrote in a memo to clients (USA Today).

New orders for manufactured goods fell another 0.5% in September, after falling 0.8% in August. When excluding transportation equipment, new orders edged up 0.1%. Orders for durable goods dropped 0.7% after falling 0.9% in August. Year to date, durable goods orders are down 1.5%. Nondurable goods fell 0.2% in September after declining 0.7% in August. Nonetheless, nondurable goods orders are up 1.4% year to date.

New orders for turbines, generators, and other power transmission equipment experienced the greatest increase of any industry at 4.9%, while the defense aircraft and parts had the largest over the month decrease of 23.7%. After falling 17.9% in August, mining, oil field and gas field machinery orders are back up 3.3% in September. The largest over the year changes were in nondefense aircraft and parts, which are down 33.4%, and computers, which are up 23.2%.

Factory shipments decreased 0.4% in September, after falling 0.7% in August. Shipments excluding transportation were unchanged, following a 0.4% decline the previous month. Shipments for durable goods were down 0.5% in September but are up 1.6% year to date. Meanwhile, nondurable goods shipments fell 0.2% in September but are up 1.4% year to date.

Unfilled orders rose 0.2% in September, following a 0.2% increase in August. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio for durable goods increased to 6.94 from 6.86 in August. Inventories saw a slight decrease of 0.2%, while the inventories-to-shipments ratio remained unchanged at 1.46.

In October, the global manufacturing sector contracted for the fourth consecutive month, but at a slower pace than in September. Three of the five PMI components were at levels consistent with contraction. While employment declined at a faster rate than in September, new business orders and new export orders slowed their decline from the previous month. Output stabilized, rising slightly into growth territory, but stressed supply chains lengthened supplier delivery times.

A deceleration of the rate of contraction is reflective of improvement of operating conditions in China and easing of conditions in the U.S. and the Eurozone. Growth was fastest in India, Spain, Brazil and the Philippines compared to other surveyed countries.

Data broken down by sector pointed to ongoing struggles in the global industry. The intermediate and investment goods industries contracted for the fourth consecutive month, but the rate of decline eased. On the other hand, consumer goods growth continued at an increased rate.

In October, manufacturing employment is a concern, as job losses were noted for the third consecutive month and at the steepest rate since August 2020. Job cuts were reported in China, the U.S. and the Eurozone, while Canada, the UK and India registered employment growth. Nevertheless, confidence remained close to September’s reading, which was at a 22-month low. Inflationary pressures also held steady, with input prices remaining unchanged and output charges rising only slightly.

The inaugural “Empowering Women’s Leadership in Manufacturing” event was a smash hit.

What’s going on: The newly minted Women in National Association of Manufacturers—a group composed of women executives at NAM member companies—gathered for the first time last month at Johnson & Johnson’s World Headquarters in New Brunswick, New Jersey.

• Headlining the event were Johnson & Johnson Executive Vice President and Chief Technical Operations and Risk Officer (and NAM Board Chair) Kathy Wengel and Cornerstone Building Brands President and Chief Executive Officer (and NAM Executive Committee member) Rose Lee.
• NAM Executive Vice President of External Affairs Erin Streeter also spoke at the event, conducting a conversation with New Jersey State Senator Linda Greenstein, who is a co-chair of her state’s manufacturing caucus.

The background: WIN arose out of discussions among several women leaders on the NAM’s executive committee, including Wengel and Lee, who hosted introductory sessions at the NAM’s spring and fall board meetings. The goals of the new group include:

• Amplifying the voice of women leaders in manufacturing advocacy;
• Supporting professional growth for women in manufacturing; and
• Promoting the growth of women executives in NAM membership.

The word from Wengel: At the October event, the Johnson & Johnson leader paid homage to the women of J&J who led critical  operations for the organization over 100 years ago.

• “During World War I, Edith H. led a team of 140 women—running J&J’s sterile suture manufacturing operation round-the-clock to meet demand for our products on the front lines,” Wengel said.
• “Yes, we’ve come a long, long way [since WWI],” she continued, “but all of us know there’s still so much more we want and need to accomplish.”
• “With WIN, we want to transform the industry as a whole—creating momentum for meaningful reforms to policy and corporate culture that support professional growth for all women in manufacturing.”

A conversation with Lee: After her speech kicking off the event and introducing WIN, Wengel conducted a dialogue with Cornerstone President and CEO Lee, who also stressed the importance of spotlighting women’s experiences in manufacturing.

• “For most of us it’s been a long and sometimes tough journey,” Lee said. “But once we get here, it can be easy for some of the hard realities of the journey to fade as we deal with day-to-day challenges of running our company, division, business or team.”
• “For WIN to be effective, we need to stay in touch with the front lines where we make our great products, and with what the customers want and need. We also need to support and lift up one another to be the most effective women in manufacturing today,” she added.

Why it’s important: “Our companies are better, our industry is better, the world is better when women are an equal part of the leadership team and decision-making process,” Wengel said. “Everybody wins when we have more women in manufacturing leadership positions.”

Get involved: If you are a female leader in manufacturing, WIN is eager to hear your perspective. Please take the survey here to tell us your views on supporting women throughout the industry.

With a new administration and Congress on the horizon, the NAM is signaling confidence in its ability to secure wins for manufacturing in the United States, highlighting both recent achievements and policy priorities moving forward.

“The NAM has always focused on what’s best for manufacturing in America, and our track record speaks to that,” said NAM Executive Vice President Erin Streeter. “Our approach is consistent because we know what it takes to get results.”

What we’ve delivered: With post-partisan engagement, the NAM has achieved historic policy wins across both recent administrations, including:

• Tax reform: The NAM’s advocacy helped shape the 2017 tax cuts, driving billions in savings that manufacturers have reinvested in jobs, innovation and facility upgrades.
• Regulatory certainty: The NAM has played a pivotal role in streamlining regulations, reducing compliance costs under the Trump administration and working to slow regulatory expansion during the Biden years.
• United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement: The NAM was a key advocate for USMCA, safeguarding U.S. jobs by ensuring fairer competition and greater access to key markets.
• Energy advances: NAM-backed policies have supported growth in domestic energy production, creating a more stable energy market.
• Infrastructure and CHIPS Act: The NAM was instrumental in securing the historic Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and the CHIPS and Science Act, both critical for modernizing the economy, bolstering national security and ensuring a reliable semiconductor supply.

“These wins demonstrate what we bring to the table,” Streeter said. “By staying focused on manufacturing’s priorities, we can partner effectively with the new administration and Congress to create and protect jobs and strengthen communities.”

Looking ahead: The NAM’s focus on core issues remains critical for keeping the sector competitive and resilient, Streeter continued. These issues include:

• Securing tax reform: The NAM’s “Manufacturing Wins” campaign aims to lock in key 2017 tax provisions that manufacturers rely on for stability and growth. “Tax reform has been a game-changer,” said Streeter. “Protecting that progress means more jobs and manufacturing-led growth across the country.”
• Regulatory certainty: The NAM is advocating for balanced regulations that support competitiveness. “Manufacturers thrive with clear, fair rules,” Streeter noted. “We’re making sure Washington understands the importance of regulatory stability—and the danger of excessive regulation.”
• Energy security: The NAM is working to secure reliable, affordable energy while fostering innovation in sustainability. “Energy security and grid reliability are top of mind for every manufacturer,” Streeter added. “We’re ensuring manufacturers can continue to innovate, grow and drive America forward.”

Bottom line:  The NAM remains focused on advocating for policies that strengthen U.S. manufacturing. “Our success is built on trust and influence,” Streeter said. “Our members know the NAM is a constant force, with the relationships and expertise to deliver, regardless of political changes.”

In related news, President-elect Trump has named campaign manager Susie Wiles as White House chief of staff (Reuters, subscription), a choice NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons called “a powerful move to bring bold, results-driven leadership to the White House from day one.”

President Trump’s first term delivered significant wins for manufacturing in the United States, from tax reform to a regulatory overhaul to new trade agreements. Now, as the president-elect gears up for a second term, we look back on the transformational achievements and the NAM’s role in shaping policies that revitalized manufacturing in the U.S.

“Rocket fuel”: President Trump took the stage at the NAM’s board meeting in September 2017, where he laid out his tax reform agenda, describing it as “rocket fuel” for the U.S. economy. This was no ordinary policy effort—it was a generational initiative that would reshape industry in the United States.

• The impact: The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act delivered a 21% corporate tax rate while instituting full and immediate expensing for capital investments, improved interest deductibility and provided other critical provisions for small manufacturers and the entire industry.
• As a result, manufacturers nationwide reported record optimism, expanded operations, hired more workers, increased wages and benefits and reinvested in their communities.

Regulatory certainty: Recognizing that excessive regulations were stifling growth, the Trump White House asked then-NAM Board Chair David Farr in the first half of 2017 to compile a report from NAM members on the regulations causing them the most harm. The NAM team worked closely with administration leaders to address these pain points, compiling a list of 158 regulations for reform, with an emphasis on regulatory predictability and simplicity.

• The impact: By the close of Trump’s first term, more than 90% of the NAM’s regulatory recommendations were addressed or nearing completion. This unprecedented relief helped manufacturers focus on growth, product innovation and expansion.

Stronger deals: The Trump administration kept manufacturers and the NAM at the table, forging a trilateral deal to strengthen manufacturing’s competitive edge.

• The impact: Thanks in large part to manufacturers’ persistent advocacy work with lawmakers on Capitol Hill, the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement was signed into law, restoring trade certainty for the North American markets that support millions of manufacturing jobs in the United States.
• While the NAM continues to pressure Mexico and Canada to live up to their commitments, the agreement strengthened businesses in the U.S. by ensuring updated trade standards, bolstering protections for intellectual property and digital trade and enhancing cooperation among North American partners.

Energy independence: Under President Trump’s administration, the NAM advanced an all-of-the-above energy strategy that included expanded domestic energy production and efficiency efforts. The NAM partnered with the Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of Energy to promote practices that both protected the environment and advanced innovation for a sustainable future.

• The impact: As former Trump EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler pointed out recently at NAM headquarters in Washington, the rollback of restrictive energy regulations and the decision to maintain workable standards empowered manufacturers to increase domestic energy production, which reduced costs and bolstered energy independence.
• This balanced approach allowed manufacturers to meet consumer demand, strengthen supply chains and make greater contributions to America’s economy and environmental stewardship.

Safeguarding American IP: Confronting unfair trade practices with China was another priority. In 2019, the NAM worked closely with the White House to secure the “phase one” trade deal with China, which was designed to strengthen protections for American IP and help level the playing field for manufacturers in the U.S.

• The impact: The agreement established enforceable trade standards with China, aiming to protect U.S. innovations and support American jobs.

Operation Warp Speed: As the COVID-19 pandemic unfolded, manufacturers were at the forefront of the response. The NAM and its members partnered with the Trump administration to secure essential operations activity to implement Operation Warp Speed, a public–private partnership that fast-tracked the development, manufacturing and distribution of vaccines.

• The impact: Operation Warp Speed delivered lifesaving vaccines in record time, saving millions of lives, ending the global pandemic and demonstrating the unequaled capacity of American innovation and manufacturing.

Dignity of work: To address the skills gap, the Trump White House created the American Workforce Policy Advisory Board, naming NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons a member. Alongside other manufacturing leaders, and with the support of the NAM’s workforce development and education affiliate, the Manufacturing Institute, Timmons worked with the administration to elevate manufacturing careers and expand access to training. In a key event, the NAM and Ivanka Trump, who received the Alexander Hamilton Award for her leadership in championing manufacturing, launched the Creators Wanted Tour in 2020 to inspire the next generation of manufacturers and close the skills gap.

• The impact: Creators Wanted became the largest industry campaign to build excitement about modern manufacturing careers, highlighting the industry’s high-tech, well-paying jobs and reinforcing its role in supporting the American Dream. The campaign helped shift parents’ positive perception of manufacturing careers from 27% to 40% and signed up more than 1.5 million students and career mentors to learn more about manufacturing careers.

Bottom line: “President Trump’s first term reshaped what’s possible for manufacturing in the United States,” said NAM Executive Vice President Erin Streeter. “As he prepares to lead again, manufacturers have the benefit of building on a strong foundation with the president-elect as well as the purpose and pride that the industry brings out in lawmakers on both sides of the aisle.”

Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-FL-16), chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee’s American Manufacturing Tax Team, led a group of House GOP members on a tour of manufacturing facilities in Michigan last month. The tour highlighted the importance of extending critical tax provisions set to expire in 2025.

Reps. Mike Collins (R-GA-10), Kevin Hern (R-OK-1), Victoria Spartz (R-IN-5) and Rudy Yakym (R-IN-2) joined Rep. Buchanan for a series of discussions focused on ensuring that the tax code enables manufacturers in the U.S. to remain globally competitive. 

Touring DENSO: The representatives first visited DENSO’s facility in Southfield, where executives outlined the crucial role research and development plays in the automotive sector. However, the expiration of immediate R&D expensing in 2022 has threatened to hamstring their capacity to innovate, DENSO’s leaders said.

• Buchanan emphasized the urgency of reinstating immediate R&D expensing to keep manufacturers in the U.S. competitive. “We cannot allow our manufacturers to fall behind in innovation because of uncompetitive tax policies,” he said.
• “Restoring R&D expensing will allow companies like DENSO to continue investing in their businesses, employees and local communities.”

Lunch with manufacturers: Next, the NAM hosted a luncheon roundtable for the representatives and local manufacturers, where participants discussed the need to preserve pro-growth tax policies.

• NAM Executive Vice President Erin Streeter opened the discussion by highlighting how the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act has been “rocket fuel” for the manufacturing industry. “Tax reform led to historic job creation and wage growth for manufacturers of all sizes,” Streeter said. “Congress must protect manufacturers from devastating tax increases by preserving tax reform in its entirety.”
• Several manufacturers voiced concerns about threats to key tax provisions, including the pass-through deduction and the 21% corporate tax rate.
• “If these tax policies are allowed to expire, we’ll be forced to cut back on investments that drive growth,” one local manufacturer said.

Visiting Magna International: Last, the representatives toured Magna International’s facility in St. Clair, where the group got to see the production of the company’s cutting-edge autonomous vehicle technology.

• During the tour, Magna’s leaders noted that the expiration of pro-growth tax provisions could hamper future investments in these critical technologies​.

Momentum: These events followed a series of facility visits from key congressional leaders over the August congressional recess, hosted by the NAM and spotlighting the top priorities of American manufacturers.

• “These discussions are shaping the future of manufacturing right here on the shop floor,” said NAM Managing Vice President of Government Relations Stef Webb. “From R&D expensing and accelerated depreciation to the pass-through deduction and the corporate tax rate, these are the policies manufacturers need to stay competitive in the global market.”

The last word: Following the day’s events, Rep. Buchanan reaffirmed the Manufacturing Tax Team’s commitment to ensuring a competitive tax environment.

• “We must fight to preserve the tax policies that have allowed American manufacturing to thrive,” Rep. Buchanan said. “The stakes are high, and Congress must act before it’s too late.”

If you want to add your voice to the fight for tax reform, or host legislators for a facility visit, check out the NAM’s “Manufacturing Wins” campaign.  

The NAM recently interviewed Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) on the importance of reinstating immediate expensing for companies’ research-and-development expenditures. Here’s the full interview:

NAM: Sen. Hassan, Congress is facing a “Tax Armageddon” next year, as crucial provisions from 2017’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act are set to expire. As a member of the Senate Finance Committee, what is your focus moving into next year’s debate?

Sen. Hassan: Next year, we will need to work to pass a tax cut package to support both American families and businesses. The package should build on the one that was negotiated in the Senate earlier this year, including a restoration of the full R&D tax deduction to support innovative businesses. The R&D tax deduction is an area where I have been particularly engaged in negotiations, and it is vital for our national security and economic competitiveness. We need to ensure that our tax policy fosters innovation, promotes the creation of good-paying jobs and keeps the United States at the forefront of technological advancement. We also need to prioritize a bipartisan expansion of the Child Tax Credit to support hardworking families and a bipartisan expansion of the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit to address our country’s housing shortage. I will continue to push for these critical measures throughout negotiations.

NAM: As you know, for nearly 70 years, manufacturers in the U.S. were able to fully deduct their R&D expenses in the year incurred. Beginning in 2022, however, manufacturers were forced to spread their deductions over several years, greatly harming our ability to grow and compete. What is Congress doing to restore immediate R&D expensing?

Sen. Hassan: I first introduced bipartisan legislation with Sen. Todd Young to restore the R&D deduction back in 2020, and we’ve been pushing for its passage since. The R&D tax deduction has wide bipartisan support—our measure supporting full R&D expensing passed 90–5 in the Senate in 2022. Recently, we had a bipartisan tax cut package that included the R&D tax deduction’s restoration, but unfortunately, it was blocked in the Senate, despite passing the House with an overwhelmingly bipartisan 357–70 vote. It’s disappointing and frustrating.

NAM: During your time as senator, you have seen how impactful R&D is for manufacturers to be able to compete on a global level. As we get closer to next year, what are you hearing from stakeholders on the need for pro-growth tax policy so American businesses can engage and grow around the world?

Sen. Hassan: The message I’m getting is clear—we can’t afford to fall behind in the global R&D race; it’s about American competitiveness and national security. Countries like China are offering massive incentives, including a 200% super-deduction for R&D. That puts American businesses at a real disadvantage, and I’m already hearing from business leaders across New Hampshire about how the expiration of the tax deduction is impacting their ability to plan for and make the investments that drive our economy forward.

There’s a critical national security component here too. We need to be at the forefront of designing, implementing and controlling new technologies, including those used for our national defense.

NAM: Thank you, Sen. Hassan. What else can NAM members do to stay engaged and be a resource for you going into next year?

Sen. Hassan: Your advocacy is crucial. I encourage NAM members to keep speaking up about the ways in which R&D and tax policy specifically impacts your businesses and communities, as well as the need for bipartisan compromise. Doing so is invaluable in shaping effective legislation and getting it across the finish line.

With a “Tax Armageddon” looming at the end of 2025, Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) is gearing up to fight for manufacturers. Sen. Hassan, who introduced the bipartisan American Innovation and Jobs Act (S. 866) with Sen. Todd Young (R-IN) in 2020 and reintroduced it last year, understands the importance of restoring expired manufacturing-critical tax provisions.

What’s going on: One of Sen. Hassan’s top priorities for 2025 is reinstating immediate expensing for companies’ research and development costs.

• For nearly seven decades, manufacturers could fully deduct R&D spending in the year those expenses were incurred. But since immediate R&D expensing was allowed to expire in 2022, manufacturers have been required to amortize R&D expenses over a period of years instead.
• “The R&D tax deduction … is vital for our national security and economic competitiveness,” Sen. Hassan told us in a recent interview for the NAM’s “Manufacturing Wins” campaign, adding that she has “been particularly engaged in negotiations” on the topic. “We need to ensure that our tax policy fosters innovation, promotes the creation of [well]-paying jobs and keeps the United States at the forefront of technological advancement.”

Why it’s important: “The message I’m getting [from manufacturers] is clear: We can’t afford to fall behind in the global R&D race,” Sen. Hassan continued. “It’s about American competitiveness and national security. Countries like China are offering massive incentives, including a 200% super-deduction for R&D. That puts American businesses at a real disadvantage.”

What she’ll be doing: Though a bipartisan tax cut package that included a restored R&D tax deduction passed in the House earlier this year, the legislation stalled in the Senate. That’s only made Sen. Hassan vow to redouble her efforts in 2025.

• “[L]ooking ahead, I’m committed to working across the aisle to get this done because it’s crucial for our manufacturers, our economy and our national security,” she said.

What you can do: Manufacturer input and engagement are vital as Congress considers tax legislation next year, Sen. Hassan emphasized.

• “I encourage [manufacturers] to keep speaking up about the ways in which R&D and tax policy specifically impacts your businesses and communities, as well as the need for bipartisan compromise. Doing so is invaluable in shaping effective legislation and getting it across the finish line.”

Read the full interview here.
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