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In December, the U.S. manufacturing sector contracted for the ninth consecutive month, with the ISM Manufacturing^® PMI rising to 49.3% from 48.4% the prior month, indicating activity contracted at a slower pace. The New Orders Index continued in expansion territory, strengthening to 52.5%. In addition, production returned to expansion after six months of contraction, registering 50.3%. Meanwhile, inventories (48.4%), employment (45.3%) and backlog of orders (45.9%) remained in contraction. The Inventories Index, although still low, ticked up from its November reading of 48.1, suggesting a desire by companies being more willing to advance order deliveries to avoid potential tariffs.

The New Orders Index increased for the second consecutive month and rose 2.1 percentage points from November. While the index hasn’t shown consistent growth since a 24-month streak of expansion ended in May 2022, respondents noted an improvement in demand, with two major sectors—computer and electronic products and food, beverage and tobacco products—reporting an increase in new orders.

The Production Index rose 3.5 percentage points in December to expansion after contracting in November. Despite expanding overall, only one of the six largest manufacturing sectors (computer and electronic products) reported increased production. Meanwhile, an expansion of new orders coupled with relatively stable production levels slowed the rate of declining backlog levels.

The Employment Index dropped 2.8 percentage points in December, contracting for the seventh consecutive month and at a faster pace. Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, none reported increased employment. Furthermore, companies continued to reduce headcounts through layoffs, attrition and hiring freezes.

The Prices Index rose 2.2 percentage points to 52.5%, indicating raw materials prices increased for the third straight month in December. Aluminum, basic chemicals, copper and natural gas registered increases, offset partly by steel, plastic resins and diesel fuel falling in price. Slightly more than 14% of companies reported paying higher prices, up barely from the percentage reported in November but down from nearly 20% in October.

Existing home sales increased 4.8% in November and jumped 6.1% from November 2023. Housing inventory declined to 1.33 million units, reflecting a 2.9% decrease from October but up 17.7% from last year. The median existing home price was $406,100, up 4.7% from last year, with all four U.S. regions reporting price increases.

Single-family home sales rose 5.0% from October, with the median price increasing 4.8% from November 2023 to $410,900. Condo and co-op sales grew 2.6% in November but declined 4.9% from the previous year, with the median price up 2.8% from the prior year to $359,800.

Homes were typically on the market for 32 days in November, up from 29 days in October and 25 days in November 2023. First-time buyers made up 30% of sales in November, up slightly from 27% in October but down from 31% in November 2023. All-cash sales accounted for 25% of transactions in November, down from 27% both in October and November 2023. Meanwhile, investors or second-home buyers represented 13% of homes purchased in November, down from 17% in October and 18% a year ago. Distressed sales, including foreclosures and short sales, represented 2% of purchases in November, unchanged from October and last year.

Building permits increased 6.1% in November but fell 0.2% over the year. Permits for single-family homes rose 0.1% in November but declined 2.7% over the year. Permits for buildings with five or more units grew 22.1% from October and 4.8% over the year.

In November, housing starts decreased 1.8% over the month and 14.6% over the year. Additionally, starts for single-family homes increased 6.4% from October but fell 10.2% from November 2023. Meanwhile, starts for buildings with five or more units plummeted 24.1% from October and 28.8% over the year.

Housing completions decreased 1.9% from October but jumped 9.2% from November 2023. Single-family home completions increased 3.3% from October and 7.0% over the year. Completions for buildings with five or more units dropped 11.1% over the month but rose 13.6% from November 2023.

Manufacturing activity fell slightly in the Tenth District in December, while expectations for future activity rose. The Tenth Federal Reserve District encompasses the western third of Missouri; all of Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Wyoming; and the northern half of New Mexico. The month-over-month decline in activity was driven primarily by durable goods falling modestly, particularly wood, mineral and primary metal manufacturing, while nondurable goods activity was flat. Most month-over-month indexes were negative.

Both production and new orders fell slightly, while employment ticked up. The backlog of orders continued to decline to -22. The year-over-year composite index for factory activity ticked up slightly but was still negative. Capital expenditures, prices received and prices for raw materials all increased year-over-year while other indexes declined. The future composite index rose from 11 to 18, driven by high expectations for future production, shipments and new orders. Manufacturers also expected employment and capital expenditures to grow in the next six months.

This month, survey respondents were asked about worker productivity. More than half of firms (57%) reported that productivity has not changed in the past year, while 19% reported less productive workers and 15% reported more productivity. Firms were also asked about their reliance on immigrant workers. Nearly 70% said they were not reliant on immigrant workers, while 12% said they were slightly reliant, 13% were somewhat reliant and 6% were very reliant.

In December, Philadelphia’s regional manufacturing activity declined overall. The index for current general business activity remained negative and fell further from -5.5 to -16.4. Just 16% of firms reported increased activity this month, while nearly 33% saw decreases and nearly 47% experienced no change. The indexes for new orders and shipments turned negative and declined to -4.3 and -1.9, respectively. On the other hand, firms continued to report an increase in employment after steady job gains last month, with the employment index edging down slightly from 8.6 to 6.6. The average workweek index reversed last month’s surge, falling from 17.4 to -8.2.

Price indexes diverged, with the prices paid index increasing and the prices received index decreasing, indicating an overall rise in prices. The prices paid index moved up from 26.6 to 31.2. The prices received index remained significantly lower than the prices paid index at 7.3, exhibiting how manufacturers are eating a sizable portion of those higher costs paid.

Looking ahead, most future indicators decreased but remain elevated after two months of significant increases. The index for future general business activity fell 26 points from 56.6 to 30.7, indicating a leveling off of optimism among firms. A higher proportion of firms still expected increases in activity. Additionally, the future new orders and shipments indexes fell but were above their historical averages. While firms still expect employment to grow, the index for future employment ticked down from 34.2 to 32.1. The capital expenditures index also fell from 24.9 to 18.8. The future prices paid index declined 7 points to 56.4, while future prices received rose 10 points to 58.4.

Manufacturing activity in New York state held steady in December, with the headline general business activity index retreating 31 points to 0.2 after rising sharpy in November. In December, the new orders index decreased to 6.1, falling 21.9 points, while the shipments index fell 23.1 points to 9.4, reflecting modest gains in both orders and shipments. Unfilled orders improved slightly to -8.4 from -10.3, while inventories grew from 1.0 to 10.5. Delivery times shortened, falling 10.5 points to -7.4, while supply availability was little changed, rising to 1.1.

Employment decreased slightly in December, with the index for the number of employees falling from 0.9 to -5.8. The average employee workweek also fell, from 6.1 to -3.9, signaling a decline in both employment and hours worked. Input and selling price increases moderated, as reflected in the prices paid index falling 6.7 points to 21.1 and the prices received index decreasing 8.2 points to 4.2.

Manufacturers felt fairly optimistic about the months ahead, but less positive than the prior month. The index for future business activity decreased to 24.6, with nearly 42% of respondents expecting conditions to improve over the next six months. Although inventories are expected to continue growing, the anticipated increase in new orders dropped from the prior month, falling 9.6 points to 21.8 in December.

Industrial production fell 0.1% in November after declining 0.4% in October. On the other hand, manufacturing output rose 0.2%, with a 3.5% gain in the motor vehicles and parts index leading the increase. Despite the end of the Boeing worker strike in early November, aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment output declined 2.6%, largely because of decreases in aircraft parts production. At 102.0% of its 2017 average, total industrial production in November fell 0.9% from the same month last year. Capacity utilization dropped to 76.8%, 2.9 percentage points below its long-term average from 1972 to 2023, but rose 1.2% from the same month last year.

In November, major market groups saw mixed results. Among consumer goods, the production of durables increased 1.6%, led by appliances, furniture and carpeting (3.4%) and automotive products (2.0%), while the index for nondurables decreased 0.4%, with the greatest declines in clothing (-2.0%) and paper products (-1.4%). The business equipment index improved 1.2% in November, with transit equipment up 5.1% after two months of double-digit declines.

Durable goods manufacturing increased 0.7% in November. Apart from the drop in aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment (-2.6%), most durable manufacturing industry groups posted gains. Nondurable goods manufacturing, on the other hand, slipped 0.3% in November, with the largest loss in apparel and leather (-2.1%).

Manufacturing capacity utilization inched up 0.1% to 76.0%, which is 2.3 percentage points below the long-term average.

Manufacturers support the policy recommendations laid out in the House of Representatives’ newly released report on artificial intelligence, the NAM said Tuesday.

What’s going on: The Bipartisan House Task Force Report on Artificial Intelligence contains AI-related recommendations for implementation by Congress.

• Drafted by the House AI Task Force—12 Republicans and 12 Democrats—the 273-page document “highlights America’s leadership in its approach to responsible AI innovation while considering guardrails that may be appropriate to safeguard the nation against current and emerging threats,” the task force’s co-chairs, Reps. Jay Obernolte (R-CA) and Ted Lieu (D-CA), wrote in a letter to House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) at the beginning of the report.

The details: The task force report includes many recommendations that the NAM supports, including the following:

• Promote innovation: “As the global leader in AI development and deployment, the United States is best positioned to responsibly enable the potential of this transformative technology for all. To maintain this leadership and enable the U.S. economy to harness the full benefits of AI, policymakers should continue to promote AI innovation.”
• Safeguard against harm: “A thoughtful, risk-based approach to AI governance can promote innovation rather than stifle it.”
• Plan for power needs: “Planning properly now for new power generation and transmission is critical for AI innovation and adoption.”
• Develop an AI-ready workforce: “Successful collaborations between educational institutions, government and industries should effectively align education and workforce development with market needs and emerging technologies.”
• Protect privacy: Congress should “[e]nsure privacy laws are generally applicable and technology-neutral.”
• Make compliance feasible: Lawmakers should ensure that AI regulatory compliance is not unduly burdensome for small businesses
• Increase cooperation: Bolster collaboration between the government, industry and academia to boost innovation and expand markets.

NAM alignment: In May, the NAM released “Working Smarter: How Manufacturers Are Using Artificial Intelligence,” its own report on AI’s deployment in the manufacturing sector and an accompanying list of suggested policy actions for Congress to take.

• The NAM briefed legislators on its report in September.

Next steps: The NAM will work closely with policymakers in Congress and the incoming administration to bolster AI innovation in manufacturing, based on shared policy goals.   

Additionally, manufacturers will continue to call on Congress to pass federal data privacy legislation that “preempt[s] state privacy regulations [and] resolve[s] conflicting requirements in different states”—an important issue for the use of AI where the House report does not prescribe a policy solution.

The NAM is urging President Trump to reconsider the Biden administration’s misguided findings regarding new liquefied natural gas export permits, following the release of a Department of Energy study claiming that increased permit numbers would have negative effects on the nation.
 
What’s going on: The Department of Energy’s analysis, released Tuesday, holds “that ‘unfettered’ shipments of the fuel would make domestic prices rise … [and would] displace more renewables” (E&E News).

• However, the “report from Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm is clearly a politically motivated document designed for an audience who believes no form of carbon-based energy is acceptable,” NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons said. “LNG exports play a crucial role in reducing emissions by providing cleaner energy alternatives to countries reliant on higher emission sources.”   

What the ban’s done: The result of the Biden administration’s moratorium—issued in January—on the issuance of new U.S. LNG export permits has been “chilled energy investment, costing the country manufacturing jobs and holding us back from achieving energy dominance on the world stage,” Timmons continued.

• “The DOE’s report claims to be concerned about security, but the actions of this administration on LNG only serve to incentivize Europe to purchase natural gas from Russia.”  

A popular, key energy source: U.S. LNG is far cleaner than Russian LNG (House Energy and Commerce Committee). Furthermore, an October study by the NAM and PwC found that U.S. LNG is a significant and crucial contributor to gross domestic product, as well as an important source of jobs and federal, state and local taxes.

• What’s more, Americans want to keep exporting it. In a March NAM poll of 1,000 registered voters, more than 87% said they believe the U.S. should continue to export LNG.   

The bottom line: “The data is clear: LNG exports are a driving force for economic growth and job creation in the United States,” Timmons concluded. “Halting LNG export licenses as suggested would threaten nearly a million jobs and undermine our nation’s economic stability. The NAM asks President Trump to end this political war on the energy manufacturers that power our economy, fuel job growth and help ensure America’s national security.” 

In its current form, the Environmental Protection Agency’s recent proposal to add specific per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances and PFAS categories to a database of toxic chemicals would place an unnecessary hardship on manufacturers, the NAM told the agency recently.
 
What’s going on: In October, the EPA published draft rules that would add 16 individual PFAS and 15 PFAS categories representing more than 100 individual PFAS to its Toxic Release Inventory, a list of potentially hazardous chemical release and waste management activities taking place in the U.S.

• Companies producing or manufacturing products with chemistries added to the TRI are required to complete and submit inventory forms each year for the chemicals they make and use over established limits.
• “The NAM believes this proposed rule will create unduly burdensome compliance requirements and increase costs for manufacturers and consumers as written,” NAM Vice President of Domestic Policy Chris Phalen said this month.

What should happen: The EPA should “adopt the following approaches to the proposed rulemaking”:

• Stay the proposal to give the public more time to comment on it.
• Revise the proposed PFAS and PFAS category additions to reflect “a meaningful baseline of scientific evidence” and ensure that “the scientific evidence justifying the listing[s] [is] supported by peer review and public comment.”
• List individually every PFAS added to the TRI and make each one identifiable.
• Narrow the group of PFAS listed as “chemicals of special concern” to reflect the scope of authority granted to the EPA by the fiscal year 2020 National Defense Authorization Act.

Why it’s important: “While the EPA estimates this proposed rule would result in up to 1,110 TRI reporting forms annually at an estimated cost of up to $6.6 million for its first year and up to $3.1 million for subsequent years, we anticipate the compliance costs to manufacturers will be significantly higher,” Phalen continued.

• If finalized as written, the rule will force manufacturers to hire additional workers and consultants, train employees on proper reporting processes, spend huge sums of money on testing and verifying results and much more.
• The result: “a costly drain on [manufacturers’] resources … [that] will lead to a rise in operational and production costs far above the EPA’s cost estimates for the proposed rule.”