News

For a stronger, more competitive America, Congress must make permanent the pro-growth tax provisions from President Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons and House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO) wrote in a recent op-ed for the Washington Examiner.

What’s going on: “The choice is clear. Congress must deliver the results the American people voted for on Election Day by extending and expanding Trump’s pro-growth tax policies, which have worked so well.”

• The reforms allowed manufacturers “to hire, expand and invest in their communities” at historic rates, with a particularly positive effect on small and medium-sized businesses.
• Georgia-based Winton Machine Company, which produces machinery used in tubular parts and coaxial cable fabrication, would not have been able to expand its workforce, raise employee pay or purchase critical technology had it not been for the TCJA, as Winton CEO and Co-Owner and NAM board member Lisa Winton told Congress in 2023.
• Austin Ramirez, president and CEO of hydraulic and electromechanical control systems maker Husco in Wisconsin and NAM Executive Committee member, told legislators that tax reform allowed his family-owned company “to create jobs, expand research and development, compete globally and invest in its future, including the most significant renovation of his business in 70 years,” Timmons and Chairman Smith wrote.

What’s at stake: “Key provisions of the 2017 Trump tax reforms have already expired, and many more are set to lapse later this year,” Timmons and Chairman Smith continued.

• “Without swift action, manufacturers will miss out on tax incentives for research and development and equipment purchases, while small businesses and family-owned manufacturers will see their tax rate double to as high as 43.4%—all at a time when global competition is intensifying.”

According to a recent NAM study cited in the op-ed, if Congress fails to preserve tax reform by the end of this year:

• Nearly 6 million U.S. jobs—more than 1 million of them in manufacturing—will be lost; and
• America will lose some $1.1 trillion in GDP and $540 billion in wages.

What must be done: Congress must act now to restore the pro-manufacturing tax provisions that have already sunset and make permanent those that are scheduled to expire, Timmons and Chairman Smith concluded.

• “With Trump leading the charge, it is time for Congress to deliver, protect these reforms and set American workers up for success in 2025 and beyond. Together, we can ensure the next chapter in America’s story is one of growth, opportunity and strength.”

Former Transportation Security Administration Assistant Administrator for Strategic Communications and Public Affairs Alexa Lopez has joined the NAM’s communications team.
 
What’s going on: Lopez, a native of Dayton, Ohio, is the NAM’s vice president of communications and public affairs, a newly created position.

• “Alexa knows how to navigate complex challenges, craft compelling narratives and drive real impact,” NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons said. “She has built a career on delivering results, and manufacturers will benefit from her ability to elevate our industry’s voice at a time when manufacturers’ influence on the future has never been more important.”
• Lopez holds a Master of Public Affairs and a Master of Arts in Arts Administration from the Indiana University O’Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs.

Proven track record: At the TSA, Lopez led all media operations, strategic communications, marketing and branding and multimedia efforts and served as adviser to the TSA administrator. She was at the agency for four years.

• Prior to that, Lopez worked in public affairs at the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the American Society of Civil Engineers, Ogilvy Public Relations and the City of Bloomington, Indiana.

On Feb. 1, President Donald Trump imposed 25% tariffs on products from Canada with lower 10% on energy products, 25% tariffs on products from Mexico and an additional 10% on products from the People’s Republic of China.

NAM Vice President of International Policy Andrea Durkin and her team break down the actions for manufacturers:

Executive orders impose tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico: On Feb. 1, President Trump, through three separate executive orders, declared a national emergency and invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to apply ad valorem tariffs on products from Canada, Mexico and China, citing the sustained influx of illicit opioids and other drugs.

• Canada Executive Order:“Imposing Duties to Address the Flow of Illicit Drugs Across Our Northern Border”
• China Executive Order: “Imposing Duties to Address the Synthetic Opioid Supply Chain in the People’s Republic of China”
• Mexico Executive Order: “Imposing Duties to Address the Situation at the Southern Border”

How tariffs will apply:

• For products from Canada:
• A 25% tariff will be applied in addition to any already applicable duties, fees or charges.
• A 10% tariff will be applied to “energy or energy resources” defined as crude oil, natural gas, lease condensates, natural gas liquids, refined petroleum products, uranium, coal, biofuels, geothermal heat, hydropower and critical minerals.
• For products from China:
  • A 10% tariff will be applied in addition to any already applicable duties, fees or charges.
  • For products from Mexico:
  • A 25% tariff will be applied in addition to any already applicable duties, fees or charges.
• No duty drawback:No drawback shall be available with respect to the duties imposed pursuant to these orders.
• De minimis: Duty-free de minimis treatment will be suspended.

Timing of the tariffs:

• Tariffs will apply from Feb. 4, 2025.
• Tariffs will not apply to goods loaded onto a vessel or in transit before 12:01 a.m. Feb. 1 with certification to U.S. Customs.

Duration of tariffs: The tariffs will remain in place until the president determines that the governments of Canada, Mexico and/or China have taken “sufficient action to alleviate the crisis,” including through cooperative enforcement actions.

A retaliation clause: The president may increase or expand in scope the tariffs imposed under these executive orders if the governments of Canada, Mexico and/or China impose retaliatory tariffs.

Reports to Congress: The Secretary of Homeland Security, in coordination with the Secretary of the Treasury and other agencies, will submit recurring and final reports to Congress on the state of the national emergency under these orders.

What’s next: The NAM issued a statement in response, and the NAM trade team is analyzing the impact on manufacturers and will continue to engage policymakers on these sweeping trade actions.

How USMCA Boosted North American Supply Chains

Existing home sales increased 2.2% in December and jumped 9.3% from December 2023, the largest annual gain since June 2021. Housing inventory declined to 1.15 million units, reflecting a 13.5% decrease from November but up 16.2% from last year. The median existing home price was $404,400, up 6.0% from last year, with all four U.S. regions reporting price increases.

Single-family home sales rose 1.9% in December, with the median price increasing 6.1% from December 2023 to $409,300. Condo and co-op sales grew 5.1% in December and 2.5% from the previous year, with the median price up 4.5% from the prior year to $359,000.

Homes were typically on the market for 35 days in December, up from 32 days in November and 29 days in December 2023. First-time buyers made up 31% of sales in December, up slightly from 30% in November and 29% in the same month last year. All-cash sales accounted for 28% of transactions in December, up from 25% in November but down from 29% in December 2023. Meanwhile, investors or second-home buyers represented 16% of homes purchased in December, up from 13% in November and the same as December 2023. Distressed sales, including foreclosures and short sales, represented 2% of purchases in December, unchanged from the past two months and from the previous year.

The S&P Global Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI rose slightly from 49.4 in December to 50.1 in January, signaling nominal growth in manufacturing after six months of contraction. Both factory production and new orders increased for the first time in six months. Employment also rose for the third month in a row, and the rate of job creation is the highest since July. Supplier delivery times lengthened, indicating busier supply chains, but this was offset by the greatest drop in inventories in 17 months.

The improvement in sentiment was notable in the manufacturing sector, soaring to the highest reading since May 2022, adding to suggestions that activity may improve further in the coming months. Respondents cited a more business-friendly new administration in terms of looser regulation and lower taxes as beneficial to the outlook. On the other hand, others cited concern over tariffs, a strong dollar and higher prices.

Manufacturing activity contracted modestly in the Tenth District in January, while expectations for future activity remained positive but slipped from 17 to 15 from December. The Tenth Federal Reserve District encompasses the western third of Missouri; all of Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Wyoming; and the northern half of New Mexico. The month-over-month decrease in activity was due to modest declines in both durable and nondurable manufacturing. Most month-over-month indexes were negative, apart from employment, prices and finished goods inventories.

Production fell three points to -9, while new orders improved from -16 to -6. Employment remained roughly the same in January. The backlog of orders remained negative but ticked up to -19 from -22. The year-over-year composite index for factory activity increased from -16 to -9 but stayed negative. Like in December, capital expenditures, prices received and prices for raw materials all increased year-over-year in January while other indexes declined.

This month, survey respondents were asked about their firms’ exports and imports. More than half of firms (55%) sell 1% to 25% of their products or services outside of the U.S., while more than two-thirds (67%) source 1% to 25% of their inputs from outside of the U.S. On the other hand, more than one-third (36%) of firms do not sell their products or services internationally, and only 16% of firms source none of their imports from outside of the U.S. Additionally, a majority of firms do not expect their sourcing decisions to change in the next year (57%) or next three years (53%). Almost a quarter of firms (23%) anticipate slight reductions in internationally sourced inputs in the next three years. Over the next year, 16% of firms forecast increases in sourcing outside of the U.S., while 18% expect increases in the next three years.

Weeks ahead of the inauguration, manufacturers provided the Trump administration with a list of several dozen regulations that should be reconsidered or rescinded to protect manufacturers’ competitiveness. This list covered everything from power plant regulations to employment rules, and some of its recommendations have already been enacted—such as the revocation of the ban on liquefied natural gas exports, which President Trump ordered on Monday.

But signing executive orders is not enough to right-size the regulatory state and remove restrictions on manufacturers’ growth—in general, final agency rules can only be amended through notice-and-comment rulemaking. What does the administration need to do to make this rollback stick?

NAM Chief Legal Officer Linda Kelly spoke to us about the policy and legal landscape that the new administration will have to navigate.

The long term: “Manufacturers need these regulatory changes to withstand the test of time—and legal scrutiny,” said Kelly. Any changes to regulatory policy will be met with legal challenges, which will delay their benefits for manufacturers.

• The new administration needs to do everything by the book and carefully follow recent pronouncements in administrative law, or its policies will not survive, Kelly warned.
• Conducting robust cost-benefit analysis, soliciting public input and tying its actions to congressional mandates will all help the administration make its policies stick, she advised.

The legal hurdles: The big developments overshadowing this round of regulatory reform include the Supreme Court’s Loper Bright decision, which freed courts from deferring to agencies’ interpretations of statutes. Instead, the courts themselves must decide on the “best reading of a statute.”

• When the Trump administration faces judges skeptical of regulatory rollbacks and no longer obligated to defer to agency interpretation, they must come armed with well-reasoned justifications supported by data and informed by the expertise of the regulated public.
• In many cases, the NAM can provide this expertise and crucial data through the rulemaking process, and the NAM Legal Center can help defend pro-manufacturing policies by intervening in litigation and filing amicus briefs.

Agencies in need: Another new requirement for the administration emerged from Ohio v. EPA, which strengthened the requirement that agencies meaningfully respond to objections to proposed rules raised during public comment periods.

• Here again, manufacturers will play a crucial role, said Kelly, offering agencies the evidence they need to support their policymaking.

The last word: “The Trump administration has to do its homework on the front end,” said Kelly, to survive the inevitable legal challenge that will follow its regulatory changes. “Manufacturers and the NAM Legal Center stand ready to help create a court-durable regulatory environment that enables innovation and prosperity.”

In his first few hours in office, President Trump outlined the broad contours of his “America First Trade Policy.” Among the primary objectives: to “reduce dependence on foreign nations for critical supply chains,” “promote investment and productivity” and “enhance our [n]ation’s industrial and technological advantages.”

Key takeaways: The president did not announce new tariffs. His executive order instructs key agencies to begin looking at underlying concerns about unfair or unbalanced trade, specific concerns regarding trade with China and matters related to economic security. The findings could form the basis for the administration’s choice of remedy, potentially leading to more tariffs and other policy measures.

• President Trump “is wasting no time in taking action to strengthen America’s hand on trade, and manufacturers appreciate his focus on combatting unfair practices that hurt American workers,” NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons wrote on Tuesday. 

What comes next:  Three comprehensive reports are due by agencies to the President by April 1. Issues to be investigated include:

• Persistent trade deficits;
• Unfair trade practices;
• Currency manipulation;
• Importation of counterfeit products and contraband;
• China’s compliance with the “Phase One” deal; and
• Review of the U.S. export control system.

Tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China: The EO tasks the Commerce Department with assessing unlawful migration and fentanyl flows from Canada, Mexico and China. The findings are also due April 1.

• Prior to that date, President Trump could issue a separate EO using international emergency powers. This would enable him to impose tariffs sooner.

Building on past success: The president cited the China Phase One deal, the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement and Section 232 tariffs as successful elements of his first-term agenda.

Expect USMCA review to kick into gear: The EO also instructs the United States Trade Representative to begin its public consultation processes in preparation for the six-year review of the USMCA and to assess the impacts of U.S. participation in the agreement.

The NAM’s view: Speaking to CTV from the Canadian Embassy on Inauguration Day, NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons said:

• “We are in a global economy, and we want to be able to produce as much as we can. We need the entire continent of North America to be able to do exactly that.”
• “The United States, Canada and Mexico—because of the USMCA that was negotiated and implemented a few years ago—has the opportunity to take on together some actions to thwart problematic, market-distorting practices that are coming out of other countries, specifically China.”

Related news: In another EO, the president pulled the U.S. out of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development global tax deal on the grounds that the agreement “allows extraterritorial jurisdiction over American income but also limits our nation’s ability to enact tax policies that serve the interests of American businesses and workers.”

President Trump has frequently emphasized his intention to remove burdensome regulations that weigh on manufacturers and other businesses. In his first day on the job, he took steps to set this rollback in motion. Here’s what manufacturers need to know.

Regulatory freeze: As most presidents do when they take office, President Trump imposed a freeze on new and in-process regulations.

• The freeze pauses any rules from the outgoing Biden administration that have been proposed but not finalized, finalized but not sent to the Federal Register or sent to the Federal Register but not published.
• The executive order also recommends that agencies delay the effective dates of any published-but-not-yet-effective Biden rules by at least 60 days, giving the administration time to decide whether to rescind or revise the rules.

Reinstating policies: President Trump also rescinded several of President Biden’s executive orders, reinstating policies that had been in place during Trump’s first term.

• Most prominently, President Trump undid President Biden’s rescission of his “one-in-two-out” policy, setting the stage for more reworked and repealed regulations than new rules in his second term.
• He also rescinded a Biden order that had reduced agencies’ obligations to seek public input on guidance documents, which agencies use to interpret regulations and give direction to regulated parties.

Establishing DOGE: President Trump also established the Department of Government Efficiency, which will “be dedicated to advancing the president’s 18-month DOGE agenda,” including modernizing technology and software, increasing efficiency and reducing the size of government.

• DOGE will play a role in implementing the president’s new hiring freeze: the new organization will have 90 days to work with the Office of Management and Budget and the Office of Personnel Management on a plan to reduce the size of the federal government’s workforce while the hiring freeze is ongoing.

The NAM says: “The regulatory burden facing manufacturers is sapping growth, costing the U.S. economy more than $3 trillion annually, with manufacturers shouldering $350 billion in annual regulatory costs. Small manufacturers—the backbone of our supply chain—are especially hard hit, with costs exceeding $50,000 per employee per year, or about $1 million for a 20-person shop,” said NAM Managing Vice President of Policy Chris Netram.

• “The NAM has already provided the new administration with more than three dozen regulatory actions to ease the regulatory burden on our industry.”
• “The NAM looks forward to working with the Administration to right-size the regulatory burden, providing smart, tailored rules that ensure the United States remains the best place in the world to build and create, fueling economic growth and strengthening our global competitiveness.”

President Trump’s flurry of executive orders also included major changes to immigration policy.

National emergency: President Trump declared a national emergency at the southern border, aiming to bolster border security and deter illegal entry into the country. Specific actions include:

• Building physical barriers, both temporary and permanent;
• Directing the Department of Homeland Security to deter illegal immigration and detain illegal immigrants until they can be removed swiftly from the country;
• Reinstating the “Remain in Mexico” policy; and
• Terminating the CBP One app, which is used to schedule border appointments and facilitate entry into the U.S.

Forceful intervention: Another EO directs the military to protect the sovereignty, territorial integrity and security of the U.S. and its borders.

• President Trump also defined the situation at the southern border as an “invasion,” effectively suspending the ability of individuals to apply for asylum.

Other actions: President Trump reinstated his 2017 border security EO that withholds federal funds from sanctuary cities while encouraging collaboration between federal and state agencies, steps up deportations and directs U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement to hire 10,000 immigration officers. He also restored a 2017 EO providing for “enhanced vetting” of refugees.

• President Trump also issued an EO on birthright citizenship, setting up legal challenges over his administration’s interpretation of the 14th Amendment.

The NAM says: “President Trump is right to make the border a first priority,” said NAM Managing Vice President of Policy Chris Netram. “Control of our borders is a national security imperative that provides certainty about the individuals in our country and ensures the rule of law is upheld.”

• “Even as we secure our borders, we must ensure that America remains a beacon of opportunity and innovation. Manufacturers welcome the opportunity to work with the Trump administration and Congress to fix our broken immigration system. America deserves a modern, well-functioning system for welcoming new people to the United States that helps drive our economy forward, meets our nation’s workforce needs and ensures that the United States remains the most innovative and prosperous country on the planet.”