News

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index ticked up 1.7 points to 100.3 in July, remaining above the 51-year average of 98. July’s increase stemmed primarily from an improvement in business conditions and reports that it was a good time to expand. Of the 10 components included in the index, six increased, two decreased and two stayed the same. Meanwhile, the Uncertainty Index rose eight points to 97, indicating a notable worsening of small business uncertainty and remaining well above the 51-year average (68) and the average since 2016 (80).

Labor quality ranked first in the list of concerns for small business owners in July, with 21% reporting it as the most important problem, up five points from June. On the other hand, fewer small business owners reported jobs they could not fill in July, down three points from June to 33%. Following the passage of the tax bill, taxes fell in the rankings of top small business concerns in July to second after being the top concern in June, with 17% reporting them as their most important problem, down two points from the month prior. Inflation and poor sales tied for third in the list of concerns, with 11% reporting it as a top concern.

A net 27% of small business owners reported raising compensation, down six points in July after jumping seven points in June. Meanwhile, just 17% of small business owners plan to increase compensation in the next three months, down two points from June. The cost of labor on inflation is easing, but profitability remains under pressure, with a net negative 22% reporting positive profit trends, the same percentage as in June. Of those reporting lower profits, 34% claimed weaker sales, 13% cited increased material costs and 11% claimed labor costs. A net 24% of small business owners planned price hikes in July, down five points from June but remaining above the average of net 13%. Meanwhile, 4% reported their last loan was harder to get than previous attempts, down one point from June, and a net 5% of owners reported paying a higher rate on their most recent loan, down four points from the prior month.

The outlook for general business conditions soared fourteen points to 36%, a very positive reading by historical standards. Additionally, the share of firms saying it is a good time to expand rose five points to 16% in July. With the Uncertainty Index at elevated levels, tariffs, inflation and geopolitical tensions all remain sources of doubt influencing hiring, pricing and investment decisions. Small businesses are hopeful that the next six months will provide some clarity to these issues, which would provide an incentive to invest.

U.S. import prices increased 0.4% in July, after slipping 0.1% in June, with both higher nonfuel and fuel prices driving the increase. Over the past year, import prices decreased 0.2%. Meanwhile, U.S. export prices ticked up 0.1% in July, with nonagricultural export prices driving the increase. Over the past year, export prices increased 2.2%.

In July, U.S. import prices for manufacturing rose just 0.2% over the year, but with significant divergences in prices across the industry. Petroleum and coal products manufacturing experienced the most significant over-the-year U.S. import price declines in July, falling 12.9%. On the other hand, the greatest yearly increase in U.S. import prices occurred in primary metal manufacturing, which rose 10.0% from July 2024. Meanwhile, U.S. export prices for manufacturing in July increased 2.8% over the year, with primary metal manufacturing export prices exhibiting the largest rise (26.3%).

Fuel import prices rose 2.7% over the month in July, following a 0.8% increase in June and a 5.0% decline in May. Higher prices for petroleum and natural gas drove the increase, rising 2.4% and 4.7%, respectively. Despite the over-the-month increase, prices for fuel imports plummeted 12.1% from July 2024. Import prices for petroleum fell 13.7% from last year. Meanwhile, natural gas prices jumped 62.2% over the year.

Nonfuel import prices increased 0.3% in July, following a 0.3% decrease in June. Higher prices for nonfuel industrial supplies and materials, consumer goods and capital goods more than offset lower prices for automotive vehicles and foods, feeds and beverages. The price index for nonfuel imports grew 0.9% over the past year and has not declined on a year-over-year basis since February 2024.

After rising 0.8% in June, agricultural export prices stayed the same in July. Over the past 12 months, agricultural export prices increased 3.4%. Meanwhile, nonagricultural export prices inched up 0.1% in July. Higher prices for capital goods, consumer goods and automotive vehicles more than offset lower prices for nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials. Over the past year, nonagricultural export prices advanced 2.0%.

Manufacturing activity in New York state grew modestly in August. The headline general business activity index strengthened from July, rising 6.4 points to 11.9. Meanwhile, the new orders and shipments indexes also increased, to 15.4 from -2.0 and 12.2 from 11.5, respectively. Unfilled orders improved slightly but remained negative, rising from -6.4 to -5.5, while delivery times lengthened from 8.3 to 17.4. Inventories declined notably, plunging from 15.6 to -6.4, but supply availability improved, rising from -11.0 to -5.5.

The index for the number of employees declined from 9.2 to 4.4, while the average employee workweek was relatively unchanged at 0.2. Input prices fell from 56.0 to 54.1, while selling prices also moderated slightly, edging down 2.8 to 22.9 points, a reflection of a slower pace of increase for prices received and prices paid.

Looking forward, firms’ expectations worsened but remained positive. The index for future business activity decreased 8.1 points to 16.0. In the next six months, new orders and shipments are still expected to increase, but at a slightly slower pace than anticipated last month, clocking in at 16.3 and 17.9, respectively. On the other hand, capital spending plans returned to negative territory, falling 10.1 points to -0.9.

Employment expectations remained but declined from 11.0 to 6.9, while the average employee workweek outlook strengthened, rising from -0.9 to 0. Input prices are expected to climb higher, rising from 58.7 to 64.2. On the other hand, selling price expectations ticked down 0.9 points to 41.3. Meanwhile, supply availability is still forecasted to contract in the next six months but at a slower pace than predicted in July.

Industrial production edged down 0.1% in July, while manufacturing output stayed the same as June. At 100.2% of its 2017 average, manufacturing production in July rose 1.4% from the same month last year. Capacity utilization for manufacturing dipped to 76.8%, down 0.1 percentage points from June but increased 1.2% over the past year. Capacity remains 1.4 percentage points below its long-term average from 1972 to 2024.

In July, major market groups posted mixed results. Consumer goods production increased 0.1%, while business equipment output rose 0.5%. Among consumer goods, the production of automotive products advanced 0.7%, while the index for appliances, furniture and carpeting decreased 1.5%. Among business equipment, the gain was supported by a 1.8% and 0.3% rise in the index for transit equipment and industrial and other equipment, respectively. On the other hand, the indexes for nonindustrial supplies and materials both declined 0.3%, led by a 2.0% decline in textile materials in July.

Durable goods manufacturing rose 0.3% in July and 2.7% from the year prior. Monthly growth was greatest for aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment (1.7%), while primary metals, machinery and motor vehicles and parts posted the largest declines at 0.3% each. Meanwhile, led by a 2.1% drop in textile and product mills output, nondurable goods manufacturing decreased 0.4% in July but rose 0.6% from July 2024.

The Producer Price Index for final demand (also known as wholesale prices) surged 0.9% over the month in July, the largest monthly jump since March 2022, after prices stayed the same in June. Over the year, producer prices moved up 3.3% in July, up from the 2.4% hike in June. Meanwhile, prices for final demand excluding foods, energy and trade services increased 0.6% over the month in July, after staying the same in June. Prices for these goods advanced 2.8% from July 2024.

Within final demand, prices for services advanced 1.1% in July, accounting for more than three-quarters of the headline increase. Meanwhile, prices for goods rose 0.7%. Over half of the increase in prices for services is attributed to a 2.0% rise in margins for trade services, indicating companies are absorbing a smaller percentage of those higher costs. Meanwhile, 40% of the increase in goods arose from the 1.4% gain in foods. Within the final demand goods index, prices for industrial material handling equipment climbed 0.6% over the month and 6.0% from July 2024. In addition, prices for private capital equipment for manufacturing industries jumped 4.4% over the year, the largest yearly increase since September 2023.

Processed goods for intermediate demand rose 0.8% in July, the largest rate of increase since January. Over half of the rise can be attributed to an 11.8% gain in the diesel fuel index. Meanwhile, the index for processed foods and feeds fell 0.1%. Over the year, the index grew 2.1%, the largest 12-month increase since the 2.1% rise in February 2023.

Meanwhile, prices for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand advanced 1.8% in July, after rising 2.6% in June. Nearly two-thirds of the July gain can be traced to a 2.9% hike in the prices for unprocessed foodstuffs and feedstuffs. Additionally, prices for unprocessed nonfood materials less energy rose 2.0

In July, consumer prices increased 0.2% over the month and 2.7% over the year, the same as the annual rise in June. Core CPI, which excludes more volatile energy and food prices, rose 0.3% over the month and 3.1% over the year, slightly higher than the 2.9% 12-month increase in the month prior.

Energy costs fell 1.1% over the month in July, after rising 0.9% in June, and declined 1.6% over the year. Within the energy index, gasoline prices plunged 2.2% from June, after increasing 1.0% the month prior, and declined 9.5% from July 2024. Meanwhile, electricity and utility (piped) gas prices dipped 0.1% and 0.9%, respectively, over the month, but surged 5.5% and 13.8% over the year.

In July, food prices stayed the same as June, with prices for food at home edging down 0.1%. On the other hand, food prices rose 2.9% over the year, with food at home advancing 2.2%. Meanwhile, prices for food away from home climbed 0.3% from June and 3.9% from July 2024. The indexes for major grocery store food groups were mixed, with two increasing, three decreasing and one staying the same.

The shelter index grew 0.2% over the month and 3.7% over the year, dipping slightly from the 3.8% 12-month increase in June. Meanwhile, prices for transportation services soared 0.8% over the month and 3.5% over the year, with airline fares leading the monthly increase, rising 4.0% from June. Motor vehicle maintenance and repair led the over the year increase, surging 6.5% from July 2024.

Both the headline inflation rate and core inflation rate have ticked up slightly from last year in recent months, but likely not enough to deter Federal Reserve officials from cutting their interest rate target later this year, particularly since weakness in the labor market has increased in recent months. Therefore, markets anticipate that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its interest rate target by 25 basis points at its meeting next month.

Toyota has provided its manufacturing team members with high-quality childcare options for decades. This week, it announced a major expansion in its offerings, revealing plans for four new childcare centers for parents working at plants in North Carolina, Mississippi, Alabama and West Virginia.

How it works: The centers, which will all open by 2027, will be managed by third-party childcare providers and offer schedules that align with plant operations, so that team members can go to work confident that their children are well looked after.

• “At Toyota, we know it is paramount for working parents to have access to quality childcare, and manufacturing is not always a nine-to-five job,” said Denita Neville, vice president of Toyota’s corporate shared services.
• “Offering childcare motivates and empowers our team members, makes our industry more inclusive and helps our smallest learners of today become our biggest leaders of tomorrow.”

A long history: These four new centers will join two other facilities that have been in operation for years.

• Toyota’s Georgetown, Kentucky, plant has offered round-the-clock childcare since way back in 1993. Its Indiana center is also well-established, having opened its doors in 2003, and is undergoing an expansion that will be completed this September. (Check out our previous article on these centers here.)

• All of Toyota’s sites are or will be accredited by the National Association for the Education of Young Children, which establishes standards for high-quality childcare.

Other offerings: Toyota also provides other childcare options, partnering with Bright Horizons to help team members find regular childcare and backup options for emergency care, among other services.

Rave reviews: “As a working mom, it’s been such a relief to have childcare that supports my work schedule,” said Patricia Pastrana Arroyo, a group leader at Toyota Indiana, said about the Indiana center.

• “The early education program is exceptional. The teachers are nurturing, attentive and genuinely caring toward each child. They keep parents informed with daily reports, pictures and updates, which helps me feel connected to my son even when I’m not there.”

Partnering with the MI: As an active partner of the Manufacturing Institute, the NAM’s workforce development and education affiliate, Toyota has contributed to the MI’s efforts to bolster the manufacturing industry’s childcare offerings.

• Mazda Toyota Manufacturing, a joint venture between Mazda Motor Corporation and Toyota Motor Corporation, helped the MI formulate its influential whitepaper about childcare in the industry, “Flexibility Approaches for Manufacturing Production Workers,” which found that companies that provided workers with the flexibility to meet personal obligations, such as child care, reported greater success.
• Toyota also participated in an MI panel for manufacturing workforce leaders interested in expanding their own companies’ benefits.

The last word: “Toyota’s investment in childcare sets a powerful example of how manufacturers can meet the real needs of their workforce,” said MI President and Executive Director Carolyn Lee.

• “Access to quality, flexible childcare not only supports working parents, it strengthens our industry’s ability to attract and retain talent. By removing one of the biggest hurdles to workforce participation, Toyota is helping to ensure that more people can build meaningful, long-term careers in manufacturing.”

​​​​​​The Trump administration has announced new funding for critical minerals projects in the U.S., seeking to award nearly $1 billion to key projects (Politico).

• In announcing the new funding, Energy Secretary Chris Wright “cited a March executive order that tapped a range of agencies for efforts to boost minerals production in announcing the award plans.”

How it works: The funding comes in part from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Act, one of manufacturers’ and the NAM’s many policy victories over the past five years.

• “The largest pot of funding, up to $500 million, comes from the Battery Materials Processing and Battery Manufacturing and Recycling grant program, which was established by the bipartisan infrastructure law,” according to Politico.
• “DOE said Wednesday its Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management also plans to award up to $250 million under the Energy Act of 2020 and the infrastructure law for industrial facilities to pilot initiatives to produce critical minerals as byproducts from their existing processes.”

Rare earths: Also notable is the $135 million in funding that the Office of Manufacturing and Energy Supply Chains will award to rare earths demonstration projects.

Concerted efforts: The NAM has urged President Trump to support critical minerals projects since his election, and the administration has been swift to act.

• As NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons said in response to the March EO, “For too long, red tape and burdensome regulations have stood in the way of the basic building blocks that power manufacturing in the United States, especially mining and processing the minerals manufacturers rely on to create jobs and dominate on the world stage.”
• “The administration is addressing those barriers, making it easier for manufacturers to access the resources we need to build the future in America.”

The Manufacturing Institute—the workforce development and education affiliate of the NAM—announced that Novonesis, a global leader in biosolutions, will serve as the platinum sponsor for MFG Day 2025, an initiative of the MI.

What it means: Novonesis will host the MI’s MFG Day event on Oct. 2 at their North American headquarters in Franklinton, North Carolina.

• In addition, Novonesis sites across the country will host other events in honor of MFG Day, a monthlong celebration of manufacturing excellence during which students, parents and educators can explore the industry’s many exciting career paths.
• Hundreds of other companies throughout the U.S. will join Novonesis and the MI in this celebration, hosting events that highlight a vast array of industry sectors, job types, educational opportunities and much more.

What they’ll see: Novonesis will welcome 200 local high school students, key educational institutions and biotech partners on Oct. 2, as well as state and national leadership for an in-depth, behind-the-scenes look at Novonesis’s laboratories and production facility.

• These visitors will get to see scientists developing biosolutions for use in food, fuel, household products, supplements, animal health and nutrition, agriculture and more.

What we’re saying: “As an innovative biomanufacturer, Novonesis is a perfect company to headline MFG Day. Its state-of-the-art labs and facilities showcase everything modern manufacturing has to offer as a career path,” said MI President and Executive Director Carolyn Lee.

• “In a study  co-written by MI and Deloitte last year, we found that the manufacturing sector will have more than 3.8 million job openings by 2033. This shortage is an existential threat to our industry. MFG Day is an opportunity for our industry to start building the workforce of tomorrow by educating students about rewarding career opportunities that they might not otherwise consider.”
• “We thank Novonesis for showing students everything our sector has to offer by opening its doors and inspiring students—not just in North Carolina, but nationwide.”

A long history: Manufacturers have been opening their doors on MFG Day since 2012, in one of the industry’s foremost efforts to attract and shape the next generation of talent.

• By stepping inside manufacturing facilities, students experience—up close and in action—what modern manufacturing really looks like.
• Last year, MFG Day boasted more than 700 registered events nationwide, inspiring thousands of students to imagine themselves in a wide range of creative, high-tech careers.

The last word: “The future of manufacturing—and biomanufacturing in particular—depends on our ability to inspire and prepare the next generation for the high-tech, high-impact careers ahead,” said Tue Micheelsen, Novonesis North America president and head of global consumer health.

• “For decades, Novonesis has helped strengthen America’s manufacturing workforce by supporting STEM education, advancing training programs like BioWork, and creating hands-on learning opportunities that connect talent with real-world applications.”
• “Through Manufacturing Day, we’re opening our doors to students and communities across the country to spark curiosity, challenge outdated perceptions, and show that the innovations shaping the world can start in their own backyards. These efforts aren’t just about building a pipeline of skilled workers. They’re about helping the U.S. lead the future of biomanufacturing.”

Manufacturers are hard at work on next-generation nuclear reactors and getting ready to scale up nuclear enrichment activities, but challenges lie in their way (POLITICO’s ENERGYWIRE).

What’s going on: Though it made sense at the time, the privatization of the United States Enrichment Corporation in the years following the Cold War (done due to “the anticipation that the U.S. would always have access to foreign enrichment supplies”) is now putting the American uranium enrichment market and reactor development at a disadvantage.

• This presents a problem given the U.S. ban on Russian uranium imports due to the Ukraine war.
• To shore up the American nuclear industry, the Energy Department “has started to pull startup nuclear companies into the uranium enrichment business.”
• Just this month, California-based General Matter announced that it would construct an enrichment facility in Kentucky on the site of a former U.S. government enrichment plant, saying it “can produce at a lower cost the type of enriched uranium sought out by developers of advanced nuclear reactors.”

A changing tide: In 2023, the Maryland-based Centrus Energy (U.S. Enrichment’s name since 2014), made its first batch of high-assay, low-enriched uranium, or HALEU, which is the fuel needed for next-generation nuclear reactor designs.

• “With Centrus’ inaugural batch and plans to expand their centrifuge cascade, the U.S. might yet break Russia’s de facto monopoly on advanced reactor fuel.”

Challenges: Scaling up Centrus’ Ohio enrichment site will necessitate billions in investment dollars, as well as “a [high] level of sustained political backing,” according to ENERGYWIRE.

• Another hurdle: the relatively weak market signals for HALEU, said former Nuclear Regulatory Commission Chair Dale Klein, who noted “that North America doesn’t yet have any commercial reactors operating that would use HALEU. That’s a problem for the dozen-plus entities planning to build [next-generation] reactors.”
• “It is a chicken and egg,” Klein told the news outlet. “The fuel enrichers are not going to make the fuel unless they know they’ve got a market.”

Moving forward: But Centrus is ready to get to work on enrichment, it told ENERGYWIRE.

• “Our facility is already licensed. We’ve secured $2 billion in customer contracts. As soon as federal funding is awarded, we’ll pair it with private dollars and get to work,” Centrus Vice President of Corporate Communications Dan Leistikow said.
• “Centrus offers a fully American solution: proven U.S. technology, built by American workers.”