News

Allowing crucial pro-manufacturing tax provisions to expire will be devastating for the U.S. economy, according to a landmark EY study released today by the NAM.
 
What’s going on: “Pro-growth tax policies from President Trump’s 2017 tax reforms were rocket fuel for manufacturers and made the U.S. economy more competitive on a global scale,” NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons said.

But in 2022, key provisions began to expire—and additional tax reform measures are scheduled to sunset at the end of this year. If Congress doesn’t preserve these pro-growth policies, the U.S. economy will face dire consequences:

• Nearly 6 million jobs will be put at risk.
• Approximately $540 billion in employee compensation will be lost.
• U.S. GDP will be reduced by $1.1 trillion.

Manufacturing impact: The manufacturing industry will bear the brunt of this economic damage, according to the study.

• More than 1.1 million manufacturing jobs and $126 billion in manufacturing worker wages are on the line if Congress does not preserve critical pro-manufacturing policies from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.  

The onus is on Congress: “It is the responsibility of Congress to act quickly so we can protect Americans’ livelihoods, prevent wage decreases and avoid the largest tax hike in history,” said House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA).
 
Critical players: The U.S. economy relies heavily on manufacturers, which in turn rely on competitive tax policy—and that makes these provisions’ renewal crucial, said Johnson & Johnson Executive Vice President and Chief Technical Operations & Risk Officer and NAM Board Chair Kathy Wengel.

• “[M]anufacturers—both large and small—drive innovation, create opportunity and strengthen communities across the country. … Maintaining competitive tax policy is essential to sustaining this momentum.”   

What we’re doing: The NAM continues its advocacy blitz following the study’s release.

• This morning, Courtney Silver, president and owner of North Carolina–based precision machining company Ketchie and immediate past chair of the NAM’s Small and Medium Manufacturers Group, is testifying at a House Ways and Means Committee hearing on the need to make pro-manufacturing TCJA reforms permanent.
• At 4:30 p.m. EST today, the NAM will hold a press conference on Capitol Hill announcing the study’s launch. Speakers will include Timmons, Speaker Johnson, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA), House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO) and Senate Finance Committee Chairman Mike Crapo (R-ID). Watch live here.

New orders for manufactured goods fell 0.4% in November, after falling for three of the past four months. When excluding transportation, new orders edged up 0.2%. Orders for durable goods dropped -1.2% after rising 0.7% in October. Year to date, durable goods orders are down 1.3%. Nondurable goods ticked up 0.4% in November after increasing 0.2% in October. Nondurable goods orders are up 1.4% year to date.

New orders for photographic equipment experienced the greatest increase of any industry at 19.0%, while ship and boat transportation had the largest over-the-month decrease of 13.6%. The largest over-the-year changes occurred in nondefense aircraft and parts (down 34.3%) and computers (up 19.7%).

Factory shipments increased 0.1% in November, after falling 0.2% in October. Shipments excluding transportation edged up 0.4%, above the 0.2% increase the previous month. Shipments for durable goods declined 0.2% in November, falling for the three previous months, but are up 1.6% year to date. Meanwhile, nondurable goods shipments inched up 0.4% in November and are up 1.4% year to date.

Unfilled orders for all manufacturing and durable goods industries rose 0.3% in November, following a 0.5% increase in October. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio for durable goods increased to 7.07 from 7.04 in October. Inventories rose 0.3%, while the inventories-to-shipments ratio edged up to 1.47 from 1.46 in October.

In November, job openings for manufacturing dropped by 56,000 to 412,000, with the decrease entirely concentrated in durable goods. The manufacturing job openings rate fell 0.4% to 3.1% in November and declined from 4.1% the previous year. The rate for durable goods manufacturing decreased from 3.8% to 3.1%, while it stayed the same at 3.0% for nondurable goods.

In the larger economy, the number of job openings rose to 8.1 million, an increase of 259,000 from the previous month but a decrease of 833,000 from the previous year. The job openings rate increased to 4.8%, up from 4.7% in October, but declined from 5.4% last year. While this data reflects an overall labor market that remains solid despite cooling over the past year, it also exhibits continued weakness for the manufacturing industry.

The number of hires in the overall economy fell to 5.3 million from 5.4 million in October and dropped 300,000 from the previous year. The hires rate decreased 0.1% to 3.3%. Meanwhile, the hires rate for manufacturing declined 0.3% to 2.2%. The hires rate for durable goods fell to 1.8%, while it fell to 2.9% for nondurable goods.

Total separations, which includes quits, layoffs, discharges and other separations, fell 180,000 from October to 5.1 million and dropped 287,000 from the previous year. The total separations rate slipped 0.1% to 3.2% and declined to 2.4% from 2.7% for manufacturing. Within that rate, layoffs and discharges edged down by 2,000 in November for manufacturing, while quits decreased by 24,000. The quit and layoff rates continue to remain lower for manufacturing than the total nonfarm sector.

Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 256,000 in December, blowing past the expectation of 155,000. October’s job gain was revised upward by 7,000 jobs to 43,000, while November’s job gain was revised downward by 15,000 to 212,000. The 12-month average stands at 186,000 job gains per month. The unemployment rate ticked down 0.1% to 4.1%, while the labor force participation rate stayed the same at 62.5%.

Manufacturing employment fell by 13,000, after the November gain of 25,000 jobs didn’t fully recoup the 52,000 jobs lost in October. For a second consecutive month, the most significant losses in manufacturing in December occurred in computer and electronic products, which shed 6,200 jobs over the month.

The employment-population ratio rose 0.2% to 60.0% but is down a slight 0.1 percentage point from a year ago. Employed persons who are part-time workers for economic reasons decreased by 111,000 to 4.36 million but are up from 4.22 million in December 2023. Native-born employment is down 68,000 over the month and 198,000 over the year. Meanwhile, foreign-born employment is also down over the month but up 342,000 over the year.

Average hourly earnings for all private nonfarm payroll employees rose 0.3%, or 10 cents, reaching $35.69. Over the past year, earnings have grown 3.9%. The average workweek for all employees stayed the same at 34.3 hours in December.

The outgoing Biden administration is undermining a U.S. manufacturer in its high-stakes dispute with the Mexican government by “seeking to erode investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) protections under U.S. trade agreements with Colombia, Mexico and Canada,” a recent Wall Street Journal (subscription) editorial revealed.

The problem: ISDS protections safeguard U.S. investments from foreign governments seeking to interfere with or appropriate them, as the predicament of Vulcan Materials Company shows.

• Vulcan has been embroiled in a dispute with the Mexican government since 2018, when the government shut down some of its quarrying operations, according to Chairman and CEO J. Thomas Hill.
• The unwarranted shutdown forced the company to pursue arbitration under NAFTA, but the situation only got worse—former Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador ordered all of Vulcan’s operations to cease in May 2022, including at a deepwater port the company built in the early 1990s.
• Now, the company is expecting its second round of arbitration to be decided by mid-2025—unless the Biden administration guts the investor protections in the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement, handing a victory (and a key port) to the Mexican government.

Congressional fury: Both Congress and Vulcan itself learned of the administration’s efforts via The Wall Street Journal editorial, instead of directly from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. This is particularly egregious because the USTR is required to consult with Congress on investment obligations in trade deals.

• Bipartisan members of Congress have expressed their outrage, with Sen. Katie Britt (R-AL) writing in The Wall Street Journal (subscription) that “the Biden administration is negotiating away the due process of Americans, including my constituents, in the waning days of this lame-duck administration.”
• On Dec. 20, three bipartisan senators joined Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-TN) in condemning the USTR’s efforts on the Senate floor. “If Mexico is allowed to target, without repercussion, a company like Vulcan, one that employs thousands of Americans, and has operated responsibly in Mexico for decades, that means no American business is safe in Mexico,” Sen. Hagerty said.
• Sens. Tim Kaine (D-VA) and Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) joined both Sens. Britt and Hagerty in calling on Congress to pass the Defending American Property Abroad Act, which would impose penalties on Western Hemisphere countries that unlawfully seize the assets of American firms.

The NAM says: The NAM is calling on the USTR to halt this effort immediately, said NAM Vice President of International Policy Andrea Durkin.

• “ISDS has a legitimate role in U.S. trade policy to ensure our manufacturers receive fair and equitable treatment by foreign governments and to protect against egregious expropriation or nationalization of U.S. investments without adequate and effective compensation.”
• “U.S. manufacturers are entitled—at a minimum—to be consulted about any proposed changes that would impact their right to due process in ongoing cases.”

The Biden administration’s ban on new offshore oil and gas drilling in most American coastal waters “sets a bad precedent for the country,” the NAM said Monday.

What’s going on: The decision, which comes just two weeks before President Trump takes office, applies to “new drilling off the entire East Coast, as well as California, Oregon and Washington state” and “some drilling off Alaska’s coast in portions of the Northern Bering Sea and in the eastern Gulf of Mexico” (The Hill).

• Though there is currently no active drilling in the Atlantic and most U.S. offshore oil and gas production comes from the central and western Gulf of Mexico, the area placed under the ban is the largest ever “formally taken off the table for drilling by a president.”
• In response, President Trump on Monday said he would “unban it immediately” (Associated Press).

Why it’s a problem: The moratorium could prove harder for Trump to undo than other 11th-hour moves by Biden. That’s in large part because of the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act, which gives U.S. presidents the right to block drilling in certain areas but not the right to reinstate it.

• However, Congress could work with the new president to undo the move—and it should, Timmons said. “Manufacturers are committed to working with Congress and [President Trump] to scale back this harmful decision that undermines American energy dominance.”

Several last-minute regulatory actions by the outgoing Biden Treasury Department are “clear example[s] of regulatory overreach” that should be withdrawn immediately, the NAM told the Biden administration recently.

What’s going on: The Treasury Department has proposed new guidance and regulations that, if finalized, would change the IRS’s treatment of related-party transactions, particularly as they relate to partnerships.

• The proposed standards would impose significant reporting obligations on manufacturers while also drastically changing the tax treatment of these commonplace payments.
• Additionally, Treasury has proposed new rules governing “dual consolidated losses” that would make it more difficult for manufacturers operating in multiple jurisdictions around the world to utilize their tax losses appropriately.

Why it’s problematic: The proposed standards are outside Treasury’s statutory authority and are “unlikely to withstand inevitable judicial scrutiny,” the NAM told the agency at the end of 2024.

• In December, the NAM laid out the legal issues endemic to Treasury’s proposals, identifying both substantive and process-related issues that undermine each action.
• The submission builds on manufacturers’ comments to the agency on the proposals themselves: The NAM said in July that the related-party guidance was “wholly unauthorized, unsupported and unsupportable” and in August told the agency that the related-party rules “would impose an undue burden on taxpayers that outweighs any potential compliance benefit.”
• It added in October that the dual consolidated loss proposal was “internally inconsistent” and “fail[ed] to reflect reasoned decision-making.”

Regulatory onslaught: The NAM has been at the forefront of pushing back on the Biden administration’s regulatory onslaught, which costs manufacturers upward of $350 billion every year.

• Shortly after the 2024 presidential election, the NAM led a group of more than 100 manufacturing associations in urging the incoming Trump administration to “address burdensome regulations that are stifling investment, making us less competitive in the world, limiting innovation and threatening the very jobs we are all working to create right here in America.”

What’s next: The NAM is calling on the Biden Treasury Department not to finalize these proposals in the administration’s final days, but rather to pause or withdraw the rules in question until the Trump administration takes office.
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In October, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index recorded a 3.6% annual gain, down from 3.9% in September. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 4.8% in October, a decrease from 5.2% in September, while the 20-City Composite rose 4.2% year-over-year, down from 4.6%. Among the 20 cities, New York again posted the highest annual gain at 7.3%, followed by Chicago at 6.2% and Las Vegas at 5.9%. Tampa exhibited the lowest annual increase at 0.4%.

On a month-over-month basis, the U.S. National Index dropped 0.2% before seasonal adjustment but increased 0.3% after adjustment. The 20-City and 10-City Composites saw 0.2% and 0.1% decreases pre-adjustment, while both rose 0.3% post-adjustment.

The National Index is at a 17th consecutive all-time high, and only Tampa and Cleveland fell during the past month. Moreover, the National Index continued to improve following the election, indicating that less political uncertainty has led to an equity market rally.

In December, U.S. manufacturing remained in contraction, with output decreasing at the fastest pace in 18 months. The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.4 in December from 49.7 in November, slightly below the 50 threshold that indicates a contraction in the sector. This suggests manufacturing conditions deteriorated to a greater extent than the previous month but still only at a modest rate overall.

After nearly stabilizing in November, the rate of decline in new orders increased sharply in December, with customers reluctant to commit to new projects. Production levels falling for a fifth consecutive month at an increased rate generally reflected the drop in new orders. New export orders also declined and to a greater extent than overall new business, as Europe and Australia reported weaker demand.

In addition, business confidence pared back some in December after jumping in November. Nonetheless, employment continued to rise modestly as firms anticipate the incoming administration will improve demand conditions, providing a boost to business in 2025.

Although respondents felt more optimistic due to the election result, firms expressed increased worries about inflation as input costs increased sharply. As a result, manufacturers were prompted to increase their output prices again. Meanwhile, suppliers’ delivery times lengthened to the greatest extent since October 2022, linked to staff shortages at suppliers and freight delays.

In December, the global manufacturing sector fell back into contraction to 49.6 after activity had stabilized in November. Four of the five PMI components were at levels consistent with deterioration, as output and new orders registered declines after meager growth the month prior, and supplier delivery times lengthened. Manufacturing output declined modestly in December, and with marginal gains in October and November, production stagnated in Q4.

The shift from stabilization back to contraction is reflective of downturns in the U.S. and U.K., hitting 18- and 11-month records, respectively. On the other hand, Greece and Spain posted solid performances, contrasting the deep downturn in the rest of the Eurozone, France and Germany in particular. The fastest growth occurred in India and the Philippines compared to other surveyed countries.

Data broken down by sector exhibited lower output in the intermediate and investment goods industries. However, the consumer goods sector rose for the 17th consecutive month. In the same vein, new orders also increased for intermediate and investment goods, which was only partly offset by growth in new orders for consumer goods.

In December, manufacturing employment declined for the fifth consecutive month but at a slightly slower rate than the prior month. Job cuts were reported in the Eurozone and China, while the U.S. and Japan registered employment growth. Input inflationary pressures picked up to a four-month high, while output cost inflation eased to a nine-month low. As a result, confidence remained subdued, with optimism dropping to a three-month low.