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U.S. import prices advanced 0.1% in November, the same as the previous month and led by higher fuel prices. Over the past year, import prices rose 1.3%, the largest year-over-year increase since July 2024. U.S. export prices were unchanged, following a 1.0% increase in October. Higher nonagricultural prices offset lower agricultural prices. Over the past year, export prices rose 0.8%.

Fuel import prices increased 1.0% in November, after declining 0.8% in October. These increases are attributed to higher prices for natural gas and petroleum in November. Nevertheless, prices for import fuel declined 8.6% over the past year. Import prices for petroleum increased 0.4% in November, after declining 11.6% from July to October. While import prices for natural gas declined 34.5% over the past year, prices increased 47.4% in November and 32.7% the previous month.

Nonfuel import prices were unchanged in November, following a 0.2% increase the two previous months. Nonfuel import prices have not declined on a monthly basis since May 2024, when they fell just 0.2%. Higher prices for foods, feeds and beverages and consumer goods offset lower prices for nonfuel industrial supplies and materials, capital goods and automotive vehicles in November. The price index for nonfuel imports increased 2.3% over the past year.

Following increases of 1.9% in October and 0.8% in September, agricultural export prices declined 0.4% in November. Over the past 12 months, agricultural export prices dropped 2.5%. On the other hand, nonagricultural export prices increased 0.1% in November, with lower prices for consumer goods offsetting higher prices for capital goods and nonagricultural foods. Prices for nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials and automotive vehicles were unchanged. Over the past year, nonagricultural export prices rose 1.2%, the largest annual increase since July 2024.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose eight points in November to 101.7, the highest rating since June 2021 and finally rising above the 50-year average of 98 after 34 consecutive months below the average. Of the 10 components included in the index, nine increased and one was unchanged. After October’s record high of 110, the Uncertainty Index declined 12 points to 98, as expected following the election.

Despite increased optimism, inflation is still the top concern for many small business owners, with 20% identifying higher input and labor costs as their primary issue, surpassing the issue of labor quality by one point. In November, 36% of small business owners reported jobs they could not fill, up 1% from October.

A net 28% of small business owners planned price hikes in November, up 2% from the month prior. A net 32% of small business owners reported raising compensation, up one point from October. Continuing the trend from October, a net 5% of owners reported paying a higher rate on their most recent loan, the lowest reading since January 2022. Profitability remained under pressure, with a net negative 26%, but was the highest (least negative) reading this year. Of those reporting lower profits, 32% claimed weaker sales.

The outlook for general business conditions had a positive reading for the first time since November 2020, jumping an incredible 41 points. While small business owners are still facing unprecedented economic adversity, owners remain hopeful for an improved political climate and as they head into the holiday season.

The Producer Price Index for final demand (also known as wholesale prices) increased 0.4% in November, after rising 0.3% in October. Over the past year, the final demand index rose 3.0% on an unadjusted basis, which is the largest increase since the year-over-year increase in February 2023 of 4.7%. Prices for final demand excluding foods, energy and trade services inched up 0.1%, after rising 0.3% in October.

In November, prices for final demand services increased 0.2%, the fourth consecutive increase, while prices for final demand goods rose just 0.7%. Much of the increase in the index can be attributed to prices for final demand of foods, which increased 3.1%. The index for final demand goods, excluding foods and energy, increased just 0.2%. More than one-third of the increase in prices for final demand services is due to margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling, increasing 1.8%.

Processed goods for intermediate demand were unchanged. On the other hand, over the 12 months ending in November, prices for processed goods for intermediate demand fell 0.5%. Within processed goods for intermediate demand, the index for particleboard and fiberboard jumped 11.4%. Overall, in November, a 0.1% increase in prices for processed materials less foods and energy and a 0.9% increase in processed foods and feeds offset a 1.2% decrease in prices for processed energy goods.

Meanwhile, prices for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand moved up 0.6% in November, after increasing 2.4% in October. The increase was driven by a 2.9% rise in unprocessed foodstuffs and feedstuffs. Meanwhile, nonfood materials less energy prices edged up just 0.4%, and unprocessed energy materials decreased 2.0%. Over the 12 months ending in November, prices for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand fell 1.9%.

Consumer prices increased 0.3% over the month and 2.7% over the year in November, rising from the 2.6% over-the-year increase in October. Core CPI, which excludes more volatile energy and food prices, stayed the same at a 3.3% over-the-year increase and rose 0.3% over the month, which has been the monthly increase for four consecutive months.

Shelter increased 0.3% over the month and 4.7% over the year in November, the smallest 12-month increase since February 2022 but still accounted for nearly 40% of the monthly increase of the all-items index. On the other hand, food price increases have picked back up, rising 0.4% over the month and 2.4% over the year in November. Prices for transportation services leveled out over the month, not rising at all, but are still up 7.1% over the year, with motor vehicle insurance increasing 12.7% over the year.

Energy costs increased 0.2% in November but fell 3.2% over the year. While energy commodity prices are down 8.5% over the year, electricity prices are up 3.1%.

Although the over-the-year headline rate ticked up from the previous month, markets are still anticipating a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting this week. However, slowing progress on inflation might upend the Federal Reserve’s previous easing plans for 2025, pointing to the possibility of the FOMC’s interest rate target being cut at a slower pace, but the market still anticipates rate cuts in 2025.

At Milo’s Tea, every element of the company’s delicious beverages is scrutinized for sustainability opportunities—from bottle-sourcing to the water and tea leaves that go into each gallon.

The bottles: The Bessemer, Alabama–based business recently opened a new, one-gallon bottle-blowing facility in its hometown, right next to its distribution center.

• The new facility will reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 1,000 metric tons per year, since it will eliminate the need for trucks to travel from farther-off bottling locations to the Bessemer distribution facility.

• “We’re still family-held, and sustainability is a family value, too,” said Chief Operating Officer Chris Droney. “When you have a project like this, that has a positive environmental impact and allows us to reinvest in our company growth, that’s a win–win.”

The water: The 78-year-old Milo’s Tea—which in 2022 became the top-selling refrigerated tea brand in the U.S. and is the fastest-growing refrigerated lemonade brand—has a strong track record of environmental resource preservation, starting with its water conservation.

• Since 2019, Milo’s has conserved nearly 37 million gallons of water, an achievement that has helped earn the certified woman-owned business two Platinum TRUE Zero Waste certifications (one for its Bessemer plant and another for its Tulsa, Oklahoma, facility).
• Among other measures, the company has invested in new, more water-efficient line-cleaning (clean-in-place) technology, which it uses between production runs to clean the brew, blend and filler equipment. “If we’re going from making sweet tea to zero-calorie tea, for example, it’s very important to make sure there’s no residue” in the lines, Droney explained.
• The enhanced equipment reduces energy, water and cleaning agent consumption, while also improving the effectiveness of the cleaning cycle. Milo’s made additional improvements to the production scheduling process, which decreased the total number of cleaning cycles required and further reduced energy, water and cleaning agent consumption.
• Milo’s was also able to reduce the amount of excess product the company had in its tanks during those flavor switchovers, further reducing waste and water use.

The tea: Milo’s earned its Oklahoma Zero Waste certification in part through “re-earthing” its tea leaves—“the largest waste stream we have”—in partnership with GEM Dirt, Droney said.

• The topsoil company takes Milo’s spent tea leaves and turns them into compost that it blends with dirt to create nutrient-rich soils. In 2023, Milo’s re-earthed more than 10,000 tons of used tea leaves from all facilities.

The packaging: When it comes to packaging, Milo’s doesn’t let dents stand in its way. The firm has installed compressed air stations on its lines to un-dent damaged bottles before they’re filled, so that none are thrown away.

• “At our flagship facility in Bessemer, if bottles can’t be undented, we send them back to the manufacturer and they can be reground and made into new bottles,” Droney continued. “A recycled bottle uses less resin than a new one.”

The production process: Milo’s has also recycled and diverted more than 148,000 tons of waste since 2019, another reason it has been so highly certified. On top of that, it has prioritized renewable energy sources at its facilities.

• Solar panels went live at the Bessemer plant in 2023, and this past summer, the business commissioned a rooftop solar farm at its Tulsa facility.
• The panels offset from 5% to 10% of each site’s total annual energy consumption, Droney told us. More solar panels are scheduled for other Milo’s sites, he added.

Advice for other manufacturers: Careful environmental stewardship can pay dividends for manufacturers, according to Droney.

• Profitability and sustainability “go hand in hand; we really believe that,” he said. “Solar power, onsite bottle blowing—there’s a cost to it, but there’s also a benefit. When you combine those, not only are you doing the right thing, but you’re generating fuel for future growth. We all have a responsibility to drive sustainability.”

New orders for manufactured goods rose 0.2% in October, after falling the previous two months. When excluding transportation, new orders edged up 0.1%. Orders for durable goods rose 0.3% after falling 0.4% in September. Year to date, durable goods orders are down 0.8%. Nondurable goods ticked up 0.1% in October after declining 0.1% in September. Nonetheless, nondurable goods orders are up 1.5% year to date.

New orders for mining, oil field and gas field machinery experienced the greatest increase of any industry at 17.4%, while metalworking machinery had the largest over-the-month decrease of 5.9%. After falling 23.0% in September, defense aircraft and parts orders are rose 16.6% in October. The largest over-the-year changes occurred in nondefense aircraft and parts (down 30.2%) and computers (up 21.5%).

Factory shipments decreased 0.2% in October, after falling 0.4% in September. Shipments excluding transportation edged up 0.1%, the same increase as the previous month. Shipments for durable goods declined 0.5% in October but are up 1.8% year to date. Meanwhile, nondurable goods shipments inched up 0.1% in October and are up 1.5% year to date.

Unfilled orders for all manufacturing and durable goods industries rose 0.4% in October, following a 0.3% increase in September. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio for durable goods increased to 7.03 from 6.97 in September. Inventories saw a slight decrease of 0.1%, while the inventories-to-shipments ratio remained unchanged at 1.46.

In November, U.S. manufacturing remained in contraction but at the slowest pace of the past five months. The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7 in November from 48.5 in October, barely below the 50 threshold that indicates a contraction in the sector. This suggests manufacturing conditions continued to deteriorate but to a lesser extent than the previous month.

While the rate of decline in new orders slowed sharply, output continued to be scaled back. In addition, production levels fell for a fourth consecutive month to the fastest rate in more than a year. However, rising confidence encouraged manufacturers to increase employment. The rise in employment despite a slowdown in new orders meant firms were able to reduce their backlogs of work.

New export orders also declined and at the fastest pace since June 2023, as international demand weakness worsened. Nevertheless, the downturn in domestic demand for goods is easing, which could improve conditions for manufacturers in 2025. Respondents’ optimism about the year ahead strengthened to the highest level in two and a half years, boosted by the pre-election uncertainty ending.

The pace of input cost inflation eased slightly. On the other hand, output prices increased at a slightly faster pace and was above the pre-pandemic average. As a result of tariff threats, one in four companies reported higher input purchases in November, underlying manufacturers’ concern for how tariffs may impact input prices.

In November, the global manufacturing sector stabilized at 50.0 after contracting for four consecutive months. Three of the five PMI components were at levels consistent with expansion, as output and new orders registered meager growth, and average vendor lead times lengthened. On the other hand, employment and stocks of purchases both declined but at slower rates than the month prior.

The shift from contraction to stabilization is reflective of improvement of operating conditions in China and the rest of Asia and easing of conditions in the U.S. On the other hand, this improvement in business conditions was contrasted by a deep downturn in the Eurozone and Germany in particular. Growth was fastest in India, the Philippines, Kazakhstan, Colombia and Spain compared to other surveyed countries.

Data broken down by sector exhibited that output growth of consumer and intermediate goods producers more than offset a further downturn in the investment goods category. Increased production was due to new orders stabilizing and clearing backlogs of work.

In November, manufacturing employment declined for the fourth consecutive month but at a slightly slower rate than the prior month. Job cuts were reported in the Eurozone, China, the U.K. and Japan, while the U.S., India and Brazil registered employment growth. Nevertheless, confidence rose to a six-month high, with optimism improving across the consumer, intermediate and investment goods industries. On the other hand, inflationary pressures picked up, with both input prices and output charges rising.

In November, the U.S. manufacturing sector contracted for the eighth consecutive month, with the ISM Manufacturing^® PMI rising to a five-month high at 48.4% from 46.5% the prior month, indicating activity contracted at a slower pace. The New Orders Index returned to expansion after seven months of contraction, registering 50.4%. Meanwhile, production (46.8%), inventories (48.1%) and backlog of orders (41.8%) remained in contraction, with production and inventories at slower rates of decline. The Inventories Index, although still low, rose 5.5 percentage points, the largest gain of the report. While there is not yet a concerted stockpiling effort, the increase in the index may be a reflection of companies being more willing to invest in inventory as a response to tariff threats. Supplier deliveries are no longer slowing, and although demand continues to be weak, companies have the benefit of some increased certainty with the election cycle ending.

Although the New Orders Index grew and is up 3.3 percentage points from October, the index hasn’t shown consistent growth since a 24-month streak of expansion ended in May 2022. Despite the slight upswing, respondents continue to note ongoing uncertainty and concern about a lack of new order activity, with three major sectors—computer and electronic products; machinery; and food, beverage and tobacco products—reporting an increase in new orders.

The Production Index remained in contraction in November but inched up 0.6 percentage points from October. Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, only two (computer and electronic products and food, beverage and tobacco products) reported increased production. While new order rates expanded somewhat, backlog levels continued to decline, leading to manufacturers reducing output.

The Employment Index is up 3.7 percentage points from October, contracting for the sixth consecutive month but at a slower pace. Companies continued to reduce headcounts through layoffs, attrition and hiring freezes, with only the food, beverage and tobacco products sector expanding employment in November.

The Prices Index fell 4.5 percentage points to 50.3%, indicating raw materials prices increased in November but at a slower pace than the month before. Aluminum, copper and natural gas registered slight increases, offset by steel, plastic resins and crude oil falling in price. Slightly more than 12% of companies reported paying higher prices, compared to nearly 20% in October.

In October, job openings for manufacturing dropped by 13,000 to 465,000, decreasing in both durable and nondurable goods by 4,000 and 8,000 job openings, The manufacturing job openings rate fell 0.1% to 3.5% in October and declined from 4.3% the previous year. The rate for durable goods manufacturing stayed the same at 3.8%, while it decreased from 3.1% to 3.0% for nondurable goods.

In the larger economy, the number of job openings rose to 7.7 million, an increase of 372,000 from the previous month but a decrease of 941,000 from the previous year. The job openings rate increased to 4.6%, up from 4.4% in September, but declined from 5.2% last year. While this data reflects an overall labor market that remains solid despite cooling over the past year, it also exhibits continued weakness for the manufacturing industry.

The number of hires in the overall economy fell to 5.3 million from 5.6 million in September and dropped 501,000 from the previous year. The hires rate decreased 0.2% to 3.3%. Meanwhile, the hires rate for manufacturing declined 0.2% to 2.6%. The hires rate for durable goods fell to 2.2%, while it stayed the same for nondurable goods at 3.3%.

Total separations, which includes quits, layoffs, discharges and other separations, rose 65,000 from September to 5.3 million but dropped 369,000 from the previous year. The total separations rate stayed the same at 3.3% but fell to 2.6% from 2.9% for manufacturing. Within that rate, layoffs and discharges declined in October, while quits rose. The quit and layoff rates continue to remain lower for manufacturing than the total nonfarm sector.