Input Stories

Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 177,000 in April, above expectations. On the other hand, March’s job gain was revised downward dramatically by 43,000, from 228,000 to 185,000. The 12-month average stands at 156,833 job gains per month. The unemployment rate stayed the same at 4.2%, while the labor force participation rate inched up 0.1% to 62.6%.

Manufacturing employment slipped by 1,000, but the March gain of 1,000 was revised upward by 2,000 jobs to an increase of 3,000. Durable goods manufacturing employment rose by 2,000, while nondurable goods employment declined by 3,000. The most significant gains in manufacturing in April occurred in fabricated metal product manufacturing and food manufacturing, which added 3,100 jobs each over the month. Meanwhile, the most significant losses occurred in motor vehicles and parts manufacturing, which shed 4,700 jobs over the month, followed by computer and electronic product manufacturing, which lost 4,000 jobs.

The employment-population ratio ticked up 0.1% to 60.0% but is down 0.2 percentage points from a year ago. Employed persons who are part-time workers for economic reasons decreased by 90,000 to 4.69 million but are up from 4.46 million in April 2024. Native-born employment is up 1,042,000 over the month and 1,120,000 over the year. Meanwhile, foreign-born employment is down 410,000 over the month but up 1,333,000 over the year.

Average hourly earnings for all private nonfarm payroll employees rose 0.2%, or 6 cents, reaching $36.06. Over the past year, earnings have grown 3.8%. The average workweek for all employees stayed the same at 34.3 hours but ticked down 0.2 hour for manufacturing employees to 40.0 hours.

In April, the U.S. manufacturing sector contracted for the second consecutive month and at a slightly faster pace than the prior month, with the ISM Manufacturing^® PMI decreasing to 48.7% from 49.0% in March. Customer demand and output weakened, while input strengthened further, which are not seen as positive conditions for economic growth. The New Orders and Employment Indexes continued to contract but at a slower pace, rising to 47.2% and 46.5%, respectively. Production contracted at a faster pace, weakening to 44.0%, 4.3 percentage points lower than March. Meanwhile, inventories (50.8%) grew at a slower pace in April, which is not a positive sign amid slowing demand.

The New Orders Index contracted for the third consecutive month but at a slower pace than the prior month, a 2.0 percentage point rise from March. The index hasn’t shown consistent growth since a 24-month streak of expansion ended in May 2022. Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, four—petroleum and coal products; machinery; computer and electronic products; and chemical products—reported an increase in new orders. The percentage of respondents noting “higher” and “lower” new orders both rose in April, an unusual sign and indication of a period of transition.

The New Export Orders Index contracted for a second consecutive month and at a faster pace since the pandemic to 43.1%, 6.5 percentage points lower than March. The sharp contraction was due to the combination of slower global growth as well as the application of retaliatory tariffs applied to a variety of U.S.-manufactured products. Meanwhile, the Imports Index contracted after three consecutive months of expansion, dropping 3.0 percentage points to 47.1% in April. Unlike in prior months, buyers were no longer pulling forward deliveries as increased tariff rates went into effect, and lower demand reduced the need to maintain the import levels of prior months.

The Employment Index contracted for the third consecutive month but at a slower pace than the prior month, a 1.8 percentage point bump from March. Of the six-largest manufacturing sectors, three—petroleum and coal products; transportation equipment; and computer and electronic products—reported increased employment. Companies continued to reduce headcounts through layoffs, attrition and hiring freezes.

The Prices Index rose 0.4 percentage points to 69.8%, indicating raw materials prices increased for the seventh straight month in April to its highest reading since June 2022, driven by the dramatic rise in steel and aluminum prices, as well as the broad 10% tariff applied to imported goods. Forty-nine percent of companies reported paying higher prices, up dramatically from 21% in January.

The first brand-new U.S. liquefied natural gas export facility to advance under the new administration has gotten the final financial green light (Reuters, subscription).

What’s going on: “Australia’s Woodside Energy gave final approval to build a $17.5 billion liquefied natural gas project in Louisiana.”

•  The project—estimated to begin delivering gas in 2029—will be the largest single from-scratch investment in Louisiana to date, as well as the largest single foreign direct investment in the state’s history, according to Louisiana Economic Development.

What the project has: The Woodside LNG endeavor is “in a foreign trade zone, which gives it relief on some customs duties.”

• The construction will use mostly U.S.-based contractors, services and workers, and about half of the materials and equipment will be sourced domestically.

What it means: The project, which has an estimated lifespan of 40 years once operational, will help Woodside “produce around 24 million tonnes per annum from its worldwide LNG portfolio in the next decade, making up over 5% of global supply, to service demand in Europe and Asia.”

The NAM says: “Tremendous news from [Woodside Energy],” NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons wrote following the announcement. “Growing LNG production is vital for fostering job creation, incentivizing investment and driving America’s economy forward.”

The NAM’s record: The NAM has long urged policymakers to supercharge the nation’s LNG export capacity. In 2024, it released a joint study with EY that found the LNG export industry’s total fiscal support of federal, state and local governments was $11 billion in 2023 alone.

• The study also found that the sector, which has created tens of thousands of jobs, could support more than 900,000 additional positions and add $216 billion to U.S. gross domestic product by 2044.
• Last December, the NAM made recommendations to Trump’s transition team, advocating the removal of the Biden export ban, a move that Trump made on his first day.
• In April, the NAM recommended to 10 federal agencies that 44 regulations should be revised or rescinded. Among those proposals was the recommendation that the Department of Energy issue a new study on LNG exports.

Existing home sales decreased 5.9% in March and 2.4% from March 2024. Housing inventory grew to 1.33 million units, reflecting an 8.1% rise from February and a 19.8% jump from last year. The median existing home price was $403,700, up 2.7% from last year, with all four U.S. regions reporting price increases.

Single-family home sales fell 6.4% in March, with the median price increasing 2.9% from March 2024 to $408,000. Condo and co-op sales stayed the same at 380,000 units in March but were down 5.0% from last year. Meanwhile, the median price rose 1.5% from the prior year to $363,000.

Homes were typically on the market for 36 days in March, down from 42 days in February but up from 33 days in March 2024. First-time buyers made up 32% of sales in March, up slightly from 31% in February and the same as last year. According to NAR’s Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, 2024 had the lowest share of first-time home buyers on record at 24%.

All-cash sales accounted for 26% of transactions in March, down from 32% in February and 28% in March 2024. Meanwhile, investors or second-home buyers represented 15% of homes purchased in March, down from 16% in February and unchanged from March 2024. Distressed sales, including foreclosures and short sales, represented 3% of purchases in March, unchanged from February but up from 2% last year.

The S&P Global Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI rose from 50.2 in March to 50.7 in April, a two-month high and above the 50-point marker that signals growth in business conditions. Factory production edged back into growth after declining last month. New orders also rose at an increased rate, due to higher domestic orders. Meanwhile, falling export sales were linked widely to new tariffs. The Flash PMI is based on 85% of survey responses for the monthly PMI survey, so although not final, it can give an indication of where activity is trending.

Overall business activity slowed to a 16-month low in April. The average price for goods and services in manufacturing rose to a 29-month high, as suppliers navigate tariff-based price hikes and a weakened exchange rate. Manufacturing employment also declined for the first time since October. Meanwhile, optimism about future business conditions fell for the third month in a row and to the lowest point since July 2022. Sentiment was more resilient for manufacturing than in services, with some companies reporting optimism about protectionist trade policies. Nonetheless, factory confidence fell to its lowest point since last August amid rising costs, supply challenges, weak economic growth and lower export demand.

Manufacturing activity in the Fifth District slowed further in April. The composite manufacturing index fell from -4 in March to -13 in April. Manufacturers continue to be less optimistic looking ahead, with the outlook for future local business conditions falling from -22 in March to -37 in April. The Fifth Federal Reserve District consists of Virginia, Maryland, the Carolinas, the District of Columbia and most of West Virginia.

Among its components, shipments and new orders fell markedly from -7 to -17 and from -4 to -15, respectively. Employment declined from -1 to -5, indicating hiring decreased further in April. The vendor lead time index dropped from 12 to 1 in April, while the share of firms reporting backlogs fell from -1 to -24. Companies are further depressed about local business conditions, with the index declining from -13 to -21. The average growth rates of prices paid and received increased.

Looking ahead, firms still expect both price indexes to rise in the next 12 months. Expectations for future shipments and new orders both declined considerably and turned negative, suggesting that firms anticipate significant deterioration in these areas over the next six months. Expectations for backlogs fell, moving from -6 to -30. Meanwhile, firms exhibited a more cautious approach to equipment and software spending, with expectations slipping from -8 to -16. Similarly, expectations for spending on capital expenditures edged down from -2 to -15. In sum, businesses in the Fifth District are much more hesitant about the prospects for future growth and making new investments.

Manufacturing activity fell modestly in the Tenth District in April, with the month-over-month composite index down two points to -4. Meanwhile, expectations for future activity declined slightly but remained positive. The Tenth Federal Reserve District encompasses the western third of Missouri; all of Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Wyoming; and the northern half of New Mexico. The month-over-month decrease in activity continued to be due primarily to declines in nondurable manufacturing, specifically food and print manufacturing. Most month-over-month indexes were negative, apart from prices, supplier delivery times and inventories for finished goods. Written responses highlight significant price pressure from tariffs, with respondents expecting potential layoffs and price increases for consumers.

Production fell six points to -5, while new orders inched up from -12 to -11. Employment declined at a faster rate in April, falling from -4 to -11, while the average employee workweek turned negative, decreasing from 6 to -6. The backlog of orders worsened from -6 to -20. The year-over-year composite index for factory activity dipped from -7 to -8. Prices received increased both month-over-month and year-over-year in April, while prices for raw materials rose year-over-year in April but were unchanged month-over-month.

In April, survey respondents were asked about business uncertainty and demand expectations. An overwhelming majority of respondents, about 86%, said there was more uncertainty than at the beginning of the year, with nearly 45% saying there was much more uncertainty. Just 11% reported no change, while roughly 2% said there was less uncertainty. When asked about demand expectations, 18% of firms said that demand was significantly lower, and 35% said that expectations were only slightly lower. Meanwhile, 23% said demand was unchanged, and 23% reported slightly higher demand.

Building permits rose 1.6% in March but fell 0.2% over the year. Permits for single-family homes in March declined 2.0% from February and slipped 0.6% over the year. Meanwhile, permits for buildings with five or more units increased 10.1% from February but decreased 0.9% over the year.

In March, housing starts fell 11.4% from February but rose 1.9% from March 2024. Similarly, starts for single-family homes slumped 14.2% from February and declined 9.7% from March 2024. Meanwhile, starts for buildings with five or more units were flat over the month but soared 47.8% over the year.

Meanwhile, housing completions decreased 2.1% over the month but rose 3.9% over the year. On the other hand, single-family home completions grew 0.9% from February and 9.6% from March 2024. Completions for buildings with five or more units fell 8.2% over the month and 4.4% from one year ago.

U.S. import prices fell 0.1% in March, after increasing 0.2% in February, with higher nonfuel prices offsetting lower fuel prices. This is the first monthly decline since September 2024. Over the past year, import prices rose 0.9%. Meanwhile, U.S. export prices were flat in March, following a 0.5% rise in February. Over the past year, export prices increased 2.4%.

Fuel import prices fell 2.3% in March, after rising 1.6% in February. Lower prices for natural gas and petroleum led to this decline. Prices for fuel imports dropped 5.2% over the past year. Import prices for petroleum decreased 1.5% over the month in March. Meanwhile, natural gas prices plummeted 19.8% in March but jumped 88.5% over the year.

Nonfuel import prices ticked up 0.1% in March, for the second consecutive month. Higher prices for capital goods; nonfuel industrial supplies; and foods, feeds and beverages more than offset lower prices for consumer goods and automotive vehicles in March. The price index for nonfuel imports increased 1.5% over the past year.

After rising 0.6% in February, agricultural export prices were unchanged in March. Over the past 12 months, agricultural export prices increased 1.4%. Meanwhile, nonagricultural export prices edged down 0.1% in March, the first decline since September 2024. Higher prices for consumer goods, capital goods and automotive vehicles were offset by lower prices for nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials and nonagricultural foods. Over the past year, nonagricultural export prices advanced 2.5%.

Manufacturing activity in New York state continued to decline in April. While the headline general business activity index rose from the previous month, it remained negative at -8.1. New orders and shipments also continued to contract but at a slower rate than the previous month, with new orders increasing from -14.9 to -8.8 and shipments rising from -8.5 to -2.9. Unfilled orders grew from -2.0 to 4.1, while inventories fell from 13.3 to 7.4. Delivery times ticked down from 1.0 to 0.0, while supply availability dropped from -1.0 to -5.7.

The index for the number of employees, still in negative territory, edged up from -4.1 to -2.6, but the average employee workweek dropped from -2.5 to -9.1. Meanwhile, both input and selling price increases picked up, reflected in the prices paid index rising 5.9 points to 50.8, the fastest pace of increase in more than two years, and the prices received index advanced 6.3 points to 28.7.

Firms are less optimistic than they have been in previous months. The index for future business activity decreased 20.1 points to -7.4, falling a cumulative 44 points in the past three months. Employment and the average employee workweek are forecasted to weaken, continuing a trend from the previous month. New orders are anticipated to decrease, falling from 15.5 to -6.6, and capital spending plans are flat. Input prices are expected to remain high. Meanwhile, supply availability is forecasted to continue to contract in the next six months.