Input Stories

Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal (subscription)—including NAM Chief Economist Chad Moutray—say they now believe that the U.S. will likely avoid a recession.

What’s going on: “In the latest quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal, business and academic economists lowered the probability of a recession within the next year, from 54% on average in July to a more optimistic 48%. That is the first time they have put the probability below 50% since the middle of last year.”

• Economists on average expect gross domestic product to increase 2.2% in Q4 of this year from a year earlier, which is “a sharp upward revision” from the last survey.

Why it’s happening: Playing a role in the revised outlook are declining inflation, an interest rate that the Federal Reserve has held steady at its past two meetings, a robust job market and surprisingly strong recent economic growth.

A “soft landing”: While that growth and job creation are both expected to weaken in the first half of next year, “the latest forecasts suggest confidence in the Fed’s ability to achieve a so-called soft landing, in which inflation falls without a recession.”

• However, recent events—such as the Israel–Hamas war—could alter the accuracy of these predictions, given the potential effect on energy prices.

Our take: “Despite weaknesses in manufacturing demand and production and a multitude of challenges globally, consumers and businesses continue to spend, providing resilience to the U.S. economy,” Moutray told us.

• “Even with recent cooling, the labor market and wage growth remain solid, and firms continue to make investments in the domestic market. While real GDP is likely to slow in the next few quarters following a very strong Q3, the ‘soft landing’ scenario has become more probable in recent months.”

The Justice Department has reached an agreement with the American Civil Liberties Union that would give benefits to thousands of migrant families separated at the border under the previous administration’s policies, according to ABC News.

What’s going on: “Under the proposed agreement, the Justice Department says, new standards would be established to limit migrant family separations in the future. The settlement would prohibit separations unless there are concerns regarding the wellness of the migrant child, national security issues, medical emergencies or in the case of criminal warrants.”

• The deal—on which a federal judge must still sign off—would also cover any medical costs incurred because of the separations.
• If approved, it would stay in effect for six years. 

Why it’s important: “[U]nder the settlement, more than 3,900 children and their families would be eligible for temporary relief from future deportation for up to three years, with a chance to renew. Members of those families would also be granted work authorizations.”

• More than 75% of the originally identified families that were separated have either been reunited or given the information they need to reunite, according to a Biden administration official.
• “The agreement further expands the number of families that will be eligible for humanitarian parole and reunification, meaning that the ACLU and other organizations will be receiving information on separated families that was previously unknown,” according to ABC News.

Previous policy: A policy in place for four months in 2018 “mandated prosecutions for all suspected illegal border crossings, which led to parents being deported while their children stayed in U.S. custody or were placed in foster care.”

The last word: “The NAM has long called for policy that explicitly prohibits the separation of minor children from their parents, which is what we lay out in ‘A Way Forward,’ our immigration-policy document,” said NAM Director of Domestic Policy Julia Bogue.

Logistics companies are increasingly using “flexible workers” to fill open positions, according to The Wall Street Journal (subscription).

What’s going on: More operators, competing with other employers that allow workers to make their own hours, are offering scheduling and shift flexibility.

• They’re using specialized software to do it, one source told the Journal, adding that the practice is one of the ways logistics firms are hiring in the runup to the holiday season.

Why it’s important: This “flexibility in a field known for rigid schedules and grueling workloads is a sign that the practices of app-driven operators are seeping into more traditional workplaces, particularly in a tight market for blue-collar workers.”

Vetted and ready: Not just anyone can fill a warehouse-worker slot, in part “because industrial jobs require specific training and expertise, logistics experts say.”

• To ensure those they bring on are qualified, logistics companies have begun using warehouse-tailored gig-worker apps, in which “[w]orkers set their availability in advance … and go through a background screening process” with the app company.
• Logistics companies often use traditional staffing agencies “particularly for the peak holiday season. But some are looking to fill jobs when they need people in a more targeted way, such as Monday mornings to catch up with e-commerce orders that came in over the weekend.”

A supplement, not replacement: Even companies that plan to stick with full-time employees are seeking ways to use the gig model to their advantage.

• “PepsiCo is testing a platform that allows warehouse workers to easily swap shifts from their smartphones, among other functions, said John Phillips, senior vice president of customer supply chain and global go-to-market.”

The Creators Wanted campaign—an initiative of the NAM and the Manufacturing Institute aimed at driving excitement about modern manufacturing careers—is concluding the wildly successful run of its immersive experience with a significant finale at the Circleville Pumpkin Show, one of the largest annual festivals in the country.

By the numbers: Since it began last year, Creators Wanted has created quite a stir.

• More than 13,000 students, educators and community leaders have engaged with the tour directly.
• Online, 1.5 million students and mentors have signed up to explore modern manufacturing careers.
• A whopping 84% of tour participants now view manufacturing careers more positively.
• Positive industry perception among parents has jumped nationwide from 27% to 40%, thanks in part to the tour and associated MI programs.

Watch a recap of the tour featuring the voices of students, educators and parents who share their perspective on the tour’s impact.

Next week: From Oct. 17–21, half a million attendees, including families and students, will have a chance to experience the tour’s immersive setup, a featured event at this year’s show.

• Manufacturing team members from the Honda and LG Energy Solution joint venture (the tour stop’s sponsor) will be present, offering insights into modern manufacturing careers.
• The Creators Wanted online training program and jobs resource will be showcased, and the tour will engage with local schools, particularly STEM students, amplifying the opportunities in manufacturing.

The big picture: With industries vying for the best talent amid continued labor challenges, initiatives like the Creators Wanted Tour play an essential role in reshaping public perceptions and attracting the next generation into manufacturing over other potential career options.

What’s next: “Now, we know our work is far from over, and so our work goes on with the MI, building on this momentum, along with Creators Wanted digital resources, ” said NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons, who also serves as chairman of the board of the MI.

Prices paid by consumers for a variety of goods and services rose faster than expected last month, according to CNBC.

What’s going on: “The consumer price index, a closely followed inflation gauge, increased 0.4% on the month and 3.7% from a year ago, according to a Labor Department report Thursday. That compared to respective Dow Jones estimates of 0.3% and 3.6%.”

Core CPI: Core CPI, which excludes often-volatile food and energy costs, were in keeping with economist expectations, inching up 0.3% on the month and 4.1% year over year.

The details: Housing costs accounted for most of the inflation uptick.

• The shelter index—which composes about a third of the CPI weighting—rose 0.6% in September and 7.2% from September 2022.
• Food and energy costs rose 0.2% and 1.5%, respectively.
• Prices for services, “considered a key for the longer-run direction for inflation,” rose 0.6% excluding energy services.

What it means: “These data are not likely to change the trajectory of monetary policy, with the Federal Open Market Committee likely to pause [interest-rate hikes] once again at its Oct. 31–Nov. 1 meeting,” said NAM Chief Economist Chad Moutray. “Interest rates are not likely to see a cut until mid-to-late 2024.”
 

The “Big Three” carmakers are being forced to keep laying off workers as the United Auto Workers union continues its strike, according to CBS News.

What’s going on: To date since the strike began, General Motors, Ford and Stellantis have had to lay off a total of 4,835 employees.

• “While we are doing what we can to avoid layoffs, we have no choice but to reduce production of parts that would be destined for a plant that is on strike,” Ford Vice President for Americas Manufacturing and Labor Affairs Bryce Currie said in a statement this week, CBS reports. “Strike-related layoffs are an unfortunate result of the UAW’s strategy.”
• In addition, many auto suppliers have suspended the employment of hundreds of workers because of the strike.

Why it’s important: Economic losses to the auto industry through the first three weeks of the strike totaled approximately $5.5 billion, Michigan-based economic consultancy Anderson Economic Group estimates.

• That figure includes $2.68 billion in lost revenue for the carmakers, $579 million in direct wages for workers, supplier losses of $1.6 billion and dealer and customer losses of $1.26 billion.

The NAM’s take: “The strike is causing tremendous economic harm throughout the economy,” said NAM Vice President of Economic Policy Brandon Farris. “It isn’t just the automakers, but every employee that has been laid off and many of the small and medium manufacturers that supply them.”

• “Many of those manufacturers may never recover,” he continued. “The NAM strongly urges a quick resolution. The longer the strike lasts, the harder it will be to undo the drastic economic harm caused to employees and manufacturers.”

America’s aging population is one reason consumer spending has remained robust even as the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates, The Wall Street Journal (subscription) reports.

What’s going on: As of August, a record 17.7% of the U.S. population was 65 or older.

• Senior citizens, whose finances tend to be relatively robust, “accounted for 22% of spending last year, the highest share since records began in 1972 and up from 15% in 2010,” according to Labor Department data cited by the Journal. 

Why it’s important: “Our large share of older consumers provides a consumption base in times like today when job growth slows, interest rates rise and student-debt loan repayments begin again,” Susan Sterne, chief economist at Economic Analysis Associates, told the news outlet.

Longer lives, more spending: In addition to living longer, the elderly are more active than ever before, spending on traveling, hiking, cruises, e-bikes and more.

• “The average household led by someone age 65 and older spent 2.7% more last year than in 2021, adjusted for inflation, according to the Labor Department, compared with 0.7% for under-65 households.”

Recession buffer: Baby boomers have amassed more than $77 trillion in wealth, according to the Fed—and some economists say that money will help prevent an economic recession.
 

The Bridge of the Americas in South-Central El Paso, Texas—one of the largest land ports for U.S.–Mexico trade—restarted commercial operations on a limited schedule yesterday, according to a notice from U.S. Customs and Border Protection.

• It’s a development that the NAM advocated, having engaged in continued talks with the Biden administration and relevant agencies since cargo movement was suspended last month.  

What’s going on: The port of entry reopened at 6:00 a.m. Tuesday and closed at 2:00 p.m., a schedule it will keep temporarily each week Monday through Friday.

• In recent weeks, large numbers of migrants have crossed the Texas–Mexico border, and the CBP stopped commercial movement along the Bridge of the Americas so federal customs agents could assist with the influx.

Why it’s important: “The temporary bridge closure and the Texas Department of Public Safety’s (DPS) enhanced safety truck inspections at El Paso’s two other truck ports of entry have drastically slowed cargo truck crossings in recent weeks between El Paso and Juárez, Mexico,” according to the El Paso Times on MSN.

• Last week, the value of goods in thousands of trucks backed up on the Mexican side of the border “had surpassed $1.5 billion,” according to a source cited by Reuters (subscription).
• Prior to the temporary closure, the bridge had been processing approximately 500 northbound trucks a day, according to the El Paso Times.

The NAM says: “Mexico is the largest trading partner of the U.S. and facilitating trade between the two countries is vital to manufacturers’ operations,” said NAM Director of Trade Facilitation Policy Ali Aafedt. “The NAM will continue to share the impacts of the disruption with the federal government and urge solutions to resolve the continuing backlog.” 
 

U.S. producer prices for final demand goods and services rose more than expected last month, largely owing to higher energy costs, Reuters (subscription) reports.

What’s going on: “The producer price index for final demand rose 0.5% last month, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. Data for August was unrevised to show the PPI accelerating 0.7%.”

• Reuters-polled economists had expected the PPI to increase 0.3%.
• “In the 12 months through September, the PPI increased 2.2% after advancing 2.0% in August.”

Core PPI: Core producer prices—prices excluding food, energy and trade services components—rose 0.2%, the same increase seen in August.

• “In the 12 months through September, the … core PPI increased 2.8% after climbing 2.9% in August.”

Coming up: The Federal Reserve is expected to leave current interest rates unchanged when it meets Oct. 31 and Nov. 1, according to Reuters. 

As United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain prepares to give an update on labor-contract negotiations this afternoon, the UAW’s three-week-old strike at plants across the Midwest is hurting auto suppliers, according to The Washington Post (subscription).

What’s going on: “More than 3,000 supplier employees have been affected so far, a Washington Post tally shows, while an industry association says nearly 30 percent of its supplier members have resorted to layoffs.”

• More than 60% of suppliers said they expected to begin layoffs this month. Others say these cuts could “broaden over time” if the strike continues
• The strike has reverberated beyond the automotive sector, too. U.S. Steel recently announced 300 temporary layoffs after it was forced to idle an Illinois furnace because of the walkouts.

Why it’s important: “The [strike’s] fallout shows the outsize role the auto industry plays in the U.S. economy, to which it contributes about 3 percent of gross domestic product.”

• What’s more, the widespread shuttering of smaller auto suppliers—which number in the thousands and are often the main source of employment in the areas where they operate—would make it harder for General Motors, Ford and Stellantis to resume normal operations after the strike.

Manufacturers say: “The longer the strike, the more likely thousands of citizens across Michigan will face layoffs, and not just UAW members,” John Walsh, president and CEO of the Michigan Manufacturers Association (an NAM state partner), wrote in The Detroit News (subscription).

• “Layoffs, in turn, will affect restaurants, stores and local businesses. The economic impact will be felt throughout our families and our communities.”