Input Stories

Manufacturing activity in July has contracted for the eighth time in nine months, though the pace of decline has slowed markedly. The S&P Global Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.0 in July from June’s 46.3.

The details: Output increased to 50.2 in July, from 46.9 in June. New orders rose to 48.5 from 42.9.

• Export demand saw significant progress (up to 48.7 from 44.9).
• Hiring increased to 52.8 from 52.3
• Future output picked up speed, increasing to 69.8 from 63.6.

However … The S&P Global Flash U.S. Services Business Activity Index dipped to a five-month low of 52.4, down from June’s 54.4, indicating a decline in business activity among service providers.

Across the pond: Manufacturing activity continues to decline in Europe, particularly in Germany, according to the S&P’s HCOB Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI.

• The headline Eurozone index fell to 42.7 in July from June’s 43.4, signaling a post-COVID-19 low.

Industrial production declined 0.5% in June for the second month in a row, the Federal Reserve reported today, according to Bloomberg (subscription).

What’s going on: “The June index of production at factories, mines and utilities decreased 0.5% for a second [consecutive] month, Federal Reserve data showed Tuesday. Manufacturing output declined 0.3% in June, the most in three months.”

• The central bank’s index of manufacturing output has dipped 0.3% from June 2022, with production hamstrung “by lackluster export markets, efforts to work down inventories and more limited consumer spending on merchandise.”

The details: Consumer goods output declined 1.3% in June, the biggest drop in more than two years and a reflection of decreased production across a wide swath of categories, including automotive vehicles, apparel and appliances.

• Materials output also declined, while production of business equipment was flat.

Some good news: “[M]anufacturing may benefit some in coming months as retailers get inventories more in line with sales and the pace of goods inflation slows. Separate data on Tuesday showed retail sales rose by less than forecast, while an underlying measure of household spending pointed to a more resilient consumer at the end of the second quarter.”

Manufacturing is booming in Ohio, as payrolls swell and economic output in the sector breaks records—but continued success could be in jeopardy if Washington continues its current regulatory onslaught, Ohio Manufacturers’ Association President Ryan Augsburger writes in a recent Cleveland Plain Dealer (subscription) op-ed.

What’s going on: “The latest survey conducted by the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) finds that U.S. manufacturers’ concerns over federal regulations have reached a six-year high as nearly 100 new major regulations—from 30 federal agencies and offices—threaten jobs and investment,” Augsburger notes.

• In the next year, the Biden administration plans to issue even more regulations—approximately 3,200, including about 280 “major rules” and 1,326 “significant rules.”
• Meanwhile, “More than 63% of manufacturers are spending more than 2,000 hours per year complying with federal regulations, diverting resources that would otherwise go towards employee compensation, new hires and additional investment in U.S. facilities,” Augsburger writes, citing the NAM’s Q2 2023 Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey.

Why it’s important: All these rules will cost manufacturers dearly, according to Augsburger, who highlights a few particularly burdensome regulations, including:

• The Environmental Protection Agency’s proposed particulate matter rule, which is expected to cost “up to $197.4 billion in U.S. economic activity and endanger as many as 973,900 current U.S. jobs”;
• The Securities and Exchange Commission’s proposed climate-disclosure requirement, which the NAM recently advocated against in testimony before the House; and
• The Federal Trade Commission’s proposal to ban noncompete agreements, which 70% of manufacturers use to safeguard their intellectual property.

What can be done: The NAM and the Ohio Manufacturers’ Association have been in contact with the White House to coordinate the designation of a senior adviser, who will work to ensure that the regulations put forth align with President Biden’s promise to promote manufacturing. 

The final say: “Time and again, we’ve seen regulatory uncertainty and over-regulation stymie new hiring and kill manufacturing jobs. When the U.S. does not manufacture, investment shifts to other countries that do not share our commitment to environmental stewardship and worker safety,” Augsburger said.​​

U.S. wages are now growing faster than inflation for the first time in two years, helping workers but muddling Federal Reserve attempts to lower price increases, according to The Wall Street Journal (subscription).

What’s going on: “Inflation-adjusted average hourly wages rose 1.2% in June from a year earlier, according to the Labor Department. That marked the second straight month of seasonally adjusted gains after two years when workers’ historically elevated raises were erased by price increases.”

• In manufacturing, wages are up 5.6% over a year ago, according to NAM Chief Economist Chad Moutray.

More to enjoy: “In addition to enjoying solid wage growth, Americans are taking comfort in slower price increases for everyday items—such as gasoline and groceries—that have the biggest influence on their perception of inflation.”

• However … Adjusted for inflation, pay growth “remains below the trend in the five years before the pandemic,” one source told the Journal.

Why it’s important: If wages continue to surpass cost increases, they could encourage more spending, which could help the economy avoid a recession.

• In recent months, Journal-polled economists have been less confident that there will be a recession in the next 12 months. However, Americans in general continue to expect a recession, according to the article.

The Fed’s role: The Federal Reserve has increased the benchmark interest rate 10 times in the past 16 months and has indicated it will raise it again later this month.

• “‘It’s great to see wage increases, particularly for people at the lower end of the income spectrum,’ [Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome] Powell said [in June]. ‘But we want that as part of the process of getting inflation back down to 2%, which benefits everyone.’”

The last word: “With manufacturers continuing to cite workforce challenges, even in a cooling labor market, wage growth remains significant,” Moutray said. “The average manufacturer pays $26.41 [an hour] nationally for production and nonsupervisory workers, up 5.6% from one year ago, a very solid rate. Relief on growth in consumer inflation will allow those employees to realize the purchasing power of those dollars more fully.”

Further resources: For more workforce solutions and insights, check out the resources of the Manufacturing Institute, the NAM’s 501(c)3 nonprofit workforce development and education affiliate.
 

The NAM met with North American trade ministers last week in Cancun, Mexico, where it urged them to take up key trade priorities for manufacturers.

What happened: The NAM led a delegation from the American business community, which participated in a roundtable discussion ahead of the third United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement “Free Trade Commission” on July 7 in Cancun.

• Attendees at the roundtable event included NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons, U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai, Canadian Minister of Small Business, Export Promotion and International Trade Mary Ng, Mexican Secretary of the Economy Raquel Buenrostro and business executives from the three countries, including Rockwell Automation Chairman and CEO Blake Moret.

Shared values: The NAM underscored the importance of an investment climate underpinned by core democratic principles, such as transparency and the rule of law.

• “We believe in democracy,” Timmons said. “However imperfect, this system fosters free enterprise, competitiveness, individual liberty and equal opportunity. These values make manufacturing strong in our countries.”
• He added that each year North American manufacturers contribute $3 trillion to the U.S., Canadian and Mexican economies.

What must be done: Though the USMCA already creates advantages for North American manufacturers, the agreement’s full potential can only be realized if the three countries work together to address certain key challenges, Timmons told the attendees. Some of the main hurdles include:

• Mexico’s power-generation policies, which have long favored Mexican state-owned energy companies and led to higher bills for manufacturers that must use existing energy-supply contracts;
• Permitting delays for U.S. projects in Mexico that undercut American firms and reduce energy supply to North American manufacturers and consumers;
• Mexico’s expanded food-labeling requirements and bans on the sale of some U.S. foods and nonalcoholic beverages to minors, which unjustly restrict U.S. exports;

Read the full story here.

The explosive growth of artificial intelligence is leading semiconductor makers to move quickly to create “designs that stack chips together like high-tech Lego pieces,” according to The Wall Street Journal (subscription).

What’s going on: “‘Chiplets’ can be an easier way to design more-powerful chips, according to industry executives who call the technology one of the most significant advances since the dawn of the integrated circuit more than 60 years ago.”

• The technology has the potential to deliver more powerful, cost-effective semiconductors, sources told the Journal.
• Last year, some of the world’s largest technology companies, including Qualcomm and Intel—which recently announced products containing chiplets—formed a coalition to craft chiplet-designing standards.

How it works: “A typical consumer device such as a smartphone contains many types of chip[s] for functions including data processing, graphics processing, memory, telecommunications and power control.”

• “The chips are delicately tethered to minuscule wires and ensconced in a protective plastic casing, forming a package that can be fixed to a circuit board.”
• “With the new chiplet packaging, engineers have found ways to bolt together pre-existing chips, the equivalent of using a few Lego pieces to build a toy car.”

The caveats: Chiplet manufacturing is not cheap, however, and the technology requires its own performance-verification process.

• What’s more, chiplets “aren’t suited to every function,” and lend themselves better to high-end desktop computers than mass-marketed cell phones.

China’s role: It is estimated that China controls 38% of the semiconductor assembly, testing and packaging market, a fact that “poses two potential risks for the U.S. While many American companies have been working with factories in China to handle these specialist chip-making roles, the supply chains could be tangled by a geopolitical crisis or another pandemic.”

• “In addition, the U.S. has imposed export controls on advanced semiconductor technology and could seek to expand controls in the future.”​​​​​​​

Manufacturers across the United States are driving economic expansion while also supporting sustainable business practices, enhancing diversity in the workforce and combatting climate change. Yet, politically motivated activists threaten to slow this progress by insisting on their own narrow agendas. Recent actions by the Securities and Exchange Commission will empower these groups and divert resources from manufacturers’ investments in job creation and business growth.

As the Financial Services Committee in the House of Representatives begins a monthlong hearing series on environmental, social and governance topics and other issues related to the proxy process, NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons is calling on Congress to rein in the SEC’s regulatory overreach and keep activists out of the boardroom.

Depoliticizing corporate governance: Activists on the left and right are increasingly abusing the proxy ballot to advance narrow social and political agendas. The SEC has taken steps in recent years to support and empower these activists.

• The NAM is suggesting reforms to the rules governing shareholder proposals that will prevent activists from hijacking the proxy ballot in pursuit of political agendas unrelated to long-term business growth and shareholder value creation.

Reining in proxy advisory firms: Despite their significant conflicts of interest, errors and lack of transparency, proxy firms exercise outsized influence on corporate governance. More oversight and accountability are needed to protect manufacturers and Main Street investors from these powerful actors.

• The NAM is pressing Congress to ensure that proxy firms are regulated appropriately by the SEC—including by requiring that the firms disclose and manage their conflicts of interest and allow companies to review their draft recommendations.

Read the full story here.

California’s port system will get a $1.5 billion upgrade, according to Sourcing Journal (subscription).

What’s going on: “The Port of Los Angeles has been awarded $233 million in grants, while the Port of Long Beach received $383 million. The Port of Oakland got $119 million in funding, and the Port of Hueneme received $80 million.”

• “$1.2 billion will go to 15 projects designed to increase the capacity to move goods throughout the state’s global trade gateways while lessening environmental impacts on neighboring communities.”
• At Los Angeles, grant-funded improvements are set to include “a project that augments an existing partial roadway that directly serves 10 percent of all waterborne containers entering and exiting the entire United States.”

The background: The investment announcement by California Gov. Gavin Newsom late last week came less than a month after the Pacific Maritime Association and the International Longshore and Warehouse Union—dockworkers and their employer, respectively—reached a tentative six-year labor agreement at all 29 West Coast ports.

Why it’s important: The grants will decrease port congestion, boost business, add jobs and help operations use more zero-emissions energy, sources told the publication.

What we’re saying: “These types of congestion- and capacity-focused upgrades will ensure that ports across California remain operationally sound for years to come,” said NAM Director of Infrastructure, Innovation and Human Resources Policy Ben Siegrist.

• “As with the historic investment funded by the bipartisan infrastructure law, these improvements will keep products flowing and manufacturing lines open.”

To learn how sectors and businesses are using artificial intelligence, The Economist (subscription) created an index of firms in the S&P 500—and the results show that “even beyond tech firms the interest in AI is growing fast.”

What’s going on: “We looked at five measures: the share of issued patents that mention AI; venture-capital (VA) activity targeting AI firms; acquisitions of AI firms; job listings citing AI; and mentions of the technology on earnings calls. … [C]lear leaders and laggards are already emerging.”

The findings: In the past three years, approximately two-thirds of the companies examined by The Economist have placed a job ad that refers to AI. One of the sharpest increases in such mentions has been among chipmakers.

• The number of registered AI-related patents rose between 2020 and 2022.
• This year, about 25% of venture deals by S&P 500 companies involved AI start-ups, an increase from 19% just two years ago.

Outside Silicon Valley: While the index found that the most “enthusiastic” users of AI are technology companies, “[b]eyond tech, two types of firms seem to be adopting AI the quickest.”

• Data-heavy sectors, including insurance, pharmaceutical and financial-services companies “account for about a quarter of our top 100.” In this category, Abbott is building AI-powered medical tools.
• The other category of company quickly adopting AI includes “industries that are already being disrupted by technology,” such as automakers, telecom, retail and media. Among these are Ford and General Motors, which are using AI in electric-vehicle manufacturing.

The last word: AI use may have some drawbacks, including cybersecurity risks, potential legal liability and possible inaccuracy of results. However, these “must be weighed against the potential benefits, which could be vast.”

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission granted all remaining permits to the Mountain Valley Pipeline project in Virginia and West Virginia on Wednesday, allowing it to resume construction after a pause of more than a year, E&E News’ ENERGYWIRE (subscription) reports.

What’s going on: “In a unanimous order issued Wednesday, the commission said that all work on the 303-mile pipeline could proceed. … The commission also authorized FERC’s Office of Energy Projects to approve any future modifications to the Mountain Valley project as proposed by its sponsors—as long as the director of the office finds them ‘to be needed to complete construction.’”

• FERC approval comes just days after the project received its final water-crossing permit from the Army Corps of Engineers.
• The debt-ceiling deal signed into law this month by President Biden contained provisions requiring approval for the MVP, which the agency first approved in 2017.

Why it’s important: “The pipeline has been described by [supporter and West Virginia Sen. Joe] Manchin and others in Congress as a poster child for … the nation’s inefficient energy permitting system.”

• The MVP—the only natural-gas project under development in Appalachia—will help deliver clean, affordable energy from Appalachian shale reserves to customers in the eastern U.S.

A win for timely permitting: “In its order Wednesday, FERC also said it was setting aside its policy of generally considering requests for rehearing before allowing construction.”

What’s next: Developers plan to restart construction “shortly” and finish this year.