Input Stories

Consumer credit rose more than anticipated in June, according to USA Today.

What’s going on: “Overall credit increased $17.8 billion, topping economists’ average forecast for a $13 billion gain, to $4.977 trillion in June, the Fed said late Monday. May’s borrowing also was revised up by about $2 billion.”

• However … despite the June rise, “overall credit increases have moderated over the past year, showing the Fed’s aggressive interest rate hikes to squelch spending and lower inflation are working.”

“Nonrevolving” credit: Nonrevolving credit—lump sums repaid only once, such as those for school tuition and car purchases—jumped by $18.5 billion to $3.735 trillion, largely on the strength of auto sales.

Short-term debt: Short-term debt, such as credit card debt, fell in June for the first time in more than two years, to $1.262 trillion. This is likely due to the sharp increase in credit card interest rates, according to a report cited by USA Today.

The big picture: Consumer spending has stayed steady despite rising inflation owing to savings built up during the global pandemic.

The Small Business Administration is streamlining its lending process, according to The Wall Street Journal (subscription).

What’s going on: “The Small Business Administration is simplifying loan requirements, automating more of the process and expanding the pool of nonbank lenders licensed to issue SBA loans. The moves, many of which take effect Aug. 1, will make it easier for financial-technology firms to participate.”

• The goal: to increase credit extended to small businesses that have typically struggled to get it.

The concern: “[T]he changes—and the decision to couple relaxed requirements with new lenders—have drawn criticism from the industry and members of Congress, who say the revisions could jeopardize the program by increasing loan defaults.”

• Some worry that without “firm guardrails from the SBA” lenders will make risky loans, resulting in more defaults.
• Even if defaults don’t increase, loans could get more expensive for borrowers, as lenders will now be able to charge flat fees.

Why it’s important: “The SBA is authorized by Congress to guarantee as much as $34 billion in loans annually through its main lending program” but qualifying for the funds requires adhering to a set of burdensome rules—and that’s led to underutilization of available funds, according to the Journal.  

The changes: “Under the new SBA rules, lenders can use their own standard credit policies to make SBA loans of as much as $500,000 instead of following government guidelines. Lenders are encouraged to check a box to indicate why borrowers can’t get credit elsewhere, a crucial program requirement, instead of providing a detailed written explanation.”

• Revisions to the loan requirements include reduced or eliminated downpayments for some borrowers.

The Biden administration will soon announce the first grant winners of a multi-billion-dollar competition to speed up development of technology to “remove carbon dioxide from the sky,” according to E&E News’ CLIMATEWIRE (subscription).

What’s going on: The “awards for so-called direct air capture hubs could define the future of the nascent DAC industry in the United States as well as the broader CO2 removal sector, experts say.”

• The Department of Energy received more than a dozen proposals in response to the $3.5 billion DAC hub competition, which was created in 2021 as part of the historic bipartisan infrastructure legislation and seeks to increase the use of DAC technology.
• The projects expected to be announced this month could get “between $3 million and $500 million in matching funds” for efforts such as DAC undertakings capable of capturing and storing one million tons of carbon dioxide every year.

What it is: DAC plants use filters, power, piping and fans to remove carbon dioxide from the air and sequester it underground.

• Just 27 such facilities have been commissioned globally, and the largest of these can remove 4,000 tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere annually.

The economic challenge: “At the moment, it costs around $700 per ton for a DAC facility to remove carbon from the air, according to the industry data clearinghouse CDR. The Inflation Reduction Act, meanwhile, increased the tax incentives for DAC operators to $180 per ton for the CO2 they permanently store.”

• To bridge that cost gap, last year Congress ordered the Biden administration to start a pilot program to pay DAC firms and developers of carbon-removal technology to remove emissions from the air.

The final say: “Manufacturers view clean energy solutions—such as carbon capture and sequestration/storage technologies and hydrogen—as important parts of our country’s energy present and future,” said NAM Director of Domestic Economic Policy Brandon Farris.

• “Manufacturers are leading the charge in developing them and scaling them up for widespread use.”

Canadian dockworkers and their employers in British Columbia agreed to a labor contract Sunday, ending the uncertainty that has plagued the North American port system for the past month, according to CNBC. 

What’s going on: The International Longshore and Warehouse Union of Canada voted to ratify a four-year agreement with the British Columbia Maritime Employers Association following a tumultuous few weeks that included two dockworker strikes—one lasting 14 days and the other only a day.

• “The new deal includes increases in wages, benefits, and training,” according to BCMEA, which also said deal ratification would offer “certainty and stability for the future of Canada’s West Coast ports.”

Why it’s important: During the two-week strike, “[s]ome U.S. shippers reconsigned the destination of their containers to the U.S during that time. Other ocean carriers eventually went back to the Canadian ports and waited to unload both Canadian and U.S. freight.”

• Changes to shipping routes affect railroads, since fewer containers traveling by rail can be unloaded at ports during work disruptions.
• It could take the railroads weeks to clear the backlog of containers built up as a result of the work stoppage.
• While train trade from Canada to the U.S. is recovering, it still ended the week of July 29 with a 6.2% decrease, according to CNBC.

The NAM’s take: “Disruptions to the interconnected North American supply chain have been a constant challenge for manufacturers over the past several years,” said NAM Director of Infrastructure and Labor Policy. “We welcome the announcement that this agreement has been ratified and will continue urging swift resolution to labor negotiations that might further impede reliable and efficient freight movement.” 

U.S. scientists have achieved a net energy gain in a nuclear fusion reaction for a second time—this time, with a higher energy yield, according to Axios.

What’s going on: The federal Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California announced Sunday that in an experiment on July 30, a fusion reaction produced more energy than it consumed, and more than a similar experiment produced last December.

• The December reaction used 192 lasers to produce a net gain of 1.1 megajoules of fusion energy, enough to power an average-size home for about half an hour, according to Extreme Tech.
• The July reaction is said to have netted even more, though specific figures for it are not yet available.

Why it’s important: “Scientists have worked for decades to develop nuclear fusion as a source of effectively limitless clean energy,” Axios reports.

• However … “Scaling up the technology to support the electrical grid will require increasingly powerful lasers—and more of them,” according to Extreme Tech.

The last word: “The net gain of fusion energy—for a second time, and in a larger amount—is a tremendous milestone,” said NAM Director of Domestic Economic Policy Brandon Farris. “It is further evidence of the enormous potential of nuclear power to help us meet our energy needs and energy-security goals.”

U.S. power companies are finding it increasingly difficult to get the large transformers they need to move electricity long distances—and the Department of Energy should step up to help them, the Government Accountability Office said this week, according to E&E News’ ENERGYWIRE (subscription).

What’s going on: A “GAO report called on DOE to create a plan, with deadlines, to overcome growing delays and difficulties U.S. utilities are facing in getting new large power transformers that are required to move electricity across more than 160,000 miles of U.S. high-voltage lines.”

• Most of the transformers are imported from overseas, and there is still a shortage due to pandemic-related supply chain disruptions.
• In some cases, delivery times have more than doubled, and the largest of the transformers can cost up to $10 million.

Why it’s important: “Transformers are critical for the future energy mix, as they are needed to create a larger grid for increased wind and solar generation, according to analysts.”

• In 2027 the demand by North American power companies for large transformers will likely be about twice what it was in 2020, according to the DOE.

What can be done: The DOE should create a plan to get more power companies to take part in voluntary programs to loan out spare large transformers during emergencies, the GAO recommends.

• The largest of these sharing agreements, the Edison Electric Institute’s Spare Transformer Equipment Program, had 57 participating utilities as of March.
• Thirty-one utilities in 28 states have signed onto a grid program to furnish spare transformers during cyberattacks or natural disasters.

The challenges: “[S]hortages of skilled manufacturing craftsmen able to build the transformers’ complex windings are a significant challenge … [DOE] said it is working on expanding apprenticeship programs to address the issue.”

Our take: “Transformers and transmission lines are critical to meet our growing energy security needs,” said NAM Director of Domestic Economic Policy Brandon Farris.​​​​​​

• “The NAM will continue working with the DOE and others to ensure that current and future needs are met, including developing the next generation of the manufacturing workforce and breaking down permitting barriers to expedite the buildout of our grid.”

Manufacturing employment declined in July, marking the third decrease of 2023, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

What’s going on: Jobs in manufacturing dipped by 2,000. Year to date, the sector has added just 11,000 employees, a significant slowdown from its pace of 385,000 in 2021 and 390,000 in 2022.

• However, the number of workers in the industry in July—12,985,000—is just short of the number in February, 12,988,000. The latter was the most since November 2008.
• Overall, the economy added 187,000 jobs in July, coming in under expectations, according to Yahoo Finance.

Wages: Average hourly pay of production and nonsupervisory staff in manufacturing increased 0.3% in July to $26.46, with 5.3% growth in the past year. 

Where employment is up: In July, manufacturing’s largest employment gains were in transportation equipment (up 5,600), computers and electronic products (up 2,500), miscellaneous nondurable goods (up 1,800), primary metals (up 1,700), miscellaneous durable goods (up 1,300) and nonmetallic mineral products (up 1,000).

The NAM says: “Total manufacturing employment has remained relatively resilient despite a challenging economic environment in the sector, including weaker demand, production and an uncertain outlook,” said NAM Chief Economist Chad Moutray.
 

A persistent shortage of construction workers in the U.S. is slowing the completion of everything from single-family homes to major infrastructure projects, according to CNBC.

What’s going on: To meet labor demands this year, “construction firms will need to attract an estimated 546,000 additional workers on top of the normal pace of hiring,” CNBC reports, citing data from Associated Builders and Contractors.

• “The construction industry averaged more than 390,000 job openings per month in 2022, the highest level on record, while unemployment in the sector of 4.6% was the second lowest on record.”

Why it’s important: The industry’s labor shortage is not likely to be resolved any time soon. When combined with rising materials costs, it will only worsen the backlog of projects, which is already at a four-year high.

What’s needed: The bipartisan infrastructure bill of 2021 allocated money for projects, but not for “enticing new workers … or training” them, according to CNBC. Another component of the solution: immigration reform, a policy the NAM has long advocated.

• “More money is going to need to be spent on training additional workers, bringing people into this industry,” a source told CNBC.
• Said another, “We should also be looking at ways to allow more people to lawfully enter the country and work in construction careers, whether that’s a temporary work visa program that’s specific to construction, or broader comprehensive immigration reform.”

Our take: “The record manufacturing construction activity seen in the U.S. is further straining an already tight labor market,” said Chad Moutray, chief economist at the NAM and director of the Center for Manufacturing Research at the Manufacturing Institute, the NAM’s 501(c)3 workforce development and education affiliate.

• “Leaders in the sector are trying to think of ways to differentiate themselves in the competition for talent. Such pressures—along with changing demographics—are likely to keep workforce challenges front and center over the coming years.”

The U.S. and Europe are working to address “China’s accelerated push into the production of older-generation semiconductors,” Bloomberg (subscription) reports.

What’s going on: Last year, the U.S. imposed restrictions on the export of certain advanced technologies to China. Beijing has reacted by investing heavily in building facilities making older chips that do not face such U.S. restrictions.

• Legacy chips—those produced using 28-nanometer-and-larger equipment—remain critical in the global economy as components of everything from electric vehicles to military devices.
• China is on track to build 26 semiconductor factories through 2026, while the U.S. is forecast to construct 16 facilities “that use 200-millimeter and 300-mm wafers.”

Why it’s a problem: “Senior EU and U.S. officials are concerned about Beijing’s drive to dominate this market for both economic and security reasons, [sources] said. They worry Chinese companies could dump their legacy chips on global markets in the future, driving foreign rivals out of business…”

• If that were to happen, Western firms could become reliant on China for the chips, the sources say, and that could pose a national security risk.

Importance of legacy chips: The global pandemic demonstrated that older-model semiconductors remain important, as chip shortages hit companies’ bottom lines.

• The U.S. and Europe have been trying to expand their own chip production to avoid a repeat. Efforts have included the 2021 CHIPS and Science Act, which set aside $52 billion to bolster domestic semiconductor manufacturing in the U.S.

​​​​​​​A problem to solve: “Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo alluded to the problem during a panel discussion last week at the American Enterprise Institute. ‘The amount of money that China is pouring into subsidizing what will be an excess capacity of mature chips and legacy chips—that’s a problem that we need to be thinking about and working with our allies to get ahead of,’ she said.”

The Department of Energy is loosening proposed energy-efficiency regulations for gas cooktops after reviewing data submitted by one of the NAM’s trade association partners and a utility company, POLITICO (subscription) reports.

What’s going on: “In a notice of data availability to be published in Wednesday’s Federal Register, DOE floated less stringent efficiency requirements for gas stoves. The initial proposal called for a consumption limit of 1,204 … British thermal units, or kBtu, per year, down from the baseline estimate of 1,775 kBtu per year. But the new proposal raises those figures slightly. Now DOE is proposing a limit of 1,343 kBtu per year, down from a recalculated baseline of 1,900 kBtu per year.”

• The Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers and PG&E provided the DOE with data on cooktops with higher consumption rates, which the agency had not used in its initial efficiency testing.
• “Other comments led DOE ‘to better understand’ what features consumers want in a gas stove, including multiple high input rate burners and continuous cast-iron grates,” POLITICO reports.

Why it’s important: Manufacturers would be required to spend more than $2.5 billion to comply with the originally proposed rules, according to the DOE’s own estimates. However, consumers would save just 12.5 cents a month in energy costs.

• The mandates would have been so strict as to make 96% of gas stoves on the market noncompliant.

What Congress has done: In June the House passed the Save Our Gas Stoves Act, which would prevent the DOE from advancing its unworkable stove requirements.

What we’re doing: The NAM has held high-level discussions with policymakers on the importance of feasibility, affordability and consumer choice in rulemaking.

• To that end, in June the NAM and members of the NAM’s Council of Manufacturing Associations and Conference of State Manufacturers Associations created the Manufacturers for Sensible Regulations, which aims to combat the recent regulatory onslaught by federal agencies.

The NAM says: “Manufacturers depend on regulatory clarity and certainty,” said NAM Managing Vice President of Policy Chris Netram.

• Throughout the year, the Department of Energy has proposed an unprecedented slew of regulations, and many were aimed at home appliances. The DOE is now taking steps toward a solution that is less likely to raise production costs significantly for manufacturers, and less likely to reduce the available features, performance and affordability for consumers.”