Input Stories

The S&P Global Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI fell from 52.5 to 51.9 in November, a four-month low, but remained positive. This continues the trend in business conditions with 10 of the past 11 months signaling growth. Factory production and new order growth both decreased in November, with new orders driving the weakening in the PMI. Meanwhile, export orders declined for the fifth consecutive month, increasing downside risks to production in December.

Inventories continued to grow in November as the stock of finished goods rose to the highest level in survey history. At the same time, supplier delivery times lengthened for a third consecutive month, with respondents linking the increase to tariff-related supply constraints. Manufacturers’ input cost inflation declined to the lowest level since February but continued to remain high by historical norms. Meanwhile, selling prices for goods grew in November but stayed below rates seen in recent months. Overall, price increases slowed for manufacturers but accelerated for the service industry.

Overall business activity climbed to a four-month high, edging up from 54.6 in October to 54.8 in November. Again, this reading was accompanied by the largest rise in new business seen in 2025, led by the services sector and an increase in manufacturing output. Overall, new orders growth was the largest seen since December 2024 alongside a buildup of unsold stock. Employment rose for the 11th time in the past 12 months; however, companies showed a reluctance to take on staff as the rate of job creation continues to slow.

Meanwhile, optimism about future business conditions jumped in November to its highest level this year. The optimism reflects reduced concerns about tariffs and political disruptions, boosted by the end of the government shutdown. In addition, companies are hopeful for greater policy support, including lower interest rates and government fiscal stimulus.

New orders for manufactured goods increased 1.4% in August, following a 1.3% decline in July. Meanwhile, new orders for manufactured goods grew 3.3% over the year. When excluding transportation, new orders inched up 0.1% over the month and 0.6 year-over-year in August. Orders for durable goods rose 2.9%, following a 2.8% drop in July. Year to date, durable goods orders are up 7.0%. Nondurable goods orders edged down 0.1% in August after increasing 0.3% in July. Nondurable goods orders are down 0.2% over the year.

New orders for defense aircraft and parts, which continue to be volatile this year, led the increase in durable goods orders, surging 48.4%, following July’s 0.6% bump. In August, the largest monthly decrease occurred in material handling equipment, which fell 5.7% after rising 2.6% the prior month. The largest over-the-year changes occurred in nondefense aircraft and parts (up 129.2%) and mining, oil field and gas field machinery (down 5.3%).

Factory shipments declined 0.1% in August, after stepping up 0.9% in July. Shipments over the year rose 1.1%. Shipments excluding transportation inched down 0.1% in August ,following a 0.5% gain the previous month. Shipments for durable goods fell 0.2% in August, following a 1.5% increase in July, and are up 2.5% year to date. Meanwhile, nondurable goods shipments decreased 0.1% after rising 0.3% the prior month and are down 0.2% year to date.

Unfilled orders for all manufacturing industries increased 0.6% in August, after remaining flat in July. Unfilled orders over the year jumped 7.7%. Inventories rose 1.4% year-over-year. The inventories-to-shipments ratio remained unchanged at 1.56 in August. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio for durable goods moved up to 6.93 in August from 6.86 in July.

Manufacturing activity increased further in the Tenth District in November, with the month-over-month composite index rising 2 points to 8 from October. Meanwhile, expectations for future activity remained positive but declined 5 points to 9. The month-over-month rise in activity was due to increases in both durable and nondurable manufacturing, with production rising in November. On the other hand, the new orders index turned negative. Shipments continued to rise and at a faster pace than the prior month, while new orders for exports decreased, but at a slightly slower pace than the prior month. The Tenth Federal Reserve District encompasses the western third of Missouri; all of Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Wyoming; and the northern half of New Mexico.

The production index rose from 15 to 18, while the new orders index declined from 1 to -2, turning negative for the first time since June. The new orders for exports index remained negative but inched up from -4 to -3 over the month. The employment index jumped in November from 1 to 11, while the average employee workweek index improved from -3 to 1. The backlog of orders weakened from 1 to -4. Both the pace of growth for prices received and prices paid fell month-over-month, with raw material prices decreasing from 41 to 36, and prices received declining 6 points to 13. Over the year, prices received and paid also decreased, moving down to 50 and 64, respectively.

In November, survey respondents were asked special questions about changes in employment and wages. Approximately 35% of firms expect to increase employment, 50% anticipate no change and 15% predict employment to decline. When asked about wages, 12% reported they plan to increase wages and salaries by more than in the past few years, 34% aim to increase by similar amounts in recent years and 29% intend to increase by less than in the past.

Manufacturing activity in New York State increased in November, with the headline general business conditions index rising 8.0 points to 18.7. The new orders index jumped 12.2 points to 15.9, while the shipments index advanced 2.4 points to 16.8. Unfilled orders declined 1.9 points to -5.8, while inventories climbed 7.7 points to 6.7, indicating business inventories have started to grow after shrinking recently. Meanwhile, delivery times continued to increase, and supply availability ticked down 0.8 points to 11.5.

Employment increased slightly in November, with the index for the number of employees inching up 0.4 points to 6.6. At the same time, the average employee workweek surged to 7.7 from -4.1 in October, signaling a notable increase in hours worked. The prices paid index fell 3.4 points to 49.0, while the prices received index moved down 3.2 points to 24.0, reflecting a slowdown in the pace of price increases.

In November, firms’ optimism regarding the future pulled back from last month’s recent high but remained positive. The future business activity index dropped 11.2 points to 19.1. In the next six months, new orders are still expected to increase, but at a weaker pace than last month at 23.3. The future employment index moved up to 11.9, showing continued anticipation for employment growth over the next six months. Meanwhile, input prices are expected to rise at a slightly slower pace, decreasing from 65.0 to 62.5, while selling price expectations are forecasted to decline minimally, falling 2.4 points to 41.3. Furthermore, capital spending plans strengthened in November, moving up from -2.9 to 11.5.

In November, Philadelphia’s regional manufacturing activity continued to decline but at a slower pace than in October. The index for current general business activity stepped up from -12.8 to -1.7 in November. This month, 31.0% of firms reported decreases in activity, while a smaller 29.2% of firms noted increases. The index for new orders declined to its worse reading since April, falling from 18.2 to -8.6, and the index for shipments decreased from 6.0 to -8.7. Meanwhile, the employment index ticked up 1.4 points to 6.0 as the average employee workweek dropped 9.1 points to 3.7.

The prices paid index increased from 49.2 to 56.1, while the prices received index fell in November from 26.8 to 17.7. As has been the case for many months, the prices received index remained lower than the prices paid index, indicating manufacturers have been absorbing a portion of higher costs paid.

Looking ahead, indicators showing expectations for future growth continued to improve from previous months. After moving up 4.7 points in October, expectations for future business activity surged 13.4 points to 49.6, its highest reading in a year. The index saw both a jump in the firms expecting an increase in activity (47.4% to 54.3%) and a drop in the firms expecting a decrease in activity (11.2% to 4.7%). The future new orders index also moved up from 49.8 to 55.6, while the future shipments index stayed the same from October at 48.4. The capital expenditures index inched up from 25.2 to 26.7. Meanwhile, the future prices paid and prices received indexes both jumped, from 59.8 to 75.1 and 45.7 to 56.8, respectively. Additionally, the index for future employment moved up from 21.4 to 35.7.

In November, firms were asked special questions about price sensitivity and anticipated cost changes. Of those responses, 40.0% of firms indicated their customers have become more sensitive to prices since last quarter, and 60.7% anticipate rising industry costs in the next six months. Of those anticipating rising costs, 68.8% think competitors will respond by raising their prices, with the median response for when the prices will be raised being three months.

Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 119,000 in September, coming in above expectations. On the other hand, July and August’s job gains were revised downward by 33,000 to a gain of 72,000 jobs and a loss of 4,000 jobs, respectively. The 12-month average stands at 109,000 job gains per month. The unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 4.4%, while the labor force participation rate inched up 0.1% to 62.4%.

Manufacturing employment slipped by 6,000 in September, the fifth consecutive month of job losses. Furthermore, the collective job losses in July and August of 14,000 were revised downward by 10,000 jobs to a decrease of 24,000 jobs. Manufacturing employment is down 94,000 over the year, the most of any industry. Durable goods manufacturing employment fell by 4,000 in September, while nondurable goods employment edged down by 2,000. The most significant gain in manufacturing in September occurred in beverage, tobacco and leather and allied product manufacturing, which added 3,300 jobs over the month. Meanwhile, the most significant loss occurred in plastics and rubber products manufacturing, which shed 3,500 jobs over the month.

The employment-population ratio ticked up 0.1% to 59.7% but is down 0.4 percentage points from a year ago. Employed persons who are part-time workers for economic reasons decreased by 170,000 to 4.58 million and are down from 4.62 million in September 2024. Native-born employment is up 676,000 over the month and 2,518,000 over the year. Meanwhile, foreign-born employment is down 70,000 over the month and 670,000 over the year.

Average hourly earnings for all private nonfarm payroll employees rose 0.2%, or 9 cents, reaching $36.67. Over the past year, earnings have grown 3.8%. The average workweek for all employees stayed the same at 34.2 hours but edged down 0.1 hour to 39.9 hours for manufacturing employees.

The Trump administration made a flurry of trade announcements late last week. We covered the most prominent among them—the announcement of four deals with Latin American countries—last week, but here are more pertinent details for manufacturers.

Latin America: On Thursday night, the White House issued joint statements describing key terms of framework agreements with El Salvador, Ecuador, Guatemala and Argentina, which will be finalized “in the coming weeks.”

Tariffs on U.S. goods: Ecuador and Argentina commit to reduce or eliminate tariffs on specific U.S. exports. Guatemala and El Salvador do not include tariff commitments because the 2005 U.S. free trade agreement with Central America eliminated tariffs on U.S. exports.

• Ecuador: Ecuador will reduce or eliminate tariffs in key sectors including machinery, health products, information and communication technology goods, chemicals, motor vehicles and certain agricultural products.
• Argentina: Argentina will provide “preferential market access” for U.S. exports of certain medicines, chemicals, machinery, information technology products, medical devices, motor vehicles and agricultural products. The words “reduce” or “eliminate” are not used.

Nontariff barriers: All four countries commit to address nontariff barriers particular to their markets, including:

• Streamlining regulatory approvals for pharmaceuticals and medical devices (Guatemala, El Salvador);
• Accepting U.S. auto standards (Guatemala, El Salvador);
• Implementing intellectual property rights obligations (Guatemala, El Salvador, Ecuador, Argentina);
• Refraining from digital services taxes (Guatemala, El Salvador, Ecuador);
• Ending pre-shipment inspection mandates and expanding the Authorized Economic Operator program to include express delivery (Ecuador); and
• Accepting U.S. standards and conformity assessment (Argentina).

Switzerland and Liechtenstein: The president announced a framework on Friday for a trade deal with Switzerland and the Principality of Liechtenstein focused on tariffs and investments into the U.S. and a commitment to work on nontariff barriers. Key elements include the following:

• Matching the EU 15% IEEPA rate: The U.S. will reduce Switzerland’s International Emergency Economic Powers Act rate to a maximum of 15%, the same as the European Union. Switzerland has made promises to reduce its trade surplus with the U.S.
• Market access for U.S. exports: Switzerland and Liechtenstein “intend to remove a range of tariffs across agriculture and industrial sectors.”
• Investments: Swiss and Liechtenstein companies will invest at least $200 billion into the U.S., “with at least $67 billion worth of investment occurring in 2026.” Important to the Swiss was to partner to increase the use of Registered Apprenticeships and other training programs in key high-growth sectors, including learning from and collaborating with NAM workforce initiatives.
• Nontariff barriers: Switzerland and Liechtenstein intend to address a range of nontariff barriers, including for U.S. medical devices and autos, and to identify and align international standards to improve access for U.S.-manufactured goods exports. They also agreed to “refrain from harmful digital services taxes.”

What’s next: The U.S., Switzerland and Liechtenstein will work to conclude negotiations in early 2026.

South Korea: In July, the U.S. and Korea announced a Korea Strategic Trade and Investment deal. Last week, the White House posted a fact sheet outlining its elements.

IEEPA tariffs: Under the U.S.–Korea FTA (KORUS), Korea already applied zero duties on U.S. goods. Under this deal, the U.S. will do the following:

• Cap the IEEPA Reciprocal rate at 15%, but some goods receive zero or Most Favored Nation rate: The U.S. affirms the IEEPA rate for Korea will be the higher of either the KORUS rate or the U.S. MFN rate or the IEEPA tariff rate of 15%.
• Apply Annex III exemptions to Korea: The U.S. will apply MFN to the products on the list of Potential Tariff Adjustments for Aligned Partners (Annex III), which include generic pharmaceuticals, ingredients and chemical precursors and certain natural resources unavailable in the United States.

Section 232 tariffs: Foreshadowing forthcoming approaches to the pharmaceutical and semiconductor Section 232 investigations, the U.S. agreed to do the following:

• Reduce Section 232 tariffs on autos/parts and timber/lumber: The U.S. affirms the Section 232 rate for Korea will be reduced from 25% to 15%, inclusive of KORUS and MFN, for autos, auto parts, timber, lumber and wood.
• Reduce any Section 232 tariff on pharmaceuticals to 15%: Prospectively, the U.S. will cap any forthcoming Section 232 tariff on Korean pharmaceuticals at 15%.
• Secure favorable terms for imports of semiconductors: For any Section 232 tariffs imposed on semiconductors, including semiconductor manufacturing equipment, the U.S. “intends to provide terms for such Section 232 tariffs on Korea that are no less favorable than terms that may be offered in a future agreement covering a volume of semiconductor trade at least as large as Korea’s, as determined by the U.S.” It’s unclear if this foreshadows a type of tariff-rate quota.

Read more: You can find a complete list of relevant features here.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index edged down 0.6 points to 98.2 in October, remaining slightly above the 52-year average of 98. October’s decrease was due primarily to a decline in earnings trends. Of the 10 components included in the index, four increased, five decreased and one stayed the same. Meanwhile, the Uncertainty Index fell 12 points to 88, the lowest reading of the year but still well above the 51-year average (68) and the average since 2016 (80).

Labor quality was cited as the top concern for small business owners, with 27% reporting it as the most important problem, up 9 points from September. Business owners continue to struggle to fill open positions despite openings trending down, with 32% of small business owners reporting jobs they could not fill in October, unchanged from September. The share of small business owners reporting taxes as a top problem declined 2 points from September to 16%, with some noting high county- and state-level taxes in particular. Meanwhile, inflation again ranked third in the list of concerns, with 12% reporting it as a top problem, down 2 points from September. Looking forward, a net 30% plan to increase prices over the next three months, down 1 point from September.

A net 26% of small business owners reported raising compensation, down 5 points in October after increasing 2 points in September. Meanwhile, 19% of business owners plan to raise compensation in the next three months, unchanged from September. Pressure on profitability worsened in October, falling 9 points from September to a net negative 25%. Among owners reporting lower profits, 33% blamed weaker sales, 16% cited increased material costs, 9% noted price changes for their product(s) or services(s) and 9% said labor costs. Meanwhile, 5% reported their last loan was harder to get than previous attempts, down 2 points from September, and a net 1% of owners cited paying a higher rate on their most recent loan, down 6 points from the prior month.

The outlook for general business conditions fell 3 points to 20%, still a positive read by historical standards. Additionally, 13% reported that it is a good time to expand their business, up 2 points from September, a rather weak reading compared to times of economic expansion. Overall, small business owners remain relatively optimistic, but uncertainty is still high, likely impacted further in October by elections and the government shutdown.

The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 52.5 in October, up slightly from the September reading of 52.0. New orders saw their strongest gain in 20 months, although the gain was concentrated domestically. Exports declined for the fourth consecutive month as tariffs impacted sales to key markets, namely Canada, China and Mexico. Meanwhile, higher prices on inputs led to a faster pace of increase in output prices than in September. Although inflation remains elevated in a historical context, inflation was at its lowest level since February.

Production rose over the month, allowing stocks of finished goods to rise for the third consecutive month and at the quickest rate of increase in the 18 years of the survey’s history. If demand and export sales remain weak, this unprecedented rise in unsold stock could result in a decline in output in future months. Meanwhile, delivery times continued to worsen as a result of transportation delays and import challenges from tariffs.

Uncertainty around tariffs continued to weigh on business confidence, with overall business expectations dropping to the lowest level since April. Despite the uncertainty, investment is expected to help boost production over the next year. Uncertainty and excess capacity for manufacturers contributed to limited hiring. Nonetheless, employment rose modestly for a third consecutive month in October.

In October, global manufacturing activity was relatively unchanged from September, ticking up from 50.7 to 50.8. Output and new orders both rose for the third consecutive month in October. Meanwhile, inventories and lead times helped support improved operating conditions, while staffing levels remained stable for the third consecutive month. On the other hand, new export orders contracted for the seventh consecutive month and at a faster pace than September.

India, Thailand, Vietnam and Greece had the highest PMI readings in October. On the other hand, Canada, Brazil, Russia and Mexico were some of the larger nations to register declines in activity. The upturn in manufacturing output occurred across the consumer, intermediate and investment goods categories for the third consecutive month.

Meanwhile, price pressures eased to a five-month low, with investment goods being the only sector to see an acceleration. Forward-looking indicators were mixed, with business optimism falling to a six-month low despite manufacturers expecting gains in output, inventories and input purchases.