Input Stories

Existing home sales increased 0.8% in May but declined 0.7% from May 2024. Housing inventory grew to 1.54 million units, reflecting a 6.2% rise from April and a 20.3% jump from last year. The median existing home price was $422,800, up 1.3% from last year. The Northeast and Midwest registered increases, while the South and West posted declines.

Single-family home sales rose 1.1% in May and 0.3% over the year, with the median price increasing 1.3% from May 2024 to $427,800. Condo and co-op sales slipped 2.7% to 360,000 units in May and fell 10.0% from last year. Meanwhile, the median price rose 0.7% from the prior year to $371,300.

Homes were typically on the market for 27 days in May, down from 29 days in April but up from 24 days in May 2024. First-time buyers made up 30% of sales in May, down from 34% in April and 31% at the same time last year.

In April, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index recorded a 2.7% annual gain, down slightly from 3.4% in March. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 4.1% in April, down from 4.8% the previous month, while the 20-City Composite rose 3.4% year-over-year, down from 4.1%. Among the 20 cities, New York again posted the highest annual gain at 7.9%, followed by Chicago at 6.0% and Detroit at 5.5%. Tampa again recorded the lowest annual return, with prices falling 2.2%.

On a month-over-month basis, the U.S. National Index rose 0.6%, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both increased 0.7% before seasonal adjustment. Meanwhile, after seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a decrease of 0.4%, while the 20-City and 10-City Composites decreased 0.3%. The differences between raw and seasonally adjusted figures reveal the pressure affordability is putting on expected seasonal patterns. Detroit (+1.5%), Boston (+1.5%) and New York (+1.2%) led monthly price gains, while only Los Angeles (-0.1%) and Phoenix (-0.04%) posted monthly declines.

Affordability constraints hit previously overheated markets hardest in April, while buyers expressed new interest in traditionally stable markets with more reasonable price levels. Mortgage rates continue to hover in the mid-6% range, and monthly payment burdens remain near multi-decade highs relative to incomes, which continue to price out potential buyers. Despite weaker buyer demand, persistent supply shortages are providing a price floor and preventing price corrections.

Consumer confidence decreased 5.4 points in June to 93.0. After increasing sharply last month, the Consumer Confidence Index returned to the downward trend from the prior five consecutive months and erased nearly half of May’s gain. All three components of the index weakened, with the largest decrease in the Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions. The decline in confidence was shared by all age groups and almost all income groups. Additionally, the survey registered declines in all political groups, with the largest decline among Republicans.

The Present Situation Index, reflecting current business and labor market conditions, fell 6.4 points to 129.1. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index, which reflects consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, slipped 4.6 points to 69.0, still below the recession signal threshold of 80.

Views of the current labor market situation are still poor, with 29.2% of consumers saying jobs were “plentiful,” down from May (31.1%), while 18.1% said jobs were “hard to get,” down slightly from 18.4% the prior month. Looking to the future, 25.9% anticipate fewer available jobs in the next six months, down slightly from 26.2% the prior month. Additionally, expectations about future income declined from May, with 16.3% of respondents anticipating increases compared to 12.4% expecting decreases.

Although inflation and high prices remained an important concern in June, more consumers mentioned easing inflation, contributing to inflation expectations edging down from 6.4% in May to 6.0% in June. Mentions of tariffs were still prevalent in written responses, with consumers expressing fears of negative impacts on the economy and prices. References to geopolitics and social unrest increased but were still relatively low on consumers’ list of concerns.

Buying plans for cars stayed the same at the highest level since December 2024, but plans for purchasing homes declined. More consumers were undecided about buying big-ticket items than in May. Meanwhile, 57% of consumers expect interest rates to rise, the highest proportion since October 2023. Overall, consumers’ views of their current financial situation deteriorated slightly from May but remained solid.

Manufacturing activity in the Fifth District contracted in June, but at a slower pace than the previous month, with the composite manufacturing index ticking up from -9 to -7. Additionally, the local business conditions index improved but remained in negative territory, rising from -25 in May to -20 in June. On the other hand, manufacturers are more pessimistic about the future, with the outlook for future local business conditions slipping from -6 in May to -11 this month. The Fifth Federal Reserve District consists of Virginia, Maryland, the Carolinas, the District of Columbia and most of West Virginia.

Among its components, shipments and new orders improved but remained negative, rising from -10 to -3 and from -14 to -12, respectively. Employment soured slightly, falling from -2 to -5, indicating hiring decreased at a faster rate in June. The vendor lead time index remained largely unchanged at 16, after jumping from 1 to 15 in May. The share of firms reporting backlogs edged down from -19 to -20. The average growth rates of prices paid and prices received both jumped in June.

Looking ahead, firms still expect both price indexes to rise in the next 12 months but at a slower pace than forecasted in May. Expectations for future shipments ticked up from 2 to 4, and new orders rose out of negative territory from -3 to 5. Expectations for backlogs also improved, moving from -27 to -21. Meanwhile, firms continued a cautious approach to equipment and software spending, with expectations worsening from -13 to -19. Expectations for spending on capital expenditures also deteriorated to -20. In sum, businesses in the Fifth District are cautiously optimistic about prospects for future growth but are still avoiding making new investment plans.

Manufacturing activity continued to decline in the Tenth District in June, with the month-over-month composite index up one point to -2. Meanwhile, expectations for future activity improved four points to 9. The Tenth Federal Reserve District encompasses the western third of Missouri; all of Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Wyoming; and the northern half of New Mexico. The month-over-month decrease in activity was due primarily to declines in metal and transportation equipment manufacturing, while nonmetallic mineral and petroleum product manufacturing increased. While production, shipments and supplier delivery times increased in June, new orders, employment and backlog of orders declined.

Production jumped 15 points to 5, while new orders inched up from -9 to -2. New export orders increased from -21 to -10 over the month. Employment slumped in June, falling from 3 to -8, while the average employee workweek became less negative, increasing from -9 to -5. The backlog of orders remained negative but recovered 12 points to -11. Both prices received and prices for raw materials increased month-over-month, with raw material prices jumping 17 points to 51 and prices received rising 4 points to 21. Over the year, prices received slipped 1 point to 62, while prices for raw materials rose from 67 to 75.

In June, survey respondents were asked about uncertainty and international trade. Nearly a third of respondents (32%) said they have paused capital investments due to uncertainty. In terms of employment, a quarter have reduced job postings and 21% have reduced headcounts. Furthermore, 11% have canceled ongoing capital investment, and 13% reported taking other measures. On the other hand, 54% of respondents have not made any changes in response to uncertainty, but that may be due to 52% of the firms surveyed reporting that they engage in international trade, either through importing inputs or exporting goods.

The S&P Global Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI stayed the same in June at 52.0, still above the 50-point marker that signals growth in business conditions. Factory production rose for the first time in four months despite new orders slipping slightly from May’s three-month high. Notably, employment boosted PMI this month and rose at the fastest rate in 12 months. Inventories and supplier delivery times also aided the rise in the manufacturing PMI but at a lesser degree than in the prior month. Input costs rose at the fastest pace since July 2022, with close to two-thirds of manufacturers attributing these higher costs to tariffs. Meanwhile, just over half of respondents linked increased selling prices to tariffs.

Overall business activity dipped slightly to 52.8 in June from 53.0 in May. Declining export orders were a drag on growth, especially in services, which suffered the greatest quarterly contraction since late 2022. As in manufacturing, prices also rose sharply in services, which was largely attributed to tariffs but also to higher financing, wage and fuel costs.

Meanwhile, optimism about future business conditions dipped in June, remaining below the survey’s long-run average but above April’s two-and-a-half-year low. Amid trade worries and anxiety about government policies, companies are broadly less optimistic than they were prior to the inauguration. This concern was most acute for services, while manufacturers were slightly more upbeat.

The NAM’s digital transformation division has announced the winners of this year’s Manufacturing Leadership Awards, accolades given to the most outstanding companies, teams and individuals leading manufacturing into the next era.

What’s going on: The Manufacturing Leadership Council named Celanese as its Large Enterprise Manufacturer of the Year, Pure & Gentle, Inc. as the winner in its Small-Medium Enterprise Manufacturer of the Year category and Besu Alemayehu of Merck & Co., Inc. as its 2025 Manufacturing Leader of the Year.

• The winners were announced last week at the MLC’s 2025 Manufacturing Leadership Awards Gala in Marco Island, Florida. It was the culmination of Rethink: Accelerating Digital Transformation in Manufacturing, the organization’s flagship event focused on strategies that advance digital transformation in manufacturing operations.

Why they were picked: Global chemistry company Celanese was chosen owing to its many achievements in digital transformation, including an artificial intelligence-powered digital platform that increases employee productivity and improves decision-making.

• Personal care product manufacturer Pure & Gentle won in its category for use of digital technology to monitor and boost sustainability, as well as for its creation of a work culture that fosters high levels of employee engagement.
• Merck Senior Vice President of Digital Manufacturing and Chief Digital and Technology Officer Alemayehu was recognized for leading digital initiatives that have increased business value and for partnering with senior leadership across the company in key functions.

There’s more: The award ceremony included a memorial tribute to former Lexmark Chief Sustainability Officer John D. Gagel, also a former member of the MLC Board of Governors, recognizing his lasting contributions to manufacturing and transformational leadership.

Our take: “The winners of the Manufacturing Leadership Awards represent the kind of bold and innovative thinking that will propel our industry into the future,” said NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons.

• “Every project and individual recognized in the Manufacturing Leadership Awards represents movement toward a future state of Manufacturing 4.0,” said MLC Founder, Executive Director and Vice President David R. Brousell.

Read more: See a full list of this year’s winners and finalists here.

Building permits fell 2.0% in May and 1.0% over the year. Permits for single-family homes in May declined 2.7% from April and 6.4% over the year. Meanwhile, permits for buildings with five or more units increased 1.4% from April and 13.0% over the year.

In May, housing starts decreased 9.8% from April and fell 4.6% from May 2024. Starts for single-family homes were largely unchanged from April, rising just 0.4%, but they dropped 7.3% from May 2024. On the other hand, starts for buildings with five or more units plummeted 30.4% over the month but rose 5.0% over the year.

Meanwhile, housing completions increased 5.4% over the month but slipped 2.2% over the year. Single-family home completions rose 8.1% from April but were similar to the May 2024 level, up just 0.1%. Completions for buildings with five or more units ticked up 0.2% over the month but fell 6.7% from one year ago.

U.S. import prices stayed the same in May, after rising 0.1% in April, with higher nonfuel prices offsetting lower fuel prices. Over the past year, import prices inched up 0.2%. Meanwhile, U.S. export prices decreased 0.9% in May, with lower nonagricultural export prices more than offsetting higher agricultural export prices. Over the past year, export prices increased 1.7%.

In May, U.S. import prices for manufacturing rose just 0.6% over the year, but there were significant divergences in prices across the industry. Petroleum and coal products manufacturing experienced the most significant U.S. import price declines in May, falling 20% over the year. On the other hand, the greatest increase in U.S. import prices in May occurred in primary metal manufacturing, which rose 11.2% over the year. Meanwhile, U.S. export prices for manufacturing in May increased 2.5% over the year.

Fuel import prices fell 4.0% over the month in May, the largest monthly decline since falling 7.2% in September 2024. Lower prices for natural gas and petroleum drove the decline. Prices for fuel imports plummeted 15.7% from May 2024, the largest over-the-year decline since September 2024. Import prices for petroleum decreased 3.7% over the month in May and 17.4% from last year. Meanwhile, natural gas prices plunged 9.0% in May but jumped 88.4% over the year.

Nonfuel import prices increased 0.3% in May, after rising 0.4% in April. Higher prices for nonfuel industrial supplies and materials, capital goods, consumer goods and automotive vehicles more than offset declines in foods, feeds and beverages. The price index for nonfuel imports grew 1.7% over the past year, led by higher prices for nonfuel industrial supplies and materials; foods, feeds and beverages; capital goods; and automotive vehicles.

After improving 0.4% in April, agricultural export prices rose 0.2% in May. Over the past 12 months, agricultural export prices increased 1.8%. Meanwhile, nonagricultural export prices slid 1.0% in May. Lower prices for nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials more than offset higher prices for capital goods, consumer goods and automotive vehicles. Over the past year, nonagricultural export prices advanced 1.7% and have not declined on a 12-month basis since September 2024.

Manufacturing activity in New York state continued to decline in June. The headline general business activity index worsened from May, falling from -9.2 to -16.0. Meanwhile, the new orders and shipments indexes contracted after growing the previous month, with new orders decreasing from 7.0 to -14.2 and shipments declining from 3.5 to -7.2. Unfilled orders also declined 13.1 points to -8.3, while delivery times inched up from 1.0 to 1.8. Inventories fell from 4.8 to 0.9, but supply availability improved from -11.4 to -8.3.

The index for the number of employees rose into positive territory, improving from -5.1 to 4.7, while the average employee workweek improved but remained negative, rising from -3.4 to -1.5. Input prices ticked down 12.2 points to 46.8 after reaching the highest level in two years last month. Meanwhile, selling prices rose from 22.9 to 26.6 points, a reflection that prices paid increased at a slower pace while the pace of prices received quickened.

Looking forward, firms’ expectations vastly improved after a gloomy outlook in May and April. The index for future business activity turned positive, rising 23.2 points to 21.2. New orders are similarly expected to increase, with the forward-looking indicator rising from -2.7 to 26.1. Nevertheless, capital spending plans fell further into negative territory, dropping 0.6 points to -7.3. Employment expectations also ticked down from 11.6 to 10.4, while the average employee workweek outlook strengthened but remained negative, rising from -4.8 to -1.8. Input prices are expected to remain high but retracted slightly from 66.7 to 59.6. On the other hand, selling price expectations rose 6.1 points to 41.3. Meanwhile, supply availability is still forecasted to contract in the next six months but at a slower pace than predicted in May.