Input Stories

U.S. import prices stayed the same in September, after advancing 0.1% in August, with lower fuel import prices offsetting higher nonfuel import prices. Over the past year, import prices rose 0.3%. Meanwhile, U.S. export prices also remained the same in September, after ticking up 0.1% in August. Over the past year, export prices climbed 3.8%, the largest over-the-year rise since December 2022.

In September, U.S. import prices for manufacturing rose 0.3% over the year, but with significant divergences in prices across the industry, while U.S. import prices for nonmanufacturing decreased 2.2% over the year. Beverage and tobacco product manufacturing experienced the most significant over-the-year U.S. import price declines in September, falling 13.8%. On the other hand, the greatest yearly increase in U.S. import prices occurred in primary metal manufacturing, which advanced 12.1% from September 2024. Meanwhile, U.S. export prices for manufacturing in September grew 4.1% over the year, with primary metal manufacturing export prices exhibiting the largest rise (29%).

Fuel import prices decreased 1.5% over the month in September, following a 0.5% decline in August and a 2.8% increase in July. Lower prices for petroleum and natural gas drove the drop, falling 1.5% and 3.0%, respectively. Over the past year, fuel import prices have fallen 4.0%. Import petroleum prices dropped 5.1% over the year in September, while natural gas prices surged 62.9% over that period. Nonfuel import prices rose 0.2% in September, following a 0.1% uptick in August. Higher prices for consumer goods and nonfuel industrial supplies and materials more than offset lower prices for capital goods and foods, feeds and beverages. Nonfuel import prices increased 0.8% on an over-the-year basis.

After declining 0.2% in August, agricultural export prices advanced 0.3% in September. Over the past 12 months, agricultural export prices rose 4.4%. Meanwhile, nonagricultural export prices stayed the same in September. Higher prices for consumer goods, nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials and capital goods drove the increase. Over the past year, nonagricultural export prices jumped 3.7%, the largest over-the-year increase since December 2022.

New orders for manufactured goods inched up 0.2% in September, following a 1.3% increase in August. At the same time, new orders for manufactured goods grew 3.5% over the year. When excluding transportation, new orders rose 0.2% over the month and 0.8% over the year. Orders for durable goods moved up 0.5%, following a 3.0% increase in August. Year to date, durable goods orders are up 7.3%. Meanwhile, nondurable goods orders ticked down 0.1% in September, after falling 0.4% in August. Nondurable goods are down 0.1% over the year.

New orders for defense aircraft and parts led the increase in durable goods orders for a second consecutive month, jumping 30.9%, following August’s 48.3% surge. In September, the largest monthly decrease occurred in mining, oil field and gas field machinery, which fell 17.8%, after increasing 22.8% the prior month. The largest over-the-year changes occurred in nondefense aircraft and parts (up 118%) and photographic equipment (down 5.7%).

Factory shipments stayed the same in September, after stepping down 0.3% in August. Shipments over the year rose 1.4%. Shipments excluding transportation increased 0.2% in September, following a 0.3% decrease the previous month. Shipments for durable goods improved 0.1% in September, following a 0.1% decline in August, and are up 3.0% year to date. Meanwhile, nondurable goods shipments inched down 0.1% after falling 0.4% the prior month and are down 0.1% year to date.

Unfilled orders for all manufacturing industries increased 0.7% in September after a similar rise in August. Unfilled orders over the year jumped 8.3%. Inventories ticked down 0.1%, after a similar decrease the prior month, and the inventories-to-shipments ratio remained the same at 1.56. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio for durable goods increased from 6.93 in August to 6.98 in September.

The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 52.2 in November, down from the October reading of 52.5. New orders rose in November, with manufacturers noting gains among both existing and new clients. However, exports declined for the fifth consecutive month, as tariffs were reported to have led to the steepest drop in new export orders since July. Meanwhile, prices on inputs continued to increase, but the degree of pass-through weakened, and selling price inflation was near lows for this year. In sum, the rate of inflation remained elevated from a historical context in November.

Production continued to rise, while sales remained weak, allowing stocks of finished goods to rise for the fourth consecutive month, beating October’s record for the quickest rate of increase in the survey’s 18-year history. In anticipation of higher future production, employment growth in November was the steepest in three months and contributed to a decline in backlogs. Meanwhile, delivery times continued to worsen for a third consecutive month, a result of import challenges from tariffs.

Plans for new investments and products led to an increase in business confidence, hitting its highest level since June. At the same time, the end of the federal government shutdown was noted as supplementing the boost in confidence, with manufacturers hopeful of improved policy support and political stability.

In November, growth in global manufacturing activity weakened from October, decreasing from 50.9 to 50.5. Output and new orders both expanded for the fourth consecutive month in November. Meanwhile, inventories signaled contractions, and lead times continued to show strains on global supply chains, lengthening for the 18th consecutive month. Employment fell as lower staffing levels in China, the U.K. and the Eurozone contrasted higher staffing in Japan, India and the U.S. On the other hand, new export orders contracted for the eighth consecutive month but at a slower pace than October.

Thailand, India, Colombia and Vietnam had the highest PMI readings in November. On the other hand, Mexico, Germany, Russia and Canada were some of the larger nations to register declines in activity. The upturn in manufacturing output occurred for consumer and intermediate goods industries, while investment goods saw a decrease in November.

Meanwhile, price pressures rose from lower levels in October and accelerated faster in developed nations compared to emerging markets in November. Forward-looking indicators were positive, with business optimism hitting a five-month high but remaining below long-run averages for the 20th consecutive month.

In November, the U.S. manufacturing sector contracted for the ninth consecutive month and at a faster pace than the prior month, with the ISM Manufacturing^® PMI decreasing to 48.2% from 48.7% in October. Two of the four demand indicators improved in November, with the New Export Orders and Customers’ Inventories Indexes rising to 46.2% and 44.7%, respectively. Meanwhile, the New Orders and Backlog of Orders Indexes contracted at faster rates. On the other hand, the Production Index returned to growth after contracting in October, increasing from 48.2% to 51.4%. 

The New Orders Index contracted for the third consecutive month and at a faster rate, falling 2.0 percentage points from October. The index hasn’t shown consistent growth since a 24-month streak of expansion ended in May 2022. Of the six-largest manufacturing sectors, three—computer and electronic products; machinery; and food, beverage and tobacco products—reported an increase in new orders. Respondents continued to note concern about near-term demand, primarily driven by tariff costs and uncertainty.

The New Export Orders Index contracted for the ninth consecutive month but at a slower pace, 1.7 percentage points higher than October. The continued contraction is likely indicative of dampened demand amid ongoing trade tensions and policy uncertainty. Meanwhile, the Imports Index contracted for the eighth consecutive month but at a slightly slower rate, up 3.5 percentage points to 48.9% in November. Imports continued to contract as a result of tariff pricing and weaker demand compared to prior months.

The Employment Index contracted for the 10th consecutive month and at a faster pace than the prior month, down 2.0 percentage points from October to 44%. Of the six-largest manufacturing sectors, two—computer and electronic products and machinery—reported increased employment. Companies continued to focus on layoffs and attrition to restrict headcounts due to uncertainty around near- to mid-term demand. For every comment on hiring, 3.4 respondents noted reduced headcounts.

The Prices Index increased 0.5 percentage points to 58.5%, indicating raw materials prices grew for the 14th straight month in November, and at a faster pace. Of the six-largest manufacturing sectors, five—machinery; computer and electronic products; transportation equipment; chemical products; and food, beverage and tobacco products—reported increased prices. The increase continues to be driven by higher steel and aluminum prices impacting the entire supply chain, as well as the tariffs applied to most imported goods. Roughly 27.2% of companies reported paying higher prices, slightly down from 27.3% in October but still up from 21% in January.

Industrial production ticked up 0.1% in September, while manufacturing output stayed the same after inching up 0.1% in August. At 97.0% of its 2017 average, manufacturing production in September rose just 1.5% from the same month last year. Capacity utilization for manufacturing edged down to 75.5%, down 0.1 percentage point from August but up 1.0% over the past year. Capacity utilization remains 2.7 percentage points below its long-term average from 1972 to 2024.

In September, major market groups posted mixed results. Consumer goods production decreased 0.6%, while business equipment output jumped 0.7%. The fall in production of consumer durables (down 1.7%) was primarily led by automotive products’ output, declining 2.9%, while the index for consumer nondurables moved down a more modest 0.3%. Meanwhile, all major categories among business equipment improved, and the index overall moved up at an annual rate of 5.9% in the third quarter, a third consecutive quarterly increase. At the same time, the indexes for construction supplies and materials rose 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively, while the index for business supplies edged down 0.1% in September.

Durable goods manufacturing ticked up 0.1% in September and 3.0% from the year prior. Monthly growth was greatest for electrical equipment, appliances and components (up 1.8%), while wood products posted the largest decline at 3.5%. Meanwhile, led by a 1.3% drop in printing and support output, nondurable goods manufacturing decreased 0.1% in September but rose 0.3% from September 2024.

The Manufacturing Institute—the workforce development and education affiliate of the National Association of Manufacturers—has announced the two outstanding manufacturing leaders who will serve as chair and vice chair of the MI’s STEP Ahead Awards.

• Biogen Executive Vice President, Head of Pharmaceutical Operations and Technology Nicole Murphy will serve as chair, and AstraZeneca Senior Vice President and Global Head of Pharmaceutical Technology and Development Dafni Bika will serve as vice chair.

The background: The STEP Ahead Awards honor remarkable women and allies in manufacturing, who are advancing the industry everywhere from the shop floor to the C-suite. Honorees are nominated by their colleagues for their exceptional leadership in their workplaces and communities.

The chair: With more than three decades of experience and leadership in the biopharmaceutical industry, Murphy is an expert in manufacturing operations, engineering, chemistry, manufacturing and controls process development and regulatory, quality and supply chain management.

• She has achieved improvements in safety and quality, optimized production processes and helped ensure a reliable supply of potentially lifesaving medicines for patients around the globe.
• Thanks to her strategic leadership and commitment to mentorship and talent development, Murphy has not only achieved impressive business results but also set up the next generation for further successes.

What she’s saying: “It is a tremendous honor to serve as chair for the STEP Ahead Awards program and to celebrate the remarkable women and allies who are shaping the future of manufacturing,” said Murphy.

• “In today’s ever-evolving and high-paced manufacturing environment, it is critical we recognize women and allies at all levels for their innovative spirit and leadership—they are building the talent pipeline of manufacturing leaders. I look forward to learning from their inspiring stories and recognizing the impact they’re having on manufacturing, technology and society.”

The vice chair: Bika also brings more than 25 years of experience in biopharmaceutical manufacturing, the development and commercialization of new products and digital innovation.

What she’s saying: “I’m honored to be appointed vice chair of the MI’s 2026 STEP Ahead Awards,” said Bika. “This program recognizes the women and allies who are shaping the future of manufacturing with bold creativity and innovation.”

• “I’m deeply committed to advancing and inspiring the next generation in STEM to pursue careers in our industry, and I look forward to celebrating the remarkable leaders who will be honored next year.”

The MI says: “We are so fortunate to have two inspirational leaders—both working at the cutting edge of biopharmaceutical manufacturing—agree to lead and advise on the 2026 STEP Ahead Awards,” said MI President and Executive Director Carolyn Lee.

• “Both Nicole and Dafni embody all that manufacturing has to offer as a career path. They are making these opportunities visible and inspiring a future generation of manufacturing team members.”

Stay tuned: The 2026 awardees will be announced ahead of the STEP Ahead Awards Gala on April 23, 2026, at The Anthem in Washington, D.C.

San Francisco on Tuesday filed a lawsuit against some of the nation’s biggest food and beverage manufacturers, accusing them of creating a public nuisance through deceptive marketing of ultra-processed foods (Reuters, subscription).

What’s going on: “City Attorney David Chiu filed the lawsuit in San Francisco Superior Court, alleging the companies employed tactics similar to those used by the tobacco industry to design and market products intended to addict consumers.”

• Chiu named Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Kraft Heinz, Mondelez and six other firms in the suit, averring all broke “California laws on public nuisance and deceptive marketing.”
• The suit says that cancer, obesity and diabetes rates have risen in tandem with the proliferation of “ultra-processed” snack foods.
• The city is asking for “restitution and civil penalties to offset” health-care costs, as well as a court order stopping the companies from using “deceptive marketing” and mandating that they change their advertising practices.

However: “The definition of ultra-processed foods remains under debate,” according to the article, and efforts underway by the Department of Agriculture and the Food and Drug Administration to define the term could backfire, as the NAM said in October.

• The push could shift nutrition programs and policies away from food composition and toward subjective opinions about processing methods.

The NAM says: “Allegations of public nuisance against food and beverage manufacturers that fully comply with FDA safety and nutrition standards are an abuse of the legal system,” said NAM Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary Linda Kelly.

• “Frivolous and agenda-driven lawsuits do not improve public health or safety. Instead, they create confusion for consumers and undermine the regulatory certainty manufacturers need to provide safe and nutritious foods that are affordable and accessible for American families.”

NAM in the news: Fox Business covered the NAM’s comments.

In September, the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index recorded a 1.3% annual gain, the weakest growth since mid-2023. The 10-City composite saw an annual increase of 2.0% in September, down from 2.1% the previous month, while the 20-City composite rose 1.4% year-over-year, down from 1.6%. Among the 20 cities, Chicago posted the highest annual gain at 5.5%, followed by New York at 5.2% and Boston at 4.1%. Tampa again posted the lowest annual return, with prices falling 4.1%.

On a month-over-month basis, the U.S. National Index declined 0.3% before seasonal adjustment. At the same time, the 10-City and 20-City Composites both fell 0.5%. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index and 10-City Composite both grew 0.2%, while the 20-City Composite inched up 0.1%.

The combination of high financing costs and prices remaining near record highs continues to limit activity. Before seasonal adjustment, all 20 cities saw price declines in September. The Northeast and Midwest, relying on strong job markets, continue to outperform other regions. Meanwhile, the Sun Belt and Western markets continued declining, including Tampa (down 4.1%), Phoenix (down 2.0%), Dallas (down 1.3%) and Los Angeles (down 1.3%).

Despite strength earlier this year, high mortgage rates have eroded momentum across most regions. Home price gains continue to trail inflation, and the gap is the widest seen since the two measures diverged in June. The housing market appears to have found a new equilibrium of minimal price growth and declines in some regions.

Consumer confidence decreased 6.8 points in November to 88.7, its lowest level since April. Among its components, the Present Situation Index and Expectations Index both declined as consumers’ outlook regarding future business conditions and expectations for increased household incomes worsened notably.

The Present Situation Index, reflecting current business and labor market conditions, decreased 4.3 points to 126.9. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index, which reflects consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, fell 8.6 points to 63.2, remaining below the recession signal threshold of 80 since February.

Views of the current labor market situation weakened slightly, with 27.6% of consumers saying jobs were “plentiful,” down from October (28.6%), while 17.9% said jobs were “hard to get,” slightly lower than October (18.3%) but up from 14.5% in January. Looking to the future, 27.5% expect fewer available jobs in the next six months, down from 28.8% the prior month.

Mentions of high prices, inflation, tariffs and trade continued to top the list of topics influencing consumers’ views of the economy. Meanwhile, labor market mentions declined but remained elevated. Comments on U.S. politics continued, with increased mentions of the government shutdown. Consumers’ 12-month inflation expectations increased in November, and the proportion of consumers expecting interest rates to rise ticked down to about 50%. At the same time, the share of consumers who believe a recession is “very likely” over the next year fell, but the share thinking the economy is already in a recession rose for the fourth consecutive month.

Buying plans for cars stepped down in November, as did purchasing plans for homes. Consumers’ plans for buying big-ticket items fell in November, with purchasing plans for household appliances and most electronics decreasing. Consumers’ intentions to purchase more services also declined following an uptick in October; however, planned spending on health care jumped to the second-highest service expenditure. Overall, consumers’ views of their current and future financial situation weakened from October.