Input Stories

Existing home sales decreased 5.9% in March and 2.4% from March 2024. Housing inventory grew to 1.33 million units, reflecting an 8.1% rise from February and a 19.8% jump from last year. The median existing home price was $403,700, up 2.7% from last year, with all four U.S. regions reporting price increases.

Single-family home sales fell 6.4% in March, with the median price increasing 2.9% from March 2024 to $408,000. Condo and co-op sales stayed the same at 380,000 units in March but were down 5.0% from last year. Meanwhile, the median price rose 1.5% from the prior year to $363,000.

Homes were typically on the market for 36 days in March, down from 42 days in February but up from 33 days in March 2024. First-time buyers made up 32% of sales in March, up slightly from 31% in February and the same as last year. According to NAR’s Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, 2024 had the lowest share of first-time home buyers on record at 24%.

All-cash sales accounted for 26% of transactions in March, down from 32% in February and 28% in March 2024. Meanwhile, investors or second-home buyers represented 15% of homes purchased in March, down from 16% in February and unchanged from March 2024. Distressed sales, including foreclosures and short sales, represented 3% of purchases in March, unchanged from February but up from 2% last year.

The S&P Global Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI rose from 50.2 in March to 50.7 in April, a two-month high and above the 50-point marker that signals growth in business conditions. Factory production edged back into growth after declining last month. New orders also rose at an increased rate, due to higher domestic orders. Meanwhile, falling export sales were linked widely to new tariffs. The Flash PMI is based on 85% of survey responses for the monthly PMI survey, so although not final, it can give an indication of where activity is trending.

Overall business activity slowed to a 16-month low in April. The average price for goods and services in manufacturing rose to a 29-month high, as suppliers navigate tariff-based price hikes and a weakened exchange rate. Manufacturing employment also declined for the first time since October. Meanwhile, optimism about future business conditions fell for the third month in a row and to the lowest point since July 2022. Sentiment was more resilient for manufacturing than in services, with some companies reporting optimism about protectionist trade policies. Nonetheless, factory confidence fell to its lowest point since last August amid rising costs, supply challenges, weak economic growth and lower export demand.

Manufacturing activity in the Fifth District slowed further in April. The composite manufacturing index fell from -4 in March to -13 in April. Manufacturers continue to be less optimistic looking ahead, with the outlook for future local business conditions falling from -22 in March to -37 in April. The Fifth Federal Reserve District consists of Virginia, Maryland, the Carolinas, the District of Columbia and most of West Virginia.

Among its components, shipments and new orders fell markedly from -7 to -17 and from -4 to -15, respectively. Employment declined from -1 to -5, indicating hiring decreased further in April. The vendor lead time index dropped from 12 to 1 in April, while the share of firms reporting backlogs fell from -1 to -24. Companies are further depressed about local business conditions, with the index declining from -13 to -21. The average growth rates of prices paid and received increased.

Looking ahead, firms still expect both price indexes to rise in the next 12 months. Expectations for future shipments and new orders both declined considerably and turned negative, suggesting that firms anticipate significant deterioration in these areas over the next six months. Expectations for backlogs fell, moving from -6 to -30. Meanwhile, firms exhibited a more cautious approach to equipment and software spending, with expectations slipping from -8 to -16. Similarly, expectations for spending on capital expenditures edged down from -2 to -15. In sum, businesses in the Fifth District are much more hesitant about the prospects for future growth and making new investments.

Manufacturing activity fell modestly in the Tenth District in April, with the month-over-month composite index down two points to -4. Meanwhile, expectations for future activity declined slightly but remained positive. The Tenth Federal Reserve District encompasses the western third of Missouri; all of Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Wyoming; and the northern half of New Mexico. The month-over-month decrease in activity continued to be due primarily to declines in nondurable manufacturing, specifically food and print manufacturing. Most month-over-month indexes were negative, apart from prices, supplier delivery times and inventories for finished goods. Written responses highlight significant price pressure from tariffs, with respondents expecting potential layoffs and price increases for consumers.

Production fell six points to -5, while new orders inched up from -12 to -11. Employment declined at a faster rate in April, falling from -4 to -11, while the average employee workweek turned negative, decreasing from 6 to -6. The backlog of orders worsened from -6 to -20. The year-over-year composite index for factory activity dipped from -7 to -8. Prices received increased both month-over-month and year-over-year in April, while prices for raw materials rose year-over-year in April but were unchanged month-over-month.

In April, survey respondents were asked about business uncertainty and demand expectations. An overwhelming majority of respondents, about 86%, said there was more uncertainty than at the beginning of the year, with nearly 45% saying there was much more uncertainty. Just 11% reported no change, while roughly 2% said there was less uncertainty. When asked about demand expectations, 18% of firms said that demand was significantly lower, and 35% said that expectations were only slightly lower. Meanwhile, 23% said demand was unchanged, and 23% reported slightly higher demand.

Building permits rose 1.6% in March but fell 0.2% over the year. Permits for single-family homes in March declined 2.0% from February and slipped 0.6% over the year. Meanwhile, permits for buildings with five or more units increased 10.1% from February but decreased 0.9% over the year.

In March, housing starts fell 11.4% from February but rose 1.9% from March 2024. Similarly, starts for single-family homes slumped 14.2% from February and declined 9.7% from March 2024. Meanwhile, starts for buildings with five or more units were flat over the month but soared 47.8% over the year.

Meanwhile, housing completions decreased 2.1% over the month but rose 3.9% over the year. On the other hand, single-family home completions grew 0.9% from February and 9.6% from March 2024. Completions for buildings with five or more units fell 8.2% over the month and 4.4% from one year ago.

U.S. import prices fell 0.1% in March, after increasing 0.2% in February, with higher nonfuel prices offsetting lower fuel prices. This is the first monthly decline since September 2024. Over the past year, import prices rose 0.9%. Meanwhile, U.S. export prices were flat in March, following a 0.5% rise in February. Over the past year, export prices increased 2.4%.

Fuel import prices fell 2.3% in March, after rising 1.6% in February. Lower prices for natural gas and petroleum led to this decline. Prices for fuel imports dropped 5.2% over the past year. Import prices for petroleum decreased 1.5% over the month in March. Meanwhile, natural gas prices plummeted 19.8% in March but jumped 88.5% over the year.

Nonfuel import prices ticked up 0.1% in March, for the second consecutive month. Higher prices for capital goods; nonfuel industrial supplies; and foods, feeds and beverages more than offset lower prices for consumer goods and automotive vehicles in March. The price index for nonfuel imports increased 1.5% over the past year.

After rising 0.6% in February, agricultural export prices were unchanged in March. Over the past 12 months, agricultural export prices increased 1.4%. Meanwhile, nonagricultural export prices edged down 0.1% in March, the first decline since September 2024. Higher prices for consumer goods, capital goods and automotive vehicles were offset by lower prices for nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials and nonagricultural foods. Over the past year, nonagricultural export prices advanced 2.5%.

Manufacturing activity in New York state continued to decline in April. While the headline general business activity index rose from the previous month, it remained negative at -8.1. New orders and shipments also continued to contract but at a slower rate than the previous month, with new orders increasing from -14.9 to -8.8 and shipments rising from -8.5 to -2.9. Unfilled orders grew from -2.0 to 4.1, while inventories fell from 13.3 to 7.4. Delivery times ticked down from 1.0 to 0.0, while supply availability dropped from -1.0 to -5.7.

The index for the number of employees, still in negative territory, edged up from -4.1 to -2.6, but the average employee workweek dropped from -2.5 to -9.1. Meanwhile, both input and selling price increases picked up, reflected in the prices paid index rising 5.9 points to 50.8, the fastest pace of increase in more than two years, and the prices received index advanced 6.3 points to 28.7.

Firms are less optimistic than they have been in previous months. The index for future business activity decreased 20.1 points to -7.4, falling a cumulative 44 points in the past three months. Employment and the average employee workweek are forecasted to weaken, continuing a trend from the previous month. New orders are anticipated to decrease, falling from 15.5 to -6.6, and capital spending plans are flat. Input prices are expected to remain high. Meanwhile, supply availability is forecasted to continue to contract in the next six months.

In April, Philadelphia’s regional manufacturing activity declined after modest increases the previous month. The index for current general business activity fell from 12.5 to -26.4, the third consecutive monthly decline in the index and the lowest reading since April 2023. Nearly 39% of firms reported decreased activity this month, while 12.5% saw increases in April compared to 18.1% reporting increases in March. Meanwhile, 40.6% experienced no change. The indexes for new orders and shipments both plummeted from 8.7 and 2.0 to -34.2 and -9.1, respectively. On the other hand, employment expectations were steady, following a surge in March. The average employee workweek index dropped from 8.7 to -12.7.

The prices paid index edged up from 48.3 to 51.0, the highest reading since July 2022, while the prices received index ticked up one point to 30.7. As has been the case for many months, the prices received index remains lower than the prices paid index, indicating manufacturers have been absorbing a sizable portion of those higher costs paid.

Looking ahead, future indicators were mixed. The index for future general business activity rose from 5.6 to 6.9 in April. Compared to the previous month, a slightly higher proportion of firms (29.0%) expect decreases in activity, compared to last month’s reading of 25.8%, while 35.9% expect activity to improve. The future new orders index ticked up from 2.3 to 6.6 following March’s plunge, while the future shipments index edged down from 11.3 to 5.0. Meanwhile, the index for future employment tumbled from 17.3 to -0.6, the lowest reading since February 2016. The capital expenditures index fell from 13.4 to 2.0. The future prices paid index rose from 44.6 to 63.1, while the future prices received index surged from 39.7 to 67.7, indicating manufacturers hold heightened concerns about rising future costs.

Industrial production decreased 0.3% in March but was up 5.5% in the first quarter. Meanwhile, manufacturing output rose 0.3%, wherein growth in computer and electronic products, motor vehicles and parts and apparel and leather was partially offset by declines in wood products, textile and product mills and petroleum and coal products. At 103.9% of its 2017 average, total industrial production in March rose 1.3% from the same month last year. Capacity utilization slipped to 77.8%, down from last month, but increased 1.3% over the past year. Capacity remains 1.8 percentage points below its long-term average from 1972 to 2024.

In March, major market groups had mixed growth. Among consumer goods, the production of durables increased modestly at 0.5%, held down by a 2.0% decline in home electronics, while the index for nondurables fell 1.4%, with the greatest decrease in energy (-5.9%). The business equipment index improved 1.7% in March, with transit equipment up 4.5% after rising 8.6% in February and 7.7% in January.

Durable goods manufacturing advanced 0.6% in March, with a large decline in wood products (-3.0%) offset by increases in aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment (1.8%) and motor vehicles and parts (1.2%). Nondurable goods manufacturing was flat in March. Manufacturing capacity utilization rose 0.2 percentage points to 77.3% but remains 0.9 percentage points below the long-term average.

  The Manufacturing Leadership Council, the NAM’s digital transformation division, has announced its list of finalists for the Manufacturing Leadership Awards—an honor given to world-class manufacturing companies and leaders who are revolutionizing the industry’s digital capabilities.

The big reveal: All finalists will be celebrated at the ML Awards gala on June 18 in San Marco Island, Florida, where the winners will be announced.

• The awards given include the Future of Manufacturing Award, the Manufacturing Leader of the Year, the Small/Medium Enterprise Manufacturer of the Year and Large Enterprise Manufacturer of the Year.
• Manufacturers can also win awards in several categories, including artificial intelligence vision and strategy, business model transformation, collaborative ecosystems and more.
• Award nominations were judged by a distinguished group of manufacturing leaders from across the industry.
• You can see a complete list of finalists here.

Rethink: Ahead of the Awards gala, the MLC will be hosting Rethink, where manufacturing leaders gather to learn best practices and make connections. The star-studded lineup includes:

• A keynote address on digital transformation from Siemens USA President and CEO Barbara Humpton;
• A talk on “How Wall Street Views Digital Transformation in Manufacturing” by Goldman Sachs Managing Director, Technology, Media and Telecommunications Group Jack Anstey;
• An inside look at Hershey’s digital factory, featuring The Hershey Company Vice President of Manufacturing and Engineering and MLC Board of Governors member Will Bonifant; and
• Numerous case studies, best practice sessions, networking opportunities and more.

The last word: “In times of business uncertainty, manufacturers find that investments in digital technology can pay off for improving efficiency and overall performance and innovation,” said MLC Founder, Vice President and Executive Director David Brousell. “In our 21st season of recognizing excellence in Manufacturing 4.0, it is remarkable to witness the innovative methodologies that manufacturers are continually developing to propel their digital transformation initiatives.”

Join us: If you’d like to learn more about Rethink or register for the conference, go here.