Input Stories

In September, the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index recorded a 1.3% annual gain, the weakest growth since mid-2023. The 10-City composite saw an annual increase of 2.0% in September, down from 2.1% the previous month, while the 20-City composite rose 1.4% year-over-year, down from 1.6%. Among the 20 cities, Chicago posted the highest annual gain at 5.5%, followed by New York at 5.2% and Boston at 4.1%. Tampa again posted the lowest annual return, with prices falling 4.1%.

On a month-over-month basis, the U.S. National Index declined 0.3% before seasonal adjustment. At the same time, the 10-City and 20-City Composites both fell 0.5%. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index and 10-City Composite both grew 0.2%, while the 20-City Composite inched up 0.1%.

The combination of high financing costs and prices remaining near record highs continues to limit activity. Before seasonal adjustment, all 20 cities saw price declines in September. The Northeast and Midwest, relying on strong job markets, continue to outperform other regions. Meanwhile, the Sun Belt and Western markets continued declining, including Tampa (down 4.1%), Phoenix (down 2.0%), Dallas (down 1.3%) and Los Angeles (down 1.3%).

Despite strength earlier this year, high mortgage rates have eroded momentum across most regions. Home price gains continue to trail inflation, and the gap is the widest seen since the two measures diverged in June. The housing market appears to have found a new equilibrium of minimal price growth and declines in some regions.

Consumer confidence decreased 6.8 points in November to 88.7, its lowest level since April. Among its components, the Present Situation Index and Expectations Index both declined as consumers’ outlook regarding future business conditions and expectations for increased household incomes worsened notably.

The Present Situation Index, reflecting current business and labor market conditions, decreased 4.3 points to 126.9. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index, which reflects consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, fell 8.6 points to 63.2, remaining below the recession signal threshold of 80 since February.

Views of the current labor market situation weakened slightly, with 27.6% of consumers saying jobs were “plentiful,” down from October (28.6%), while 17.9% said jobs were “hard to get,” slightly lower than October (18.3%) but up from 14.5% in January. Looking to the future, 27.5% expect fewer available jobs in the next six months, down from 28.8% the prior month.

Mentions of high prices, inflation, tariffs and trade continued to top the list of topics influencing consumers’ views of the economy. Meanwhile, labor market mentions declined but remained elevated. Comments on U.S. politics continued, with increased mentions of the government shutdown. Consumers’ 12-month inflation expectations increased in November, and the proportion of consumers expecting interest rates to rise ticked down to about 50%. At the same time, the share of consumers who believe a recession is “very likely” over the next year fell, but the share thinking the economy is already in a recession rose for the fourth consecutive month.

Buying plans for cars stepped down in November, as did purchasing plans for homes. Consumers’ plans for buying big-ticket items fell in November, with purchasing plans for household appliances and most electronics decreasing. Consumers’ intentions to purchase more services also declined following an uptick in October; however, planned spending on health care jumped to the second-highest service expenditure. Overall, consumers’ views of their current and future financial situation weakened from October.

The Producer Price Index for final demand (also known as wholesale prices) rose 0.3% over the month in September, after prices edged down 0.1% in August. Over the year, producer prices moved up 2.7% in September, unchanged from August. Meanwhile, prices for final demand excluding foods, energy and trade services increased 0.1% over the month in September after rising 0.3% in August. Prices for these goods advanced 2.9% from September 2024.

Within final demand, prices for services stayed the same in September after decreasing 0.3% in August. Meanwhile, prices for goods jumped 0.9%, the largest increase since February 2024. Within the final demand services index, prices for airline passenger services moved up 4.0%, while margins for machinery and equipment wholesaling fell 3.5%. Within the final demand goods index, prices for final demand energy climbed 3.5%, accounting for two-thirds of the September increase.

Processed goods for intermediate demand stepped up 0.4% in September, following a 0.4% increase in August. More than half of the September advance can be attributed to an 11.8% jump in the gasoline index. On the other hand, the index for industrial electric power declined 2.0%. Over the year, the index rose 3.8%, the largest 12-month increase since January 2023.

Meanwhile, prices for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand inched up 0.1% in September, after falling 1.8% in August. The small growth was led by a 1.9% increase in unprocessed foodstuffs and feedstuffs. At the same time, prices for unprocessed energy materials declined 3.0%. Over the year, prices for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand rose 3.5%, the largest 12-month gain since the 6.5% rise in March.

In November, Texas factory activity expanded and at a notably faster pace than the prior month. The production index increased from 5.2 to 20.5, jumping above the average of 9.6. The new orders and capacity utilization indexes turned positive, rising 6.5 points to 4.8 and 20.5 points to 19.4, respectively. Meanwhile, shipments climbed 9.3 points to 15.1.

Despite the improvement of nearly every indicator in November, perceptions of manufacturing business conditions worsened, with the general business activity index falling 5.4 points to -10.4. Meanwhile, the outlook decreased 6.0 points to -6.3. On the other hand, the uncertainty index declined 6.5 points to 15.7, falling just below the series average of 17.2.

Labor market indicators suggest a slight reduction in headcounts but a dramatic rise in the workweek in November, with the employment index inching down 0.8 points to 1.2 and the hours worked index soaring 15.4 points to 9.9. Nearly 17.1% of firms reported net hiring while a smaller percentage (15.9%) noted net layoffs.

Price and wage pressures accelerated somewhat in November. The prices paid for raw materials index moved up 1.9 points to 35.3. Meanwhile, the prices received for finished goods index increased 3.1 points to 10.8. The wages and benefits index rose 1.2 points to 15.4, staying below the series average of 21.

The outlook for future manufacturing activity strengthened in November, with the future production index jumping 12.7 points to 33.7. Furthermore, the future general business activity index and future company outlook both moved up, increasing to 11.0 and 16.2, respectively.

Manufacturing activity in the Fifth District declined in November and at a faster pace than the previous month, with the composite manufacturing index falling from -4 to -15. Meanwhile, the local business conditions index plummeted from -1 in October to -20 in November. Despite current weakness, manufacturers are more optimistic about the future, with the outlook for future local business conditions turning positive, rising from -5 in October to 1 in November. The Fifth District consists of Virginia, Maryland, the Carolinas, the District of Columbia and most of West Virginia.

Among its components, shipments fell back into negative territory, plunging from 4 to -14. New orders remained negative and contracted at a faster pace, dropping from -6 to -22 in November. Employment improved slightly, ticking up from -10 to -7, and the vendor lead time index rose from 6 to 12. Meanwhile, the share of firms reporting backlogs worsened, sinking from -16 to -23. The average growth rate of prices paid and prices received both quickened in November.

Looking ahead, firms expect both price indexes to increase in the next 12 months, with prices paid rising at a faster rate and prices received at a slower rate than forecasted in October. Expectations for future shipments jumped from 13 to 25, while new orders increased from 12 to 26. Expectations for backlogs moved up from -12 to 3. Meanwhile, firms’ expectations about equipment and software spending remained negative but improved from -6 to -4. On the other hand, expectations for capital expenditures worsened, falling from 1 to -8. In sum, businesses in the Fifth District are more optimistic about future business conditions while remaining pessimistic about future investment plans.

Existing home sales increased 1.2% in October and 1.7% over the year. Housing inventory moved down to 1.52 million units, reflecting a 0.7% drop from September but a 10.9% jump from last year. The median existing home price was $415,200, up 2.1% from last year. The Midwest and South posted monthly increases in existing home sales, while the Northeast saw no change, and the West registered a decline in October.

Single-family home sales rose 0.8% from September and 1.9% from October 2024, with the median price increasing 2.2% from last year to $420,600. Condo and co-op sales increased 5.4% over the month but stayed the same over the year at 390,000 units in October. Meanwhile, the median price for condos and co-ops inched up 0.9% from the prior year to $363,700.

Homes were typically on the market for 34 days in October, up from 33 days in September and 29 days in October 2024. First-time buyers made up 32% of sales in October, up from 30% in September and 27% in October 2024.

The S&P Global Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI fell from 52.5 to 51.9 in November, a four-month low, but remained positive. This continues the trend in business conditions with 10 of the past 11 months signaling growth. Factory production and new order growth both decreased in November, with new orders driving the weakening in the PMI. Meanwhile, export orders declined for the fifth consecutive month, increasing downside risks to production in December.

Inventories continued to grow in November as the stock of finished goods rose to the highest level in survey history. At the same time, supplier delivery times lengthened for a third consecutive month, with respondents linking the increase to tariff-related supply constraints. Manufacturers’ input cost inflation declined to the lowest level since February but continued to remain high by historical norms. Meanwhile, selling prices for goods grew in November but stayed below rates seen in recent months. Overall, price increases slowed for manufacturers but accelerated for the service industry.

Overall business activity climbed to a four-month high, edging up from 54.6 in October to 54.8 in November. Again, this reading was accompanied by the largest rise in new business seen in 2025, led by the services sector and an increase in manufacturing output. Overall, new orders growth was the largest seen since December 2024 alongside a buildup of unsold stock. Employment rose for the 11th time in the past 12 months; however, companies showed a reluctance to take on staff as the rate of job creation continues to slow.

Meanwhile, optimism about future business conditions jumped in November to its highest level this year. The optimism reflects reduced concerns about tariffs and political disruptions, boosted by the end of the government shutdown. In addition, companies are hopeful for greater policy support, including lower interest rates and government fiscal stimulus.

New orders for manufactured goods increased 1.4% in August, following a 1.3% decline in July. Meanwhile, new orders for manufactured goods grew 3.3% over the year. When excluding transportation, new orders inched up 0.1% over the month and 0.6 year-over-year in August. Orders for durable goods rose 2.9%, following a 2.8% drop in July. Year to date, durable goods orders are up 7.0%. Nondurable goods orders edged down 0.1% in August after increasing 0.3% in July. Nondurable goods orders are down 0.2% over the year.

New orders for defense aircraft and parts, which continue to be volatile this year, led the increase in durable goods orders, surging 48.4%, following July’s 0.6% bump. In August, the largest monthly decrease occurred in material handling equipment, which fell 5.7% after rising 2.6% the prior month. The largest over-the-year changes occurred in nondefense aircraft and parts (up 129.2%) and mining, oil field and gas field machinery (down 5.3%).

Factory shipments declined 0.1% in August, after stepping up 0.9% in July. Shipments over the year rose 1.1%. Shipments excluding transportation inched down 0.1% in August, following a 0.5% gain the previous month. Shipments for durable goods fell 0.2% in August, following a 1.5% increase in July, and are up 2.5% year to date. Meanwhile, nondurable goods shipments decreased 0.1% after rising 0.3% the prior month and are down 0.2% year to date.

Unfilled orders for all manufacturing industries increased 0.6% in August, after remaining flat in July. Unfilled orders over the year jumped 7.7%. Inventories rose 1.4% year-over-year. The inventories-to-shipments ratio remained unchanged at 1.56 in August. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio for durable goods moved up to 6.93 in August from 6.86 in July.

Manufacturing activity increased further in the Tenth District in November, with the month-over-month composite index rising 2 points to 8 from October. Meanwhile, expectations for future activity remained positive but declined 5 points to 9. The month-over-month rise in activity was due to increases in both durable and nondurable manufacturing, with production rising in November. On the other hand, the new orders index turned negative. Shipments continued to rise and at a faster pace than the prior month, while new orders for exports decreased, but at a slightly slower pace than the prior month. The Tenth Federal Reserve District encompasses the western third of Missouri; all of Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Wyoming; and the northern half of New Mexico.

The production index rose from 15 to 18, while the new orders index declined from 1 to -2, turning negative for the first time since June. The new orders for exports index remained negative but inched up from -4 to -3 over the month. The employment index jumped in November from 1 to 11, while the average employee workweek index improved from -3 to 1. The backlog of orders weakened from 1 to -4. Both the pace of growth for prices received and prices paid fell month-over-month, with raw material prices decreasing from 41 to 36, and prices received declining 6 points to 13. Over the year, prices received and paid also decreased, moving down to 50 and 64, respectively.

In November, survey respondents were asked special questions about changes in employment and wages. Approximately 35% of firms expect to increase employment, 50% anticipate no change and 15% predict employment to decline. When asked about wages, 12% reported they plan to increase wages and salaries by more than in the past few years, 34% aim to increase by similar amounts in recent years and 29% intend to increase by less than in the past.

Manufacturing activity in New York State increased in November, with the headline general business conditions index rising 8.0 points to 18.7. The new orders index jumped 12.2 points to 15.9, while the shipments index advanced 2.4 points to 16.8. Unfilled orders declined 1.9 points to -5.8, while inventories climbed 7.7 points to 6.7, indicating business inventories have started to grow after shrinking recently. Meanwhile, delivery times continued to increase, and supply availability ticked down 0.8 points to 11.5.

Employment increased slightly in November, with the index for the number of employees inching up 0.4 points to 6.6. At the same time, the average employee workweek surged to 7.7 from -4.1 in October, signaling a notable increase in hours worked. The prices paid index fell 3.4 points to 49.0, while the prices received index moved down 3.2 points to 24.0, reflecting a slowdown in the pace of price increases.

In November, firms’ optimism regarding the future pulled back from last month’s recent high but remained positive. The future business activity index dropped 11.2 points to 19.1. In the next six months, new orders are still expected to increase, but at a weaker pace than last month at 23.3. The future employment index moved up to 11.9, showing continued anticipation for employment growth over the next six months. Meanwhile, input prices are expected to rise at a slightly slower pace, decreasing from 65.0 to 62.5, while selling price expectations are forecasted to decline minimally, falling 2.4 points to 41.3. Furthermore, capital spending plans strengthened in November, moving up from -2.9 to 11.5.