Rising Inflation Concerns Add to Consumer Uncertainty
Consumer sentiment fell for a second month in a row in February, declining nearly 10% from January to an index reading of 64.7. All five components fell this month, led by a 19% drop in buying conditions for durables due to looming tariff anxiety. Both views of personal finances and the short-run economic outlook declined around 10%, while the long-run economic outlook decreased 6%, the lowest reading since November 2023. Sentiment fell for Democrats and Independents but was unchanged for Republicans, revealing ongoing political division and disagreement about new economic policies.
Year-ahead inflation expectations rose from 3.3% to 4.3% in February, the highest reading since November 2023 and well above the pre-pandemic range of 2.3–3.0%. Long-run inflation expectations also edged up from 3.2% to 3.5%, the largest monthly increase since May 2021. Like the trends in broader sentiment, concerns about future inflation trends rose for Independents and Democrats but fell slightly for Republicans.