News

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. fell 0.4% to 99.5 in October, following a 0.3% decline in September. Over the past six months (April to October 2024), the LEI has decreased 2.2%, which is slightly worse than the 2.0% decline in the prior six months (October 2023 to April 2024). Weakness in new factory orders continued to be the most significant drag on the index.

In October, manufacturing hours worked fell by the most since December 2023, while unemployment insurance claims rose and building permits declined, partly due to the impact of hurricanes. In addition, the yield curve inversion continued to weigh on the LEI. On the bright side, the LEI stopped signaling an impending recession in October.

Meanwhile, the Coincident Economic Index was unchanged for a second consecutive month at 112.8 but has increased 0.8% over the past six months. On the other hand, the Lagging Economic Index inched down 0.1% in October to 118.7 and has contracted 0.8% over the past six months, which partially reversed the 1.2% growth over the prior six-month period (October 2023 to April 2024).