News & Insights

Manufacturing activity increased in the Tenth District in October, with the month-over-month composite index rising 2 points to 6 from September. Meanwhile, expectations for future activity jumped 7 points to 14. The Tenth Federal Reserve District encompasses the western third of Missouri; all of Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Wyoming; and the northern half of New Mexico. The month-over-month rise in activity was due to increases in both durable and nondurable manufacturing. New order growth slowed, while production jumped. Shipments rose, while new orders for exports decreased, but at a slower pace than the prior month.

The production index rose from 4 to 15, while the new orders index decreased from 2 to 1, but remained positive. The new orders for exports index remained negative but stepped up from -9 to -4 over the month. The employment index fell in October but remained positive, dropping from 7 to 1, while the average employee workweek index declined from 3 to -3. The backlog of orders improved from -13 to 1. Both the pace of growth for prices received and paid grew month-over-month, with raw material prices ticking up from 40 to 41 and prices received increasing 6 points to 19. On the other hand, over the year, both prices received and paid rose at a slower pace, decreasing 3 points each to 52 and 71, respectively.

In October, survey respondents were asked about changes in profit margins and artificial intelligence usage. Approximately 55% of firms reported a decrease in profit margin this year, while 17% cited no change and 28% noted increases. In 2026, 38% of firms expect a decrease in profit margins, 22% anticipate no change and 40% predict an increase. Additionally, 67% of firms reported that AI has not affected their business plans. Meanwhile, 12% of firms expanded their use of AI this year, 13% started using AI and 8% have not incorporated AI but plan to in the future.