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Production Increases, Tariffs Continue to Weigh on Business Confidence

The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 52.0 in September, down slightly from the August reading of 53.0. New orders increased for the ninth consecutive month, although at a slower rate and below the survey average. Tariffs continued to hit exports, particularly to Canada and Mexico, and lead to increased input and output costs in September. Nonetheless, output price inflation slowed to its weakest pace since January.

Despite a slowdown in demand growth leading to weaker output gains, production rose sufficiently to allow stocks of finished goods to rise for the second consecutive month amid worries over tariffs and supply-side uncertainty. Meanwhile, delivery times lengthened in September due to difficulties importing goods and stock shortages.

Although tariffs continued to weigh on business confidence, overall business expectations improved slightly compared to August. Many manufacturers anticipate an increase in sales over the next year, and some see tariffs as driving expansions in domestic production. Furthermore, despite ongoing uncertainty related to trade and government policies, many manufacturers increased employment levels in September.

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