News & Insights

Manufacturing activity fell slightly in the Tenth District in November, while expectations for future activity rose. The Tenth Federal Reserve District encompasses the western third of Missouri; all of Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Wyoming; and the northern half of New Mexico. The month-over-month decline in activity was driven primarily by nondurable goods falling modestly, particularly paper and petroleum products, while durable goods activity was flat. All month-over-month indexes were mixed, with half slightly negative and half slightly positive.

Both production and new orders fell slightly, while employment stayed steady. Backlog of orders continues to have the lowest reading at -14. The year-over-year composite index for factory activity fell, as employment, supplier delivery time and raw material inventories all fell further. On the other hand, new orders and capital expenditures improved year-over-year but new orders remained negative. The future composite index increased slightly, driven by high expectations for future production and new orders. Employment and capital expenditures are also expected to grow in the next six months.

This month, survey respondents were asked about employment expectations over the next year. About half of firms (52%) expect to leave employment levels unchanged over the next year, while 37% plan to increase employment and 11% expect to decrease. Firms were also asked if they’ve been raising starting wages for new hires. About a quarter of firms (23%) have raised new hires’ wages for most job categories, while 35% have for only select job categories. About another quarter (24%) have not raised new hires’ wages, while 18% of firms surveyed are not actively hiring.