Policy and Legal

The previous administration’s significant regulatory changes issued under the Clean Air Act—in particular, its unworkable tightening of allowable soot levels—will create hardship for local economies and must be revised, the NAM told the House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Environment ahead of a hearing today.

• Manufacturers that fail to meet the National Ambient Air Quality Standards will be unable to obtain permits to either construct new facilities or expand existing facilities, the NAM pointed out.

What’s going on: In 2024, the Environmental Protection Agency lowered the primary annual standard for fine particulate matter (PM2.5, or soot) from 12 micrograms per cubic meter to 9 μg/m3 .

• “By lowering the standard to 9 μg/m3, which is essentially the same as the background levels that naturally occur in the environment across the nation, the Biden EPA was increasing the number of industrial centers and U.S. population hubs that would be placed into nonattainment status,” NAM Managing Vice President of Policy Charles Crain said.
• In the past 25 years, thanks to manufacturer-developed technologies, U.S. air quality has seen a 37% reduction in PM2.5, Crain continued, adding that an EPA analysis found that less than 20% of PM2.5 emissions come from industrial processes or stationary fuel consumption. Most of it is from sources well outside manufacturers’ control, such as wildfires and crop and livestock dust.

Why it’s important: Enacting the Biden-era tightened standards would mean severe economic losses for the U.S., the NAM told the subcommittee.

• An NAM-commissioned Oxford Economics study found that a standard just slightly stricter than the one set by the Biden administration—8 μg/m3—“would result in a loss of $162.4 billion to $197.4 billion in economic activity and put 852,100 to 973,900 jobs at risk, both directly from manufacturing and indirectly from supply chain spending.”

What they’re doing: In today’s hearing, the House Energy and Commerce Committee discussed two draft pieces of legislation, both supported by the NAM, that would reform the process for establishing NAAQS, which the Clean Air Act mandates the EPA set. The measures include:

• The Clean Air and Economic Advancement Reform (CLEAR) Act, which would make the NAAQS process more workable for manufacturers while “maintaining the regulatory guardrails that protect the health and welfare of our local communities,” according to the NAM; and
• The Clean Air and Building Infrastructure Improvement Act, which “seeks to inject clearer guidance into the process for obtaining preconstruction permits and meeting compliance requirements under a revised NAAQS.”

Our take: “Manufacturers strongly support the Energy and Commerce Committee’s efforts to address policy challenges with the NAAQS and to explore solutions that will pave the way for greater investment in the infrastructure that will allow America to compete in the 21st century,” Crain concluded.

The U.S. produced a record amount of energy in 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

What’s going on: “U.S. total energy production was more than 103 quadrillion British thermal units in 2024, a 1% increase from the previous record set in 2023. Several energy sources—natural gas, crude oil, natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, solar and wind—each set domestic production records last year.”

The details: Natural gas has been the primary source of American domestic energy production—accounting for approximately 28% of total energy production last year—every year since 2011.

• Crude “was a record 13.2 million barrels per day in 2024, 2% more than the previous record set in 2023.”
• Natural gas plant liquids, which are fuels extracted from the processing of natural gas such as ethane and propane, totaled a record 4 trillion cubic feet in 2024, up 7% from 2023 and accounting for approximately 9% of total U.S. energy production that year.

Other sources: Solar, wind and biofuels also set records in 2024.

• Solar and wind production increased by 25% and 8%, respectively, as new generating capacity was added.
• Biofuels—which comprise biodiesel, renewable diesel and ethanol, as well as other biofuels like sustainable aviation fuel—accounted for “a record 1.4 million barrels per day, up 6% from previous records set in 2023.”
• Output from geothermal declined slightly from 2023.

The NAM says: “This data is clear evidence of the strength and success of an all-of-the-above energy strategy,” said NAM Director of Energy and Resources Policy Michael Davin.

• “Given the growth of artificial intelligence and data centers, we will continue to need record levels of energy generation. By continuing down this path, we could reach our goal of U.S. energy dominance on the world stage.”

Manufacturing employment dipped slightly in May, losing 8,000 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the monthly employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nonfarm payrolls overall added 139,000 jobs last month.

The details: “The unemployment rate held at 4.2% in May and has remained in a narrow range of 4.0% to 4.2% since May 2024.”

• Meanwhile, nonfarm payrolls have averaged a monthly gain of 149,000 over the past 12 months, in line with the reading from May.

In manufacturing: “In manufacturing, the average workweek was little changed at 40.1
hours, and overtime was unchanged at 2.9 hours.”

• Meanwhile, average hourly earnings in manufacturing crept up from $35.11 in April to $35.28 in May on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The long view: Manufacturing employment has declined over the past year to date, yet remains above pre-pandemic levels, with 12,761,000 workers in May. The sector averaged 12,648,000 employees pre-pandemic (2017–2019).

The NAM says: “In order to support manufacturing growth and job creation in the U.S., manufacturers are calling on Congress to pass the One Big Beautiful Bill Act swiftly and make pro-manufacturing tax policies permanent,” said NAM Managing Vice President of Policy Charles Crain.

The artificial intelligence–driven rise in energy demand from the tech sector is adding more strain to the U.S. power grid, boosting the risk of outages to “new highs,” regional power market executives said at a regulatory conference this week (POLITICO Pro’s ENERGYWIRE, subscription).

What’s going on: “Grid rules developed during periods of relatively slow growth aren’t equipped for the demands of Silicon Valley’s investment in artificial intelligence, extreme weather shocks and deep national and state political divisions over energy and climate policy, grid operators told members of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.”

• PJM Interconnection, which has 67 million customers in the eastern U.S., forecasts a 32-gigawatt power demand increase through 2030, “of which 30 is from data centers,” CEO Manu Asthana told FERC.
• Southwest Power Pool, with approximately 19 million customers in the Great Plains states, said it projects peak demand “to be as much as 75% higher 10 years from now,” largely due to data centers and electrification.

Why the outage threat is worsening: Extreme weather events and greater use of weather-dependent energy sources such as wind and solar make “outages … 125 times more likely to happen [now] than eight years ago.”

What’s needed: C-suite leadership told regulators there are steps that can—and must—be taken to mitigate the worsening risk. These include:

• Stabilized market rules and “find[ing] that intersection between reliability and affordability that works both for consumers and suppliers, and that intersection is getting harder and harder to find”;
• “[M]uch deeper insight” into future electricity supply and demand and probabilities of extreme weather;
• More and better real-time information about the effect of dangerous storms on gas pipeline deliveries to electric turbines;
• “[S]tronger modeling of fuel and capacity performance to assess reliability risk”; and
• The establishment of an agreed-upon profile of the risks operators likely face.

Adding to the problem: Making matters worse are the vastly different climate policies between states, which put regional power markets “in an impossible position,” FERC Chair Mark Christie said at the conference.

• One possible solution: give states more responsibility for fixing grid reliability problems on their own.

The NAM says: As the NAM recently told the House’s AI and Energy Working Group, led by Rep. Julie Fedorchak (R-ND), “A reliable, resilient modern grid is required to enable the historic growth in data centers, which in turn can contribute to manufacturing growth.”

Mexico’s first judicial elections occurred on Sunday, and the results, while not yet completely final, raise questions about the integrity of the country’s judges going forward (AP News).

State of play: With more than 98% of the vote tallied as of Tuesday night, President Claudia Sheinbaum’s party is poised to control the Supreme Court, with a majority of judges holding ideological or political ties to the ruling party.

• Experts, allied nations and companies that do business in Mexico—including manufacturers—have voiced concerns that judicial elections will turn the judiciary into a political arm of the president’s party.

The background: Before leaving office, Sheinbaum’s mentor and predecessor President Andrés Manuel López Obrador forced through a controversial reform mandating elections for judges.

• The NAM has issued multiple warnings since these reforms were first proposed last year, telling Mexican officials in person that companies investing in Mexico need assurance that their portfolios will be protected under the new judicial regime.
• “We’re concerned that some of the reforms as proposed could harm Mexico’s standing as an attractive place to do business,” NAM Vice President of International Policy Andrea Durkin said on the “Imagen Empresarial” (“Corporate Image”) podcast in September. “Manufacturers pay attention to how banks are factoring these potential changes to the constitution into Mexico’s risk profile.”

More to come: “Votes were still being counted for the majority of the 2,600 federal, state and local judge positions up for grabs in Sunday’s elections.”

The NAM says: “A lack of confidence in Mexico’s judicial system could imperil future U.S. investments, particularly at a time of great uncertainty in trade relations between our countries,” said Durkin today.

Some economists are questioning the accuracy of recent U.S. inflation data—and say it could have big economic implications (The Wall Street Journal, subscription).

What’s going on: “The Bureau of Labor Statistics, the office that publishes the inflation rate, told outside economists this week that a hiring freeze at the agency was forcing the survey to cut back on the number of businesses where it checks prices.”

• In the April inflation report, government statisticians had to use a less precise price-change measurement method than they had used previously.

Why it’s important: The staffing shortage poses questions about the accuracy of recent and coming inflation reports, economists say.

The details: To determine the inflation rate, hundreds of government staffers known as enumerators disperse across U.S. cities, checking—often at brick-and-mortar locations—how much businesses are charging for goods and services.

• Statisticians pull that data into the consumer price index, which shows how the cost of living is changing for Americans.
• If enumerators can’t find specific prices, they make educated guesses based on close substitutes.
• But in April, with the hiring freeze on, they often had to “base their guesses on less comparable products or other regions of the country—a process called different-cell imputation—much more often than usual, according to the BLS.”

The effect: In the April inflation data, 29% of price guesses—a percentage twice as high as any month in the past five years—were made using these less-accurate comparisons.

• One economist told the Journal: “We don’t know if this is a big issue or a small issue, but we just know that directionally, it’s making things worse.”

President Trump on Tuesday evening signed a proclamation that doubled Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum and derivative products from 25% to 50%.

Why it matters: The move marks a significant escalation in trade policy, with no exemptions or exclusions—and has immediate implications for manufacturers relying on imported metals.

The details: The new rates took effect at 12:01 a.m. EDT on June 4. There is no exemption for goods on water.

• The proclamation builds on a Feb. 10 executive order that reinstated 25% tariffs on imports of steel, raised tariffs on aluminum from 10% to 25%, revoked all country exemptions and quotas, terminated all general production exclusions granted by the Department of Commerce and rescinded the department’s authority to process any new or renew any product exclusion requests.
• Unpublished annexes are expected to provide more clarity on product scope. Guidance from U.S. Customs and Border Protection is anticipated in the coming days.

Zoom out: President Trump says domestic production capacity remains underutilized and foreign producers continue to flood the U.S. market with low-priced goods—undercutting the competitiveness of the U.S. steel and aluminum industries.

• “Increased tariffs will more effectively counter foreign countries that continue to offload low-priced, excess steel and aluminum in the U.S.,” the proclamation reads.

Between the lines: The U.K. narrowly avoids higher tariffs—for now. Steel and aluminum from the U.K. remain at 25%, contingent on compliance with the U.S.–U.K. Economic Prosperity Deal. Rates could rise to 50% on or after July 9 if the U.K. falls short.

“Stacking” reshuffled: The June 3 proclamation shakes up the May 2 tariff “stacking” executive order with key changes:

• Canada and Mexico: Products subject to new 50% Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs are not subject to International Emergency Economic Powers Act fentanyl tariffs.
• IEEPA “reciprocal” tariffs: For countries facing “reciprocal” tariffs, companies must pay the 10% on all non-aluminum, non-steel content—or face “severe consequences” for underreporting.

The NAM says: Amid ongoing trade negotiations, manufacturers continue to press for zero-for-zero tariff outcomes with top export markets, so they have the certainty they need to plan, hire and compete—while also gaining access to the globally sourced raw materials and critical minerals necessary to make things in America.

• As NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons has stated, “If we see more trade agreements, tax reform legislation and more regulatory certainty—as part of our comprehensive manufacturing strategy—manufacturers win. And when manufacturers win, America wins.”

What’s next: Even at full throttle—every machine running, every job filled—the industry can only produce 84% of the inputs necessary to meet demand. That means at least 16% of manufacturing inputs must be imported to grow domestic manufacturing. Stay tuned for a new proposal the NAM is announcing tomorrow morning.

With a large number of Americans still lacking reliable internet access, some states are looking to space to fix the problem (The Wall Street Journal, subscription).

What’s going on: “From Maine to Nevada, states are starting to help some of the 24 million Americans who lack reliable broadband pay for satellite internet, rather than focusing such aid primarily on fiber connectivity as they have in the past.”

• Providers including Amazon have launched new endeavors to increase internet access worldwide, and they could benefit from these states’ push. Amazon’s Project Kuiper, for example, launched its first operational satellites in April and expects to deploy thousands more in the coming years.

The details: “Louisiana set aside $28.7 million of the funds it expects from a federal broadband subsidy program for satellite service, and Nevada has agreed to spend $12.7 million of its funds from the same program on Project Kuiper to serve about 4,400 rural addresses.”

• The Biden administration’s $42.5 billion Broadband Equity, Access and Deployment Program favored fiber over satellite, but the Commerce Department announced earlier this year it will overhaul the program to make it “tech-neutral.”

Why didn’t they do it sooner? Some officials have been reluctant to subsidize satellite internet because it provides slower service than fiber. It’s also susceptible to more frequent outages and requires satellite updates every few years.

• But it’s also quicker and less expensive to implement. (For some remote locations, the price tag for laying fiber can go well into six figures for a single home.)

A stopgap solution: To meet needs while BEAD is rejiggered, Maine and South Carolina have started state-funded programs that subsidize satellite broadband for some rural addresses—but only from a specific provider.

• Texas has a similar program and has accepted applications from providers, and following the Commerce Department’s BEAD announcement, West Virginia is considering spending some of its funds on satellite internet, too.

China dominates the global battery mineral market, from sourcing and mining to production, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

What’s going on: “China imported almost 12 million short tons of raw and processed battery minerals, accounting for 44% of interregional trade, and exported almost 11 million short tons of battery materials, packs and components, or 58% of interregional trade in 2023, according to regional UN Comtrade data.”

• These minerals’ importance will only increase as the appetite for electric vehicles and renewable energy technologies grow.
• However, as the NAM recently told the Commerce Department, Section 232 tariffs will not increase domestic sourcing of these critical minerals or decrease U.S. reliance on China for them.
• Instead, to shore up domestic critical minerals supply, the U.S. needs permitting reform, incentives for producers and enhanced trade relationships with partners other than China.

Mining and production: China either produces domestically or has large ownership stakes in companies that produce these minerals.

• In 2023, the country produced about 18% (33,000 short tons) of the world’s mined lithium, and Chinese firms “control 25% of the world’s lithium mining capacity.”
• Chinese companies also have sizable investments in mining operations in the “lithium triangle,” an area in Chile, Argentina and Bolivia that holds half of the world’s lithium stores.
• “China produced 79%, or 1.27 million short tons, of the world’s natural graphite in 2024, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.”
• Chinese firms own 80% of cobalt production in Congo-Kinshasa, the location of more than 50% of the world’s cobalt production.

Trade: After production, raw battery minerals are exported—and in 2023, China accounted for nearly half (46%) of global raw battery mineral import trade.

• That year, the world’s largest lithium producer, Australia, sent almost all its lithium exports to China.

Processing: China has the global critical minerals processing market cornered, too.

• It processes more than 90% of the world’s graphite.
• In 2022, “Chinese companies accounted for over two-thirds of the world’s cobalt and lithium processing capacity.”
• The next year, China imported 20% of global processed battery minerals, mostly African cobalt. Also in 2023, China exported 58% of the world’s processed battery minerals, primarily synthetic graphite, elsewhere in Asia and to Oceania.

Battery materials manufacture and trade: “China accounted for 53% of the world’s battery material export trade in 2023.”

• In 2022, the country made 85% of the world’s anodes, 82% of its electrolytes, 74% of its separators and 70% of its cathodes.
• In 2023, China controlled almost 85% of “battery cell production capacity by monetary value.”

If the administration wants manufacturing in the U.S. to succeed, it needs a planned strategy—one that includes extending the pro-growth provisions from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and gets the tax bill containing most of President Trump’s legislative agenda passed quickly. That was the message from NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons on Fox Business’ “Maria Bartiromo’s Wall Street” last week.

What’s going on: “Manufacturers were very excited that we had a new president in January who said, ‘We’re going to get this … [tax] bill done. We’re going to extend the cuts from 2017,’” Timmons told show host Maria Bartiromo on May 30 on location at the 2025 Reagan National Economic Forum in Simi Valley, California. “But now we have the uncertainty … that really requires this bill to be done as soon as possible. It’s urgent now.”

• The Senate returned this week from its Memorial Day recess with the legislative agenda as its top priority.
• The GOP hopes to extend the TCJA tax cuts permanently, while Democrats want the nonpartisan parliamentarian of the United States to determine whether an extension without an end date would violate the Senate’s Byrd rule.

Why it’s important: More than 85% of manufacturers in the U.S. say Congress must preserve the TCJA’s provisions in response to trade uncertainty, according to the NAM’s latest Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey, which Bartiromo cited.

• At risk if it doesn’t preserve the measures: some 6 million jobs and a $1 trillion economic hit.

Certainty on trade: But more is needed, Timmons said.

• The trillions of dollars in U.S. investments secured recently by the administration are definite wins—but only “as long as we have that strategy in place,” which, in addition to sound tax policy, includes regulatory certainty.
• “Trade is going to be critical,” Timmons told Bartiromo. “We need to have the certainty around whatever the rules of the game are regarding our trading practices and the work we do with our trading partners, because if we don’t have the right policies in place, and imports do end up costing us a lot of money for critical inputs for manufacturing, we can’t build those facilities.”
• For every dollar of manufactured inputs imported to the U.S., “we get $1.40 of output,” Timmons went on. “And so if we tariff everything the same, we may be in a little bit of trouble when it comes to making those investments.”

The latest resources for the NAM’s tax campaign may be found on the “Manufacturing Wins” webpage.