Policy and Legal

The newly established House of Representatives’ AI and Energy Working Group is seeking information on the increase in energy demand we can expect due to the growing use of artificial intelligence (POLITICO Pro, subscription).

What’s going on: Group lead Rep. Julie Fedorchak (R-ND)—who was North Dakota’s head utility regulator for more than a decade prior to being elected to Congress last year—discussed the new working group with us Tuesday at NAM headquarters.

• Rep. Fedorchak spoke at an event at the NAM on how the U.S. can strengthen the electrical grid, advance permitting reform and support manufacturers investing in the latest energy technologies.
• The working group issued a request for information on Monday, “invit[ing] stakeholders to provide written responses” to questions under “three pillars,” according to the RFI document.

The details: These pillars are the following:

• American Energy Dominance and AI Energy Demands: The RFI “seeks to identify strategies to secure a stable, affordable and sustainable domestic energy supply capable of powering next-generation AI infrastructure.” Subtopics on which respondents are asked to inform the working group include oil and gas, nuclear, solar, geothermal and other power production methods.
• Securing the Energy Grid: A resilient, secure electrical grid is “essential” for AI systems and the larger “digital economy,” the document says. Permitting reform, electricity generation and baseload power are possible subtopics here.
• Strategic Competition: Outpacing China: “In an era of intensifying global rivalry, ensuring American technological and energy leadership is critical.” Some of the subtopics under this pillar are manufacturing, critical minerals and chips. 

Why it’s important: “To be AI dominant, we must first be energy dominant,” Rep. Fedorchak said in a statement, according to POLITICO Pro.

• “In 2024, data centers accounted for 4.3% of total U.S. power demand, and analysts predict this could climb to as much as 12% by 2030—more electricity than the entire state of Texas uses today. Yet the U.S. isn’t scaling up reliable baseload power quickly enough to support this rapid growth.”

How to respond: Responses are due by May 15 and should be emailed to [email protected].

If Congress doesn’t act soon, manufacturers could face higher costs—not just due to the new tariffs on goods from China, Canada and Mexico, but from expiring tax provisions, too, NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons told the Houston Business Journal (subscription) in an interview during the first leg of the NAM’s 2025 Competing to Win Tour. The interview was published late last week.

A quick recap: Tariffs on Chinese imports went into effect last month, and tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico began last Tuesday.

• Last Thursday, President Trump signed two executive orders adjusting the tariffs for Mexican and Canadian imports that qualify under the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement, allowing them to enter the U.S. duty-free. Goods that cannot claim USMCA preferential treatment are subject to the new tariffs.

Why it’s important: “With some tariffs against Mexico, Canada and China in effect, manufacturers and consumers could be facing higher prices as the industry is heavily reliant on imports of goods the U.S. does not manufacture,” the HBJ noted.

• “Trade is very important to manufacturers,” Timmons told the publication, adding that investments in domestic supply chains and manufacturing can take years to plan and develop, something that tariff policy should take into account.

The tax angle: The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act—which President Trump first laid out in a speech to the NAM Board during the same year—contained pro-growth tax provisions that were like “rocket fuel” for the manufacturing industry. But the continuation of those provisions is at stake: some of them have expired already, harming manufacturers, and others are scheduled to sunset at the end of this year.

What should be done: The impact of tariffs on manufacturers and consumers can be mitigated and the problem of expiring tax policies solved with a commonsense strategy from the administration and Congress, Timmons told the HBJ.

• On tariffs, there needs to “be some sort of a runway to allow us to start lower and then perhaps ramp up over time to give manufacturers the ability to pivot and make those long-term investment decisions here in the United States,” he said. “If [tariffs] are implemented in a very thoughtful, common-sense and strategic way, the impact on manufacturers will be minimized.”
• As for the tax provisions set to be eliminated, congressional leaders must remain focused on keeping them. “When President Trump signed those reforms in 2017, the following year, we had the best job creation in manufacturing that we’ve had in this country in 21 years,” Timmons said.

Manufacturers are increasingly worried about the future of trade and rising raw material costs, according to the Q1 2025 NAM Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey.
 
What’s going on: In the most recent survey, conducted from Feb. 11 to Feb. 28, trade uncertainties moved to the top of the list of manufacturers’ concerns—with 76.2% of respondents citing them as their primary worry. Increased raw material costs came in second, cited by 62.3% of those surveyed.

• In fact, manufacturers expect prices on their companies’ product lines to go up by 3.6% in the next year, an increase from 2.3% in Q4 2024 and the highest since Q3 2022, when inflation was more than 8%.
• Manufacturers also anticipate the cost of raw materials and other inputs to rise 5.5% in the next year, the highest expected rate of increase since Q2 2022, when inflation was between 8% and 9%.
• Manufacturers foresee export sales to increase just 0.1% in the next year. That’s the lowest anticipated rise since Q2 2020 at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.
• In addition, the percentage of manufacturers with a positive outlook for their company inched down from the last quarter, to 69.7% from 70.9%.

Taxes: Manufacturers also feel strongly that their businesses need the “rocket fuel” of the tax reform extension. If Congress fails to extend pro-manufacturing provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017:

• 69.35% of respondents said they would delay capital equipment purchases;
• 45.23% would delay hiring;
• 44.72% would pause operations expansions;
• 41.71% would limit R&D investment; and
• 40.20% would curb employee wages or benefits increases.

Our take: “The pressure of increased costs, trade instability and sluggish demand is dampening the sector’s momentum, making it more difficult for manufacturers to plan, invest and hire,” NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons wrote in a social post Thursday.

• “We are calling for a comprehensive manufacturing strategy that includes a commonsense trade policy in addition to making President Trump’s 2017 tax reforms permanent and more competitive, securing regulatory certainty, expediting permitting reform to unleash American energy dominance and key manufacturing projects and increasing the talent pool.”

Washington, D.C. – The National Association of Manufacturers released its Q1 2025 Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey, revealing growing concerns over trade uncertainties and increased raw material costs. Trade uncertainties surged to the top of manufacturers’ challenges, cited by 76.2% of respondents, jumping 20 percentage points from Q4 2024 and 40 percentage points from Q3 of last year. Increased raw material costs came in second, cited by 62.3% of respondents.

Trade-related challenges resulted in a small drop in manufacturers’ optimism: in the Q1 survey, 69.7% of survey respondents felt positive about their company’s outlook, down slightly from 70.9% in Q4 2024.

The survey underscores the immediate need for President Trump and Congress to implement a comprehensive manufacturing strategy that includes making President Trump’s 2017 tax reforms permanent and more competitive. If Congress fails to act now on extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, 69.35% of survey respondents said they would delay purchasing capital equipment, while 45.23% would hold off on hiring, 44.72% would stall expansion of operations, 41.71% would limit R&D investments and 40.20% would curb increases in employee wages or benefits.

“The pressure of increased costs, trade instability and sluggish demand is dampening the sector’s momentum, making it more difficult for manufacturers to plan, invest and hire,” said NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons. “We need greater predictability with a phase-in period for manufacturers to adjust to new trade realities, while also establishing clear exemptions for critical inputs—enabling reciprocity in manufacturing trade.

“Congress and the Trump administration must take decisive action to support manufacturers by providing increased certainty and clarity while implementing measures to ease the burden of rising costs. Our industry is counting on President Trump to make manufacturing in the United States greater than ever before, which is why we are calling for a comprehensive manufacturing strategy that includes a commonsense trade policy in addition to making President Trump’s 2017 tax reforms permanent and more competitive, securing regulatory certainty, expediting permitting reform to unleash American energy dominance and key manufacturing projects and increasing the talent pool.”

Key survey findings:

• Manufacturers expect raw material prices and other input costs to rise 5.5% over the next year. This marks the highest anticipated rate of increase since Q2 2022, when inflation hovered between 8% and 9%.
• Manufacturers expect prices on their company’s product line to increase 3.6% over the next 12 months, up from 2.3% in Q4 and the highest level since Q3 2022 when inflation was still more than 8%.
• Manufacturers expect export sales to increase just 0.1% over the next 12 months, the lowest level since Q2 2020—the height of the COVID-19 pandemic—highlighting challenges in global trade and demand.

The NAM releases these results to the public each quarter. Further information on the survey is available here.

-NAM-

The National Association of Manufacturers is the largest manufacturing association in the United States, representing small and large manufacturers in every industrial sector and in all 50 states. Manufacturing employs nearly 13 million men and women, contributes $2.93 trillion to the U.S. economy annually and accounts for 53% of private-sector research and development. The NAM is the powerful voice of the manufacturing community and the leading advocate for a policy agenda that helps manufacturers compete in the global economy and create jobs across the United States. For more information about the NAM or to follow us on Twitter and Facebook, please visit www.nam.org.

A day after President Donald Trump’s first address to Congress in his second term, the industry remains on edge amid the growing uncertainty of what’s being called a trade war by some in Washington.

What Congress is saying: We’re starting to see public comments from members of Congress on various topics in the president’s speech on Tuesday. Here’s what they’re saying.

Tax reform: House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO) committed yesterday to delivering a comprehensive tax bill to President Trump by Memorial Day, according to MarketWatch. Echoing NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons’ repeated calls for a swift tax deal, Chairman Smith emphasized the urgency of providing certainty to small businesses and working families, stating, “Failure is not an option.”

• “[W]e have to move this one big, beautiful bill as quickly as possible,” he said.
• In recent weeks, Timmons has leveraged the NAM’s public platform extensively—including through the NAM State of Manufacturing Address, television and radio interviews across the country, social media and op-eds in Ohio and Florida—to press Congress to act now and make the 2017 tax reforms permanent.

CHIPS: New Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH), the former lieutenant governor of the state, expressed support for the CHIPS and Science Act, emphasizing its bipartisan backing and importance of national security. “For the economic and national security of America, we need to make chips in the USA—I believe this is part of an America First agenda,” he wrote in a statement provided to The Columbus Dispatch.

• House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) indicated to Punchbowl that nothing would be discussed on the CHIPS and Science Act until the president’s FY 26 budget.
• Sen. Todd Young (R-IN) said that the president’s mention of the act in his speech was “not consistent with the extensive conversations we’ve had with the administration about the many successes and future of the CHIPS program and how it helps with our shared goal of creating a robust domestic chips supply.”

Trade and workforce: “As I’ve said, tariffs are a tool in the toolbox, but they must be strategic and support American jobs—not create uncertainty that undercuts our domestic manufacturing,” Rep. Debbie Dingell (R-MI) told the Detroit Free Press. “The domestic auto industry currently relies on an integrated North American supply chain, and our trade policies need to reflect that.”

• Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) zeroed in on implementation of any tariffs. “If you’re talking about tariffs that are going to be inflationary, causing all kinds of retaliation and disrupting the markets, I’m almost certainly against them,” he said in an interview with CQ Roll Call. “However, if you’re talking about tariffs that are used surgically … to be used judiciously and to build the economy, then I’m all for it.”
• For Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-ND), according to The Wall Street Journal (subscription), “It comes down to how long [the tariffs] would last.” He said you “can’t simply turn on and off an inflationary switch” or flip a switch to build manufacturing facilities in the U.S., “or even harder yet, get the workforce to fill those jobs that would be created, particularly at the same time as you’re shirking immigration.”

Big picture: “Manufacturers are already planning for 2026, and they need the certainty to invest and grow now. We’re seeing bipartisan interest in these priorities, and the NAM is building consensus to achieve exactly that and have even stronger champions for manufacturers in Congress to reinforce what we need to compete and win,” said NAM Executive Vice President Erin Streeter.

The Richard L. Trumka Protecting the Right to Organize Act, reintroduced this week, would harm manufacturers and their employees alike if it passes, the NAM and allied organizations told the Senate Tuesday.
 
What’s going on: The PRO Act, reintroduced Wednesday by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Rep. Bobby Scott (D-VA), purports to broaden labor protections for workers.

• In truth, however, it “would limit workers’ right to secret ballot union representation elections, allow government bureaucrats to unilaterally impose contracts on the private sector, trample free speech and debate, jeopardize industrial stability and limit opportunities for small businesses and entrepreneurs,” according to the Coalition for a Democratic Workplace, a group of organizations representing employers and employees. The NAM is a member.

Why it’s a problem: “The PRO Act is designed to push union representation on workers whether they want it or not,” the coalition said. The legislation would do this by:

• Limiting the right of employees to vote for or against union representation via secret ballot, instead instituting “card check”;
• Limiting employees’ right to free speech, effectively silencing debate;
• Giving the government unprecedented control over private-sector employment contracts;
• Requiring employers to give union organizers employees’ personal information without the employees’ consent;
• Eliminating right-to-work protections nationwide; and
• Allowing unions to choose a bargaining unit that maximizes its chances of winning an election instead of having the National Labor Relations Board choose a unit fairly.

The “ABC test”: In addition, the PRO Act would limit people’s opportunities for self-employment by imposing California’s failed “ABC test” on workers to determine whether they are independent contractors or employees.

• “The ABC test makes it very difficult for someone to work as an independent contractor by defining the term ‘employee’ very broadly,” the groups told the Senate. “Nationwide implementation would forcibly reclassify millions of workers who routinely say they do not want a traditional employee relationship and prize the flexibility and autonomy independent contracting provides.”    

Joint employment: The measure would also replace the existing standard for determining who is a “joint employer” under federal labor law with a much broader, more vague definition.

• “The current standard focuses on whether the potential employers have direct and immediate control over employees. The PRO Act standard, on the other hand, would establish joint employment liability based on indirect or even just reserved control.”
• “It would overturn decades of established labor law and undermine nearly every contractual relationship, from the franchise model to those between contractors and subcontractors and suppliers and vendors.”

The economic impact: The PRO Act would be economically devastating to companies, workers and the country, the coalition said.

• The measure’s independent worker classification alone could cost up to $57 billion nationwide, while its joint-employer standard would cost franchises as much as $33.3 billion annually.
• This would mean more than 350,000 job losses and a 93% spike in lawsuits.

In his first address to Congress in his second term, President Trump made it clear that tariffs are not just a temporary tool, but a fixture of his administration’s trade policy. The president discussed his vision for an “America First” strategy, which includes the tariffs that went into effect Tuesday and last month.

In his words: “Deals are being made,” he said. “That’s a combination of the election win and tariffs. It’s a beautiful word, isn’t it?”

• “If you don’t make your product in America … you will pay a tariff and, in some cases, a rather large one. Other countries have used tariffs against us for decades, and now it’s our turn to start using them against those other countries.”
• “On average [according to the president], the European Union, China, Brazil, India, Mexico and Canada … and countless other nations charge us tremendously higher tariffs than we charge them. It’s very unfair.”
• “[On April 2,] reciprocal tariffs kick in, and whatever they tariff us, other countries, we will tariff them…If they do nonmonetary tariffs to keep us out of their market, then we will do nonmonetary barriers to keep them out of our market.”

On Canada and Mexico: “[W]e have very large deficits with both of them. … We pay subsidies to Canada and to Mexico of hundreds of billions of dollars. And the United States will not be doing that any longer. We are not going to do it any longer.”

• “Tariffs are about making America rich again and making America great again, and it is happening, and it will happen rather quickly. There will be a little disturbance, but we are OK with that.”

The NAM’s take: Ahead of the speech, NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons pointed out in a statement that manufacturers—especially those with thin margins—are already feeling the pressure from new tariffs. “The stakes couldn’t be higher for manufacturers right now,” he said. The NAM highlighted some examples after the tariffs went into effect yesterday from both small and large manufacturers:

• A power-engineering manufacturer faces $25 million in additional costs from the Mexico tariffs alone, impacting the ability to supply U.S. utilities and industrial customers.
• A major consumer goods manufacturer is looking at $231 million new costs from tariffs from Mexico and Canada.
• A small copper manufacturer was forced to turn back 388,000 pounds of copper at the Canadian border when tariffs took effect, with future imports costing an extra $50,000 per truckload.

Comprehensive manufacturing strategy: “To mitigate the adverse effects of today’s tariffs,” Timmons said, “President Trump and Congress [need] to implement a comprehensive manufacturing strategy that would create predictability and certainty to invest, plan and hire.”

• That strategy should include making President Trump’s 2017 tax reforms permanent and more competitive, securing regulatory certainty, expediting permitting reform to unleash American energy dominance and key manufacturing projects, increasing the talent pool and implementing a commonsense trade policy, Timmons added.
• In recent weeks, including with the NAM State of Manufacturing Address, Timmons has been raising the alarm on the need to move now on preserving and extending the 2017 tax reforms in the face of the uncertainty and price pressures.

The bottom line: “Building things in America only works if we can sell them around the world,” said Timmons. He added this morning: “That’s why we’re urging President Trump and Congress to provide greater predictability with a phase-in period for manufacturers to adjust to new trade realities, while also establishing clear exemptions for critical inputs, enabling reciprocity in manufacturing trade.”

• “President Trump can make American manufacturing greater than ever before by negotiating a ‘zero for zero’ tariffs manufacturing trade deal with our major trading partners,” Timmons said.

Developing: This morning on Bloomberg TV, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick hinted publicly that he has heard the NAM and the industry’s urging for relief from tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports for products that comply with the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement—a signature achievement of President Trump’s first term.

“[T]he next phase of our plan to deliver the greatest economy is for this Congress to pass tax cuts for everybody,” President Trump said last night, reiterating the importance of this key manufacturing policy priority. “They’re in there. They’re waiting for you to vote,” he said.

The urgency: Even before price pressures from tariffs, the NAM’s study with EY showed that failing to act now could cost the U.S. 6 million jobs—including more than 1.1 million in manufacturing.

• In addition, approximately $540 billion in employee wages will be lost, and U.S. GDP will be reduced by $1.1 trillion.

The NAM says: “When President Trump signed these tax cuts into law, it was rocket fuel for manufacturing in America and made the U.S. economy more competitive on a global scale,” said Timmons last night. “That fuel is about to run out as key provisions have expired, and others are about to lapse. …We must ensure these historic, pro-growth manufacturing provisions are made permanent and even more competitive so manufacturers can plan, grow and succeed.”

• “Manufacturers need a deal now as they make decisions for investments in 2026 and beyond,” NAM Executive Vice President Erin Streeter said. “Every day we delay costs investments, jobs and opportunity.”

Making the case: Since igniting the sprint toward a tax deal with House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA), House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO) and Senate Finance Committee Chairman Mike Crapo (R-ID) at the Capitol in January, the NAM has kept the pressure on lawmakers.

• Yesterday during the president’s address to Congress, the NAM leveraged a new tax ad, “When Manufacturing Wins, America Wins,” to amplify its message even further.

Federal prosecutors have been ordered to prioritize the prosecution of “immigration-related violations,” according to a recent memo from U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi to all Justice Department employees.
 
What’s going on: The memo, sent Feb. 5, tasks U.S. Attorneys’ Offices across the U.S. with using “all available criminal statutes to combat the flood of illegal immigration … and to continue to support the Department of Homeland Security’s immigration and removal initiatives.” The offices are also required to track and report immigration-related cases and convictions.   
 
What it means: Under the new policy, employers that knowingly hire foreign workers who lack work authorization will face heightened risks of criminal prosecution.

• There will also be more criminal investigations into employers found to have committed workplace immigration violations, even unintentional ones.
• Companies that have a history of noncompliance will be prioritized for enforcement actions.
• The federal government will lean on state and local authorities to investigate and pursue immigration-related violations. Those that obstruct investigation efforts (which can include simply failing to comply or cooperate) could face criminal charges.
• Prosecution will not be limited to large companies.

Dive deeper: Read our partner law firm Fisher Phillips’ top five takeaways from the DOJ memo.

National Association of Manufacturers President and CEO Jay Timmons released the following statement ahead of President Donald Trump’s address to a joint session of Congress:

“The stakes couldn’t be higher for manufacturers right now. Many manufacturers are operating on thin margins, and the tariffs imposed today will further strain their resources. For example:

• A large manufacturer in the power-engineering sector that imports more than $100 million every year in components and products from Mexico now faces increasing costs of $25 million due to the tariffs. As a major supplier to the U.S. utility and industrial market, this will directly impact the ability for domestic utilities and industrial customers to maintain a safe, efficient and secure power grid.
• Another large consumer goods manufacturer indicated the tariffs on Mexico will cost their company $200 million, and the Canadian retaliatory tariffs will add another $31 million—totaling $231 million, or $1.15 million per day.
• A small copper manufacturer had nine truckloads of copper rod sitting at the Canadian border waiting to go through Customs when the tariffs went into effect, leading to 388,000 pounds of copper goods being returned to the supplier. If the tariffs remain in effect, bringing copper—a critical manufacturing input—into the U.S. would cost the manufacturer nearly $50,000 per truckload going forward.

“To mitigate the adverse effects of today’s tariffs, manufacturers call on President Trump and Congress to implement a comprehensive manufacturing strategy that would create predictability and certainty to invest, plan and hire in America. This strategy includes the following actions:

1. Make President Trump’s 2017 tax reforms permanent and more competitive now. When President Trump signed these tax cuts into law, it was rocket fuel for manufacturing in America and made the U.S. economy more competitive on a global scale. That fuel is about to run out as key provisions have expired, and others are about to lapse. If Congress fails to act, it will cost America 6 million jobs, including more than 1.1 million manufacturing jobs. We must ensure these historic, pro-growth manufacturing provisions are made permanent and even more competitive so manufacturers can plan, grow and succeed.
2. Restore regulatory certainty. Manufacturers are spending $350 billion each year just to comply with regulations—money that could be spent on expanding factories and production lines, hiring new workers or raising wages. President Trump has taken action already to streamline burdensome regulations starting with lifting the liquefied natural gas export ban, but we need to move faster to deliver on our industry’s potential.
3. Expedite permitting reform to unleash American energy. President Trump is already ending the war on America’s energy producers, but there is more work to do. America should be the undisputed leader in energy production and innovation, but we will not reach our full potential without permitting reform. We are seeing opportunities for energy dominance fade in the face of a permitting process that takes 80% longer than other major, developed nations.
4. Strengthen the manufacturing workforce. Over the past year, we have averaged 500,000 open manufacturing jobs in America—well-paying, life-changing careers. Manufacturers are struggling to fill critical jobs. We need a real workforce strategy that ensures we have the talent to grow, compete and lead.
5. Implement commonsense trade policies that open global markets fairly and effectively. Building things in America only works if we can sell them around the world. That’s why we’re urging President Trump and Congress to provide greater predictability and a clear runway for manufacturers to adjust to new trade realities, while also making way for exemptions for critical inputs, enabling reciprocity in manufacturing trade.

“Manufacturers are investing in America in record numbers, and President Trump is focused on strengthening manufacturing in the United States to grow our nation’s economy. We look forward to working with President Trump as he works to advance policies that will help manufacturers thrive and prosper because when manufacturing wins, America wins.”

-NAM-

The National Association of Manufacturers is the largest manufacturing association in the United States, representing small and large manufacturers in every industrial sector and in all 50 states. Manufacturing employs nearly 13 million men and women, contributes $2.93 trillion to the U.S. economy annually and accounts for 53% of private-sector research and development. The NAM is the powerful voice of the manufacturing community and the leading advocate for a policy agenda that helps manufacturers compete in the global economy and create jobs across the United States. For more information about the NAM or to follow us on Twitter and Facebook, please visit www.nam.org.